Best NBA Player Props: Will Montrezl Harrell Have a Big Game against the Warriors?
Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Clippers forward Montrezl Harrell (5).
- Brandon Anderson uses our FantasyLabs tools to identify the best NBA props on Thursday's slate.
- This piece will focus on prop bets providing value for Pistons PG Reggie Jackson, Hawks rookie SF De'Andre Hunter and Clippers PF Montrezl Harrell.
The NBA season is off and running, and prop betting season is officially open for business.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where the Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each play is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Thursday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props focus on two of the slate’s three games:
- Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors: 10:30 p.m. ET
There may be only three games tonight, but our prop tool has 14 props with a Bet Quality of at least nine. There’s money to be won out there before these early lines adjust. These are my four favorites.
Pistons PG Reggie Jackson
THE PICK: Over 12.5 points (-110) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
It was a rough start to the season for Jackson. Despite a surprising Pistons win in Indiana, Jackson played only 20 minutes and scored just five points with both Derrick Rose and Luke Kennard coming off the bench for big scoring games. Jackson is still playing through a back injury, too.
But nothing heals an ailing guard quite like playing Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks’ porous defense gave up innumerable big games to opposing guards last season, so Jackson should bounce back with a big scoring game.
Jackson has averaged more than 13 points per game in all six seasons as a starter and scored over 12.5 points in 68.8% of his career starts.
Our projections have Jackson at 15.1 points. Unless that back acts up on him, he could be in for a big game against the Hawks. The injury question marks mean you shouldn’t bet this one too far past its current -110 value.
Hawks SF De’Andre Hunter
THE PICK: Over 3.5 rebounds (-117)
The Hawks paid a steep price in this year’s draft for Hunter, packaging the No. 8 and No. 17 picks to move up to fourth spot for the defensive minded Hunter. He looked good in preseason, already flashing more aggression on offense than expected, though he had only 10 rebounds in 91 preseason minutes.
Perhaps that’s why this number is so low, but it shouldn’t be. Hunter is a big, physical player who averaged 5.0 rebounds per game at Virginia last season, and rebounds are one of the stickiest stats from college to pro. Hunter may play some minutes at the four too, further helping his rebounding chances.
Our projections have Hunter at 4.9 rebounds, right around his college number. The public has already bet this one up to -117, so grab those odds before they clear the -130 range.
Clippers C Montrezl Harrell
THE PICK: Over 6.5 rebounds (+100) | Over 16.5 points (-110) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
This is a sheer volume play. The Clippers paid big this summer to keep Ivica Zubac around, but Zubac played fewer than 10 minutes against the Lakers in the opener. Instead, Harrell led both teams with 38 minutes played, guarding LeBron James for much of the game and racking up 17 points, seven rebounds, and four assists.
The Warriors could go smaller more often this year, especially with Willie Cauley-Stein injured and Kevon Looney limited. Zubac won’t have anyone to guard, and that should mean big minutes for Harrell, who may be asked to match up with Draymond Green much of the game.
These lines are still set at Harrell’s numbers last year, when he averaged 16.6 points and 6.5 rebounds in 26.3 minutes a game. Harrell pretty much always produces when he’s on the floor, so if he gets more minutes, the points and rebounds will go up too.
Our projections have Harrell at 7.9 rebounds and 19.2 points, easily clearing both lines and making them each worth betting up to -125 if needed. Since it’s a minutes play, Harrell is likely to hit both props if he goes over on either. You may as well double down.