NBA Finals Player Props: Game 5 Picks for Stephen Curry & Marcus Smart

NBA Finals Player Props: Game 5 Picks for Stephen Curry & Marcus Smart article feature image

Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors during Game 2 of the 2022 NBA Finals.

  • Monday night's NBA Finals matchup will swing the series regardless of the outcome, and both starting point guards present value in player props markets.
  • Tyler Schmidt explains how and why he's betting Stephen Curry and Marcus Smart in a pivotal Game 5.
  • Find his analysis and picks for Celtics vs. Warriors below.

With this yo-yo NBA Finals series all tied up at two games apiece, we now have a best-of-three series to decide the NBA champion. Neither team has lost back-to-back games in this series or in playoffs thus far. With only two or three games left, we need to pick two great props to end this season on a high note.

Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I'm playing using the Action Labs Player Prop tool, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.

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NBA Finals Player Props & Picks

Stephen Curry, Over 30.5 Points (-120)

Warriors vs. CelticsWarriors -3.5
Time | TV9 p.m. ET | ABC
Best BookDraftKings

The Warriors have been led by one man — Stephen Curry. He has been phenomenal this series and is averaging 34.3 points per game while shooting 49.8% from the field and 49.1% from behind the arc. Curry has made at least five 3-pointers in each game of the NBA Finals, so I've got to go with an over prop.

Picking the Curry prop was a little difficult as there were several our model loved tonight. Picking a scoring prop was the most inviting and even though I contemplated his over 5.5 3-pointers at plus-money, I'll go with his over on points. That is a ton of points, but Curry seems dialed in and is playing at an elite level.

It is pretty obvious after Curry poured in 43 points in Game 4 that the ankle injury he suffered in Game 3 is a non-issue. For the NBA Finals, Curry is averaging a 34.7% usage rate and 37 minutes per game. A little over half (54.3%) of Curry's attempts in this series have come from behind the arc.

The only game in which Curry missed this prop was Game 2, when he finished with 29 points and the Warriors blew out the Celtics by 19. Curry only played 32 minutes in that game and shot 42.9% from the field, which was his worst shooting night of the series so far. For the Warriors to win, Curry needs another massive performance.

Marcus Smart, Over 3.5 Rebounds (-154)

Best BookFanDuel

Opposite of the Warriors, the Boston Celtics have done a fantastic job of using their depth and all around talent to secure two victories in this series. Their starting lineup has remained the same and has been healthy up to this point. Marcus Smart is the key player we are targeting in Game 5.

Smart has absolutely crushed this prop recently. He has recorded four or more rebounds in 11 of his past 12 games. In the lone game he missed he had two rebounds in 25 minutes at the Celtics got blown out in Game 2. Smart has played 39 and 40 minutes in back-to-back games, so we are expecting more of that.

In that 12-game stretch, Smart is averaging 9.5 rebound chances and 5.4 rebounds per game. Both rank fifth among the Celtics starters, but this is still an easy prop line for Smart to hit. The Celtics still have the best defensive rating in the playoffs, which has made the Warriors shoot 44.3% in this series.

Smart will have plenty of chances to get over this prop line. This is a prop that I would be more than happy taking at over 4.5 rebounds to secure more value as -165 is not that great at all. Whichever number you take, be confident in Smart reaching that total. He is a crucial part of Boston's success in this matchup.

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Doug Ziefel
Jun 12, 2024 UTC