NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: Jaren Jackson Jr., Anthony Edwards Provide Value (Saturday, November 13)

NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: Jaren Jackson Jr., Anthony Edwards Provide Value (Saturday, November 13) article feature image
Credit:

Justin Ford/Getty Images. Pictured: Jaren Jackson

Who is ready for some weekend basketball props? I know I am! I have listed out three props that I like tonight, all of which are taking the Over. Two of the props include players looking for a bounce back game after disappointing last night. The other prop is my favorite of the day with the best value on the board.

We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.

NBA Player Props & Picks

Jaren Jackson Jr., Over 20.5 Points and Rebounds (-105)

Pelicans vs. Grizzlies Grizzlies -4
Time | TV 7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Best Book DraftKings

Seeing the Memphis Grizzlies as 4-point favorites over the 1-12 New Orleans Pelicans seems a bit surprising. I know the 6-6 Grizzlies aren’t that great, but they were the only team to beat the Golden State Warriors this season.

Maybe the books believe that Brandon Ingram will be back for the Pelicans tonight? Ingram has missed the last seven games due to injury and is once again listed as questionable to play tonight. Regardless if he plays or not, the risk of a blowout seems to be mitigated by this line. That is good news as the Pelicans have the second worst points differential this season at -11.1.

I do prefer Ingram to sit for the mere fact of Jaren Jackson Jr. could potentially get into foul trouble, which he seems to do very often. Jackson is tied for the fourth most fouls this season averaging 3.4 per game.  In my opinion, that is the only downside of taking this prop. Stop fouling Jaren Hackson!

Jackson has averaged 14.5 points per game and 5.8 rebounds per game. He should be able to feast on this matchup against the Pelicans. They have allowed the fifth most points in the paint this season while they have the league worst Defensive Rating at 113.2. Their one saving grace is Jonas Valanciunas has been incredible on the glass and in general this season.

Jackson has scored 19 points in back-to-back games. He has hit the Over on this prop in five straight games. In three of those five games, Jackson had over a 30% usage rate. Dillon Brooks may play again, which would limit the production of Jackson. However, in the one game Brooks played this season which was two games ago, Jackson still had 19 points and six rebounds.

The best value for this prop is on DraftKings and our projection is at 25.8 points and rebounds for Jackson tonight. This is my favorite prop on the board!


Isaiah Stewart, Over 16.5 Points and Rebounds (-110)

Raptors vs. Pistons Raptors -9.5
Time | TV 7:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Best Book DraftKings

After disappointing many people at least in the DFS world last night, I am going right back to the Isaiah Stewart well tonight with this Over 16.5 points and rebounds prop.

Stewart struggled with early foul trouble and then blowout last night as the Detroit Pistons lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points. Those issues may certainly be in play once again tonight, but I still think Stewart can get there.

The Toronto Raptors present a difficult matchup as they have allowed the fourth least points in the paint this season with 41.7 per game. They are also tied for third in rebounds allowed with 42.5 per game. However, they are dealing with some injuries in their front court. They will likely get Pascal Siakam back today, but Precious Achiuwa and Khem Birch are listed as questionable. Fred Van Vleet is also listed as questionable. He certainly isn’t a presence down low, but this game could certainly get closer if he were to sit.

On the season, Stewart is averaging 6.9 points per game and 7.1 rebounds per game. However, in our Action Labs Props Dashboard Stewart is projected for 20.1 points and rebounds tonight giving us great value on this prop.

A big reason why this prop is so appealing is Kelly Olynyk is out for the foreseeable future due to injury. He had been closing for this Pistons team over Stewart. The extra minutes that Stewart is expected to get tonight will be very beneficial to getting the Over on this prop. He only played 24 minutes last night, but I think he could be in line for close to or over 30 minutes tonight if this game stays competitive and he stays out of foul trouble.

The best value on this prop is at DraftKings. I would bet this up to 17.5.


Anthony Edwards, Over 22.5 Points (-110)

Clippers vs. Timberwolves Clippers -7
Time | TV 10:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Best Book DraftKings

Another Over prop tonight to end the night with Anthony Edwards over 22.5 points. Coming off of his worst game of the season where he shot 4-11 and had nine points and five turnovers, I like this bounce back spot with Edwards. His off night didn’t matter as the Timberwolves rolled the Lakers 107-83.

The game before he had a career-high 48 points as he lit up the best defensive team in the league the Golden State Warriors. Another defensive test tonight as the Los Angeles Clippers have the third best Defensive Rating this season.

Edwards still leads the Timberwolves in points with 24.4 per game and usage rate with 31.0%. He has taken a major leap this season, especially in the usage rate department where he has increased his usage rate by over 3% and has increased his field goal attempts to 21.3 per game. He is their go-to player.

The Timberwolves have actually already played the Clippers twice this season. However, both games were without D’Angelo Russell. Edwards averaged 22.5 points per game on 21.5 field goal attempts per game in those two meetings.

Edwards has scored over 22.5 points in seven of the Timberwolves first 11 games. I’d like to think he bounces back tonight with a great performance after putting up a season-low nine points last game. He hasn’t scored in the single digits for points since February 23rd of last season.

We’re sticking with DraftKings on this Edwards prop as it has the best value.


How would you rate this article?