Suns vs Thunder Odds, Pick, Prediction | NBA Betting Preview (Friday, March 29)

Here's everything you need to know about Suns vs. Thunder on Friday, Mar. 29 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

The Suns will travel to Oklahoma City to try and pick up their first win of the season over this young Thunder squad. Can the Thunder defend their home court potentially without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, or will the Suns capitalize?

Let's dive into our Suns vs. Thunder prediction and pick.

The Suns are coming off a solid win over the Nuggets on Wednesday night that saw them actually win with defense, holding the Nuggets to just 97 points across 90 possessions. Phoenix's defense has been quietly improving over the last few weeks, as it now ranks 13th in adjusted defensive rating on the season, according to dunksandthrees.com.

The Suns will need another solid defensive effort here considering the Thunder are fourth in offensive rating (120.3) on the season. The Suns have actually done a decent job defensively in each game against the Thunder, holding them to a 117 offensive rating in the first matchup and a 114.6 offensive rating earlier this month. What has cost Phoenix in its matchups with Oklahoma City has been its offense; it has posted offensive ratings of 107.8 and 104.2 against the Thunder so far this season.

The Suns' offense has shown that it has potential to be elite, as they rank ninth in offensive rating on the season and have an offensive rating of 124.8 with their big three on the floor together. I’d expect their offense to fare a little better this time around since this will be the first time they have Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal all healthy against the Thunder.

Assuming Jusuf Nurkić is able to play, the Suns should have a big edge on the offensive glass. The Thunder rank 28th in defensive rebounding rate. In their most recent matchup, Nurkić and the Suns rebounded 36% (89th percentile) of their misses, but still managed to lose because they shot an awful 52% at the rim. If Nurkić can be a bit more efficient with his opportunities, I fully expect this offense to have success in this matchup.

Monitor the injury report for the Thunder since Gilgeous-Alexander missed their last game against the Rockets on Wednesday with a quadricep contusion. Gilgeous-Alexander is obviously an MVP candidate and clearly the Thunder’s most impactful player.

Their offense is drastically better with him on the floor, as evidenced by their impressive offensive rating of 123.4 with Gilgeous-Alexander on the court. That offensive rating drops to 112 when he leaves the court, a drastic -11.4 swing. His status is clearly crucial to this matchup and you can expect the Thunder offense to struggle in the half-court if Gilgeous-Alexander has to sit.

I’d lean towards the Suns at the current number of -1.5. I think it is unlikely the Thunder rush Gilgeous-Alexander back if he is truly banged up.

This game also means much more to the Suns for seeding than it does to the Thunder, and I think Phoenix has legitimate advantages on the offensive glass. I’d play this up to -2.5.

Pick: Suns -1.5 (Play to -2.5)

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