LaMelo Ball and Kon Knueppel became the first pair of teammates since Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to finish the regular season first and second in the league in three-pointers made.
While Ball finished the regular season on a heater, Knueppel struggled a bit as he tried to hold off his former college teammate, Cooper Flagg, in the Rookie of the Year race.
With the Hornets needing a win to keep their season alive, it may be Ball leading the way with Coby White contributing off the bench. Let's get into my NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Heat vs. Hornets tonight.
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Heat vs Hornets
The Angle: Rookie of the Year Candidate Takes Backseat to Veterans
LaMelo Ball 4+ Three-Pointers Made
It has been 10 years since the Hornets made the playoffs. A 4-14 start to the year made it appear like that drought would continue one more season, but Charlotte has been one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference since the new year started.
The Hornets made the Play-In Tournament in 2021 and 2022, losing on the road to the Pacers and Hawks. This time, they will be at home and the Spectrum Centrum will be buzzing.
Ball is one of two current Hornets to play in those games. He did not shoot well in either game, but he did score 26 points on 7-for-25 shooting from the field against the Hawks.
As the engine of the Hornets' offense, Ball will likely be the focus of Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra's gameplan. However, his volume is why I am still targeting him tonight.
Ball closed the regular season scoring 35, 36, and 27 points in three of his last four games. He also scored 30 points in his last game against the Heat. A constant theme in all of those has been a barrage of threes. Ball is attempting over 60% of his field goal attempts from behind the three-point line since the start of December.
Ball has made 5+ three-pointers in each of his last five games and 4+ threes in each of his last three games against Miami.
The Heat are 28th in 3s allowed and 29th in 3-pointers attempts allowed to point guards. Knowing this matchup, Ball will likely launch 12+ three-point attempts and he has made six of them in three of his last five games — with a high floor.
Pick: LaMelo Ball 4+ Three-Pointers Made
Coby White Over 12.5 Points
While the Hornets were one of the inaugural teams to participate in the Play-In Tournament, the Bulls had become ambassadors as they had participated in each of the last years.
In each of those seasons, the Bulls' season ended at the hands of the Heat. That means White is not only familar with the Play-In Tournament, but also likely motivated to send the Heat home this time.
In five career Play-In games, White is averaging 19 points per game. He will not see as many minutes tonight as he did in Chicago, but his role in Charlotte is to come off the bench and provide instant offense.
As a member of the Hornets, White is averaging 15.6 points in 19.3 minutes per game. He is averaging 11 field goal attempts per game and has a 32.1% usage rate, compared to 22.5% while with the Bulls.
White has been in double figures in each of his last 10 games and he is averaging 16.4 points per game in that span. He has scored 13 points in seven of those games, and he has also scored 13 points in each of his last 13 games against the Heat. That includes 13 and 24 points in two games against them since joining the Hornets.
White's offensive contributions may be needed even more if Knueppel continues to fade.
Pick: Coby White Over 12.5 Points
The Contrarian SGP: LaMelo & White Overs, Knueppel Under
Kon Knueppel Under 18.5 Points
As I previously have noted in my last couple of SGP Playbook articles covering the Hornets, they have a lot of scoring options, particularly on the perimeter. However, all of them cannot go off every single night.
As Ball and White have stepped their game up, Knueppel has taken a step back in the offense of late.
Knueppel ended the regular season scoring 14 points or fewer in each of his last four games. Over his last 10 games, he is averaging 14.6 points per game — down from 18.6 — and he has gone under this line in seven of those games.
Out of Ball, White, Brandon Miller and himself, Knueppel has the lowest usage rate of the four at 22.6% over his last 10 games.
Knueppel has played well in four games against the Heat this season, but one game did not have Miller, and another did not have Ball or Miller.
Knueppel can affect the Hornets' offense just by his gravity and spacing when he is on the floor. However, this will be the biggest game of his NBA career to this point, and head coach Charles Lee may lean on his veterans a bit more, as it appears he has done over the last few weeks.
If Knueppel's field goal attempts are somewhat limited or he continues to struggle from the field, it will be difficult for him to score 19 points tonight.
Pick: Kon Knueppel Under 18.5 Points
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+370)
- LaMelo Ball 4+ Three-Pointers Made
- Coby White Over 12.5 Points
- Kon Knueppel Under 18.5 Points
Compounding Angle (+1800)
- LaMelo Ball 6+ Three-Pointers Made
- Coby White 18+ Points
- Kon Knueppel Under 18.5 Points
