Friday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Kevin Durant Assists, 3 More
Photo credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kevin Durant
- Friday's 13-game slate features four NBA player prop bets offering value.
- This piece will focus on Hawks PF John Collins, Wizards SG Bradley Beal, Heat SG Dwyane Wade and Warriors F Kevin Durant.
Friday’s best NBA player props come from four of the slate’s 13 games:
- Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic: 7 p.m. ET
- San Antonio Spurs at Washington Wizards: 7 p.m. ET
- Miami Heat at Minnesota Timberwolves: 8 p.m. ET
- Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors: 10:30 p.m. ET
As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 4:30 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Hawks PF John Collins
The Pick: Over 8.5 rebounds (-120)
Collins hasn’t exactly dominated as a rebounder recently, posting eight or fewer boards in four of his past six games. That said, there’s a lot to like about him against the Magic.
For starters, Collins has played at least 34.5 minutes in three straight games, and he’s averaged 11.5 rebounds per 36 minutes this season. He’s played at least 30 minutes in 31 games, and he’s grabbed at least nine rebounds in 22 (70.9%) of them. That should make the true odds on this prop closer to -141. Orlando is also average in terms of team rebound rate, ranking 17th in the league.
I think this is a great opportunity to buy low on Collins. I’d play this prop up to -135.
Wizards SG Bradley Beal
The Pick: Under 25 points (-114)
Beal has been a rock for the Wizards all season, but that doesn’t change the fact that their season is effectively over.
Beal is coming off just 23.5 minutes in their last contest — a one-point loss to the Bulls — and it seems like they’ve decided to ease his workload for the last few games. He’s currently projected for just 25.5 minutes in our FantasyLabs NBA Models, which will make it tough for him to hit the over on his current scoring prop.
The Wizards are a really interesting team to target in Friday’s prop market. They’re essentially waiving the white flag on their season, but the majority of their players are being priced like their going to see their normal workload.
I like the under on Beal’s scoring prop up to -140. I’m also taking the under on his assist and rebounding props.
Heat SG Dwyane Wade
The Pick: Over 3.5 rebounds (-154)
You have to lay a little more juice than normal on this prop, but it’s still presenting a lot of value. Wade has ripped down at least five rebounds in five of his past six contests, and he’s gone for at least seven rebounds in four of them.
Wade has always been an excellent rebounder for a guard — he’s averaged 4.7 rebounds per game throughout his career — and he’s taken on a bigger role for the shorthanded Heat recently.
This is our last season to make money off Wade, so let’s take advantage while we still can. I like the over up to -175.
Warriors SF Kevin Durant
The Pick: Under 6.5 assists (-114)
Durant has racked up at least seven assists in three of his past four contests, which has caused this line to become a little inflated. He’s averaged just 5.8 assists per game this season, and he’s handed out six or fewer assists in 46-of-75 (61.3%) games.
The -114 odds have an implied probability of 53.3%, so there is definitely some value with the current number. Add in the fact that Durant could see reduced minutes in a blowout — the Warriors are 16-point favorites against the Cavaliers (see live odds here) — and there’s a lot to like about this prop.
I’m willing to back the under on this prop up to -125.