Wiseguys Practicing Patience to Profit from NBA Finals Totals

Jun 05, 2018 10:00 AM EDT

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) celebrates with forward Draymond Green (23)

The Highlights

  • The first two games of the 2018 NBA Finals have gone over the closing totals.
  • Professionals have remained patient before betting the over in the hours leading up to both games.
  • Oddsmakers have increased the opening total for each game, including an opener of 218 for Game 3.

The betting market has remained relatively quiet through the first two games of the 2018 NBA Finals, with little significant line movement of note.

However, for those paying attention, sharps have quietly, and very patiently, jumped on the total in each of the first two games. In Game 1, the total opened at 215.5 and bounced around in minor half-point moves until about five hours before tip, and that’s when professional over money started hitting the market.


Here’s how the Game 1 over/under moved shortly before tip-off:

Game 2’s total opened 215.5, and early action actually pushed the number down to 214.5 as of 6 p.m. ET. Then, once again, wiseguy action pounced on the over.

Here’s the late movement for Game 2’s total:

Unlike Game 1, where over money was more consistent and steady in nature in the hours leading up to tipoff, the total for Game 2 took a massive influx of dollars over a very short period of time, highlighted by a Steam Move triggered by Sports Insights’ Bet Signals at 214.5.

Thanks to an assist from JR Smith, Game 1 made it over the closing total early in overtime while Game 2 was never really in doubt, finishing with 225 points scored.

Oddsmakers once again increased the opening total for Game 3 posting 218, two points higher than Game 2 and two and a half more than Game 1.

Early action has pushed the number down to between 217 and 217.5 depending on the sportsbook, but as we’ve already learned, sharps have yet to show their hands and likely won’t until the hours leading up to the start of Game 3.

More Coverage of Game 3

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