The Denver Nuggets (1-1) and Minnesota Timberwolves (2-1) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET from the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The game will broadcast live on Peacock.
The Nuggets are 5.5-point favorites over the Wolves on the spread (Nuggets -5.5), with the over/under set at 228.5 total points. The Nuggets are -200 favorites to win outright on the moneyline, while the Timberwolves are +165 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Nuggets vs. Timberwolves predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, October 27.
My Nuggets vs Timberwolves Prediction
- Nuggets vs Timberwolves picks: Nuggets First Quarter Spread -1.5, Over 228.5
My Nuggets vs Timberwolves best bets are on the over and Denver to cover the first quarter spread, with the best price tags currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Nuggets vs Timberwolves Odds
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -115 | 228.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -105 | 228.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
Nuggets vs Timberwolves NBA Preview
The Timberwolves could be without Anthony Edwards when they host the Nuggets on Monday night.
Edwards exited Sunday's game in the first quarter against the Pacers after experiencing tightness in his right hamstring.
While Minnesota would go on to win the game without the three-time All-Star, it's perceivable that the franchise would exercise caution in bringing their star man back into action for the second leg of a back-to-back.
As a result, we've seen a significant line move, with the Nuggets as high as six-point favorites after opening at -1.5.
Although bookmakers always have to account for injuries to star players, there's a tendency to over-inflate their value.
There are still other players on the roster who will view Edwards' potential absence as an opportunity to step up and contribute to the team.
Against the Pacers, we witnessed a similar occurrence with Julius Randle scoring 31 points to lead the Timberwolves to victory. Randle has had to play second fiddle to Edwards since joining the team in the Karl-Anthony Towns trade.
However, the 12-year veteran has experience playing the alpha role from his time with the Knicks, which included four consecutive 30+ point games in April 2021.
Randle also got some help from his teammates as Minnesota finished with four players in the starting lineup reaching double figures in scoring, while Naz Reid pitched in with 16 points off the bench.
Therefore, this line move feels more like an overreaction, especially given the Timberwolves' likely desire to give a good account of themselves in front of their home fans.
Nuggets vs Timberwolves Prediction, Betting Analysis
Where the Timberwolves might look a bit vulnerable is early in the game, with this being a back-to-back. Minnesota is already 1-2 against the first-quarter spread, whereas Denver is off to a 2-0 start.
The Nuggets seem to have strengthened their depth in the offseason after signing free agents Bruce Brown Jr. and Tim Hardaway Jr., while trading for Cameron Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas.
In the previous campaign, Denver only added Dario Saric and Russell Westbrook, leaving their bench relatively short to endure an 82-game season.
There's a lot to like about this Nuggets team thus far, as they seem to have more scoring options to complement Nikola Jokic. Although Jokic is averaging a modest 17.5 points by his standards, his 12.5 assists per game could highlight the improved quality of players around him.
Denver is one of the more efficient teams in the league, ranking fifth in Effective Field Goal Percentage (59.5%). The Nuggets are also second in Offensive Rating (124.5), and they haven't begun to heat up from the perimeter, ranking 19th in 3-point field goals (12.5), 17th in 3-point attempts (35.5%), and 3-point percentage (35.2%).
The over is on a 3-1 run in the last four meetings between these teams, and it's also on a 4-1 run in games without Edwards, with a total of 228.5 or higher.
Given those numbers, I'd recommend targeting the Nuggets in the first quarter at -1.5 and playing the game over the total of 228.5.
Picks: Nuggets 1Q -1.5, Over 228.5
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Betting Trends
