Heat vs Pacers Pick, Prediction Tonight | Thursday, Nov. 30

Here's everything you need to know about Heat vs. Pacers on Thursday, Nov. 30 — our expert betting picks and prediction for today.

Let's get to our Heat vs. Pacers pick and prediction.

These teams are polar opposites in many ways.

Heat win by doing all of the little things right, while the Pacers win with sheer offensive efficiency. The Heat rank 25th in pace, the Pacers rank first. The Heat are 17th in effective field goal percentage, the Pacers are first.

This game will likely come down to whichever team can dictate the pace. The Pacers will look to maximize the number of possessions, while the Heat will likely try and slow the game down.

The Pacers should be able to get up plenty of 3s as the Heat rank 26th in opponent 3-point attempt rate allowed and the Pacers rank eighth in offensive 3-point attempt rate. The Heat traditionally prioritize taking away the rim, but they actually rank just 16th in rim rate allowed this season. The Pacers are fifth in offensive rim rate, so that could potentially be another edge for Indiana. The Pacers have proven that they can consistently generate quality shots and the Heat just don’t have the point of attack defenders to convince me that they'll shut down Indiana's offense.

On the flip side of the ball, the Heat rank 18th in offensive rating, but have been solid with Jimmy Butler on the floor. Miami has an offensive rating of 107.8 with Butler off the court versus a rating of 117.5 with Butler on the floor. Monitor the injury report, but I'd expect Butler to play after sitting out against Milwaukee on Tuesday. If Butler is in the lineup, I like the Heat’s chances to hang with the Pacers as Indiana doesn't have a lot of great wing defenders to matchup with Butler. The Pacers are also a defense I want to be fade as they rank 29th in defensive rating despite playing the seventh-easiest schedule of opposing offenses.

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I toward Miami as the Heat will likely force the Pacers into a half-court game. However, I think this number is fair, so I won’t be playing this game at this spread. If anything, I'd look toward Butler overs because the Pacers don't have any perimeter defenders to match up with Butler.

Pick: Butler Overs