We have three NBA props for Game 7 between the Thunder and Nuggets this afternoon, as we'll be focusing on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances today's contest.
Continue below for my NBA player props for Sunday, May 18.
NBA Player Props for Sunday, May 18
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 0.5 Blocks
- Isaiah Hartenstein Over 12.5 Points + Assists
- Luguentz Dort Over 8.5 Points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 0.5 Blocks
Since Game 7s tend to be highly contested affairs, it's not entirely surprising the total (213) is 5.5 points lower than the closing number in Game 6 despite both teams combining to score 226 points.
As a result, I expect defense to be a priority, leading me to target Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to surpass his blocks prop of 0.5.
The home crowd will expect nothing short of maximum effort from their Thunder players, and Gilgeous-Alexander is likely to oblige in setting the example as the team leader.
He recorded two blocks in his last home game and finished with at least one block in seven of his previous nine games at Paycom Center.
Throughout the season, Gilgeous-Alexander registered at least one block in 57% (50 of 87) of his games, representing implied odds of -133.
Therefore, with bet365 offering odds at -130, we get a slight value on the over.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 0.5 Blocks (-130 at bet365)
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 12.5 Points + Assists
Isaiah Hartenstein was perfect from the floor in Game 6, and you could argue perhaps his Thunder teammates should've gotten him more involved in the contest. Hartenstein took only four shots but sank them all in OKC's 119-107 defeat to Denver.
The Thunder center has averaged almost two fewer field goal attempts on the road (7.0) than at home (8.8); thus, returning to the Paycom Center could be a sign for more production from Hartenstein.
His points + assists prop is available at 12.5, a number he has cleared in four of his last five home games.
If we look at his splits, he's averaging 12.2 points and 3.2 assists at home compared to 8.4 points and 2.8 assists on the road.
This is a good spot to buy low on Hartenstein, who scored eight points and had no assists last time out.
Pick: Isaiah Hartenstein Over 12.5 Points + Assists (-120 at bet365)
Luguentz Dort Over 8.5 Points
Another player who could benefit from playing in front of the home crowd is OKC's Luguentz Dort. The Thunder forward averages 11.3 points at home vs. 8.5 on the road.
Dort has a scoring prop of 8.5, which he has covered in 11 of his last 12 games at home. In his final regular-season appearance against the Nuggets, he scored 26 points on 9-of-16 shooting.
While the bookmakers are wise to put his prop slightly higher than his postseason average (8.3 points), his chances of posting double-digit figures are much improved if he plays at home.
The few occasions Dort didn't score at least 10 points in this series were Games 3 and 4 on the road.
Against the Nuggets, Dort has gone over 8.5 points in five of the last seven head-to-head meetings at home. Those numbers should bode well for Sunday, with a winner-take-all game on the horizon.
Pick: Luguentz Dort Over 8.5 Points (-135 at BetMGM)
