Promoguy: How I’m Betting the DraftKings NBA Early Win Promo for Thursday

DraftKings has announced it will bring back its early win promotion, this time targeting the NBA. I'll be tracking my bets below.

Just opt-in to the promo and if the team you bet on the moneyline goes up 10 points or more at any point in the game, your bet cashes. If they don't go up 10 but win the game anyway, you still win your bet. Make sure you use the "token" when placing the bet in your bet slip; you sometimes need to kill then re-open the app to see that token and click it.

The promo is expected to run every day for the rest of the season — or until it gets pulled. You get one bet per day and it's available for new and existing users.

When DraftKings had the promotion available for the NFL earlier this season, I made picks on every game and used a similar strategy as I do for the NBA.

A $100 per game bettor would have been up a profit of $1,050 for a total of $3,000 risked. That’s an ROI of 35%.

This promotion was also live for Game 1 of the 2022 NBA Finals, in which our bet won.

Here's how the promotion works for this year:

• Place one (1) pre-game moneyline bet per day and if the team you choose leads by 10 points or more at any time in the game, your bet wins
• Bet will be settled as a winner when your team goes up 10 points
• If your team never goes up by 10 points, you can still win your bet. In that event, regular moneyline rules go into effect
• You must attach the token to your wager in order to apply the promotion
• Some users have indicated the max bet is closer to $25 or $50; it had been as high as $500 for VIP members and $200 for some others earlier in the week.

Here are the general principles I'm looking at when making my selections.

1. Wager on underdogs.
2. Target games with high totals. Games with more points scored have a positive correlation with teams blowing 10-point leads. Logic backs up the numbers as 10-point leads are easier to obtain, and easier to come back from, when a game is very high scoring vs low scoring.
3. Pick moneylines that are better priced than other sportsbooks.
4. The max bet for some has been $200 but I don't recommend going more than 1 unit, whatever 1 unit means for you, despite the EV of this promo. I explained more about why on Twitter.

Thursday, Feb. 2

Back to the well again with our play from two nights ago — the Charlotte Hornets. They're +195 at DraftKings against the Bulls in Chicago, one of the better prices in the market.

This game features the second-highest total on the board tonight at 237.

Pick: Hornets +195

Wednesday, Feb. 1

I'm going back to the Spurs on Wednesday as a home dog against the Kings after they almost came through in the first quarter Monday for us. DraftKings has San Antonio listed at +255.

It checks a lot of my boxes — it's an underdog in a game with the highest total of the night, and DK has one of the better prices in the market.

Pick: Spurs +255 (L)

Tuesday, Jan. 31

The Hornets fit my criteria above — a big underdog with what the betting market thinks will be the highest-scoring game on the board.

The Hornets are +410 at DraftKings against the Bucks in Milwaukee, with the total at 244.5.

Pick: Hornets +410 (L)

Monday, Jan. 30

For Wizards vs. Spurs, those philosophies apply to the Spurs' moneyline at a price of +180.

The over/under of 240 is the second-highest on the docket tonight. Its price is just about the best on the market, behind a +185 clip at BallyBet.

Overall, this pick has a 49% win probability and has 38% in total expected value.

Pick: Spurs +180 (L)