Betting Odds: Phoenix Suns at Toronto Raptors
- Spread: Raptors -8.5
- Over/Under: 223.5
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
>> All odds as of 5:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets
Update at 5:45 p.m. ET: Kyle Lowry has now been ruled back in and will play. The line quickly jumped back to -8.5, with the over/under ticking back up to 223.5.
Shortly after 10 a.m. ET Thursday, the Raptors announced that star players Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Lowry will miss tonight's game vs. the Phoenix Suns due to rest. OG Anunoby (personal) was also ruled out, Jonas Valanciunas remains out after having thumb surgery and C.J. Miles (hip) is questionable.
Prior to the news, the spread sat at Raptors -12, and within seconds a Steam Move pushed it all the way down to Raptors -9.5. It held there for a couple minutes before being pushed to -9. Bettors weren't done with it, however, as it moved to -8 before noon, which is where it currently sits (per Sports Insights).
The over/under also tanked, moving from 225 before the injury news to 222.5. Since then it has oscillated between 222 and 223.5 with action coming in.
Betting Impact
Outside of the depth issues of missing so many players at once, the Raptors will definitely hurt without their two stars in Lowry and Leonard. They've been especially bad without the former this season, evidenced by his +11.2 on/off court differential. The offense in particular has been 8.1 points per 100 possessions worse with him off vs. on.
On the year, Lowry has missed 11 games; the Raptors have gone just 4-7 against the spread (ATS) without him — and that's against the closing number, not the opening one.
As mentioned below, the Raptors' pace has significantly dropped without the guys out tonight, and after ranking second in pace a season ago the Suns sit just 16th in that regard this year. There could be some value left on the Suns ATS and the under, although the value is quickly being removed by bettors hammering both of those bets.
As of 3:30 p.m. ET, 59% of the bets are on the Raptors, but 79% of the money is on the Suns. The over/under is less drastic, with 58% of wagers and 56% of money on the over.
Fantasy Impact
Here's the news blurb from our FantasyLabs NBA page:
The Raptors have played 127 possessions of non-garbage time minutes without the four players unavailable on Thursday, and not much can be gleaned from the stats procured from players on the court in their absence.
Fred VanVleet and Norman Powell will likely shift into the starting lineup, and Serge Ibaka has been the usage leader (32.5%) in his limited minutes without Lowry, Leonard, Valanciunas, and Anunoby.
J.J. Calle dove into this situation further in today's NBA Injury Report:
The Raptors’ pace downshifts to around 99 possessions per game in minutes without Lowry, Leonard and Valanciunas, and their Offensive Rating declines to 103.7 with VanVleet on the court.
When VanVleet rests on Thursday night, expect the offense to nosedive, which belies their current implied total of 115.25, per our NBA Vegas dashboard.
For the fastest injury update information, make sure to follow our NBA twitter feed. We'll quickly update projections in our NBA models as well.
