In the NBA regular season, underdogs have won about 31% of their games since 2005 (5,132-11,374 record). However, dogs have won 46% (122-144) of exhibition games in that same time, which includes the Summer League. That’s produced some serious profits on the moneyline.
Why have underdogs performed better in showcase games? There is a lack of familiarity among players and coaches, and teams have varying levels of motivation to perform. This combination leads to increased variance, which favors the team getting points.
Betting underdogs has been highly profitable during the NBA Summer League. We began tracking results in 2016, and over the last three summers, dogs are 134-77-5 (64%) ATS.
That is a straightforward approach, but we can improve the results. Using Bet Labs, I’ve found a winning system that has covered nearly 70% ATS since 2016 with six matches for Monday’s slate.