Pelicans-Lakers Betting Guide: Time to Buy Low on the Lakers?

Betting odds: New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers

• Spread: Lakers -5.5
• Over/Under: 233.5
• Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN

LeBron James and the Lakers have lost three of four but are favored tonight at home against the Pelicans. Can they cover the big number? Will Anthony Davis suit up tonight? Our analysts dive in to tonight's matchup.

Injury Notes

• New Orleans Pelicans: Nikola Mirotic (ankle) is doubtful. Anthony Davis (illness) and Ian Clark (ankle) are questionable. Julius Randle (ankle) is expected to play.
• Los Angeles Lakers: LeBron James (illness), Tyson Chandler (illness), Rajon Rondo (hand), Brandon Ingram (ankle) and Ivica Zubac (illness) are available to play. JaVale McGee (illness) is out.

Betting Trends to Know

The Pelicans are averaging 116.7 points per game (second in the league), and the Lakers are scoring 113.3 points (ninth). Since 2005, when two teams scoring 110 or more points play, the over has gone 81-105-5 (43.5%). — John Ewing

To follow up on John's trend above, when the over/under is set at 230 or higher, the over drops to 27-40-2 ATS (40.3%), going under the total by 5.8 PPG.

The Lakers are coming off a four-game road trip during which they dropped their last two games against the Nets and Wizards before returning home.

Through 31 games with LeBron James, the Lakers are 18-13 and right around the 4-seed in the West. Since 2005, teams over .500 that are returning home off at least a four-game road trip and dropped at least their last two games have gone just 16-24 ATS (40%) over the last five years, failing to cover the spread by 4.1 PPG.

When that home team has faced a conference opponent in that spot, they've gone just 8-15 ATS (34.8%) in that span. — Evan Abrams

Moore: What I'm Watching For

The stuff about Anthony Davis in this game is going to be gross. Lakers fans are going to be all over him the entire time about coming there. Davis may secretly enjoy it, but it sure seems like it’s going to be a distraction.

There are a lot of X’s and O’s things that favor the Pels here. Their biggest weak point is defending spot-up shots; they’re 25th in that category, per Synergy Sports. Well, the Lakers are 29th in spot-up efficiency.

The Lakers are excellent at creating cuts, though, as they are 10th in points per game from cuts. Unfortunately, the Pelicans allow the second-fewest points off cuts per game.

The advantage might be in transition, where the Pelicans are awful (21st in the league) and the Lakers are pretty good, though they slowed down a lot after their fast start. If Luke Walton leans into this potentially up-and-down game, the over of 231 will slide on past. This one could get wild in a hurry, although make sure to monitor all the injury news. — Matt Moore

Locky: News Will Likely Provide Betting Value Tonight

This is a really modest spread considering how the Pelicans are coming in. Anthony Davis left the last game briefly with an illness (and put up a monster stat line when he was playing), and his status for Friday’s game is still uncertain. He’d rather be in the game for sure, since if he sits on the bench it’ll be 2.5 hours of “PLEAAAAAAAASE SIGN WITH US, I’LL DO ANYTHING” from Lakers fans.

Still, Elfrid Payton remains out, and Nikola Mirotic is doubtful after missing Wednesday’s game. That’s a lot of firepower for New Orleans to potentially be missing coming into this game.

Against Milwaukee, it was Darius Miller and even Jahlil Okafor picking up the slack, but you have to question whether that’s sustainable. Depending on the news, the Lakers could be undervalued here, especially if Davis and Mirotic aren't able to go. Lakers -4 would be very enticing in that situation.

Another reason this line isn’t particularly out of control is the Lakers just completed a pretty rough 1-3 road trip. But that just makes this a buy-low spot with two days off and a home game against another playoff team. You have to believe a better effort is coming. — Ken Barkley

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.