Raybon’s Favorite NBA Player Props for Wednesday: Andre Drummond Over/Under 17 Points?
Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Detroit Pistons center Andre Drummond (0) and Minnesota Timberwolves forward Taj Gibson (67)
- Chris Raybon breaks down his favorite NBA player props for Wednesday.
- Props include Pistons C Andre Drummond's points and Dallas Mavericks C Dwight Powell's points and rebounds.
The three NBA player props highlighted below are for the following two games:
- Minnesota Timberwolves at Detroit Pistons: 7 p.m. ET
- Dallas Mavericks at Washington Wizards: 7 p.m. ET
As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 4:30 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Pistons C Andre Drummond
The Pick: Over 17 Points (-115)
This is a good bounce-back spot for Drummond after he failed to hit 17 points in each of his past three games. Two were on the road, where he’s averaging 15.8 points per game compared to 18.8 at home, and the third was against a Toronto defense allowing the sixth-fewest points per game in the league to centers (20.8).
A baseline performance for Drummond at home against the Timberwolves is much more realistic. Coach Ryan Saunders’ defense has allowed 121.1 points per game over its past 11, and Karl-Anthony Towns ranks 38th of 65 centers in Defensive Real Plus-Minus.
Drummond has topped 17 points in 19-of-31 home games, and given the possibility of a push at 17, this prop should have value up to -150 (60% implied probability).
At over 17 (-115), this prop is rated a Bet Quality of 9 in our props tool, and points props rated as such have gone 123-70-5 (62.1%) this season.
Mavericks C Dwight Powell
The Picks: Over 14.5 Points (-115), Over 7.5 Rebounds (-165)
With Mark Cuban’s franchise devolving into all tank, no shark as of late, Powell is being given as much run as he can handle. He made his first four starts of the season over the past four games, averaging 34.6 minutes, 17.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per contest.
Powell’s per-36 numbers are 18.0 points and 8.8 rebounds, so his numbers as a starter might be selling his rebounding expectation short — especially against a Wizards squad that allows the third-most rebounds per game in the league (47.5).
Over the past 30 days, Washington has allowed an average of 13.8 rebounds per game to centers, which would put Powell on pace for 9.9 in 34.5 minutes — his projected playing time via our NBA Player Models.
The Wizards are also allowing 25.7 points (seventh-highest) and a 60.1% field goal percentage (fifth-highest) to the position over that span.
At over 7.5 (-165), Powell’s rebounding prop is rated a 10 by the props tool. Rebound props with a rating of 10 have gone 152-96-11 since the start of the season, good for 59% win rate.
The 27-year-old big has finished with exactly 8 rebounds twice in four starts, though, so I wouldn’t recommend playing over 8 past standard juice. His points prop should have value up to -130. (At -135 it drops to a rating of 7, which isn’t worth the juice.)