Rockets vs. Warriors Odds, Spread, Line: Betting Picks & Predictions for Christmas Day

Rockets vs. Warriors Odds, Spread, Line: Betting Picks & Predictions for Christmas Day article feature image
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USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13), Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (23).

  • The NBA's leading scorer, James Harden (38.6 PPG), is on the road for a Christmas day matchup with the Golden State Warriors (5 p.m. ET on ABC).
  • We analyze the game and break down the betting angles of this Western Conference matchup.

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions

  • Spread: Rockets -11
  • Over/Under: 226.5
  • Time: 5 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: ABC

Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.


The absence of Steph Curry makes this Christmas day matchup one of the least enticing games on the slate, but it still features rival teams with plenty of bad blood between them. After opening at -9.5, the public has hammered the Rockets, pushing the line to 11 as of Tuesday afternoon. Is it time to fade the public and bet on the young Warriors? Our experts break down the fourth of five Christmas games.

Betting Trends to Know

Most gamblers prefer wagering on the over and cheering for points. Since Christmas Day games are some of the most bet in the regular season, it is fair to assume that oddsmakers would inflate the total anticipating increased action on the over from the public.

This creates value betting the under.

A $100 bettor following this strategy has returned a profit of $1,449 since 2005. — John Ewing

Wob: Don’t Rule Out the Dubs

The empire has fallen, but the emperor would rather die than bow before a new king. I don’t know what that means or where this is headed, but it felt great coming off the fingertips, kind of like a Draymond Green three-point attempt.

Speaking of Green, this man has too much pride to let his team lose by double-digits at home … on Christmas Day … on national television … with the world watching. He will burn the arena down before he lets Harden go for 50 points on his watch.

Let’s not get crazy here and put our money down on the Warriors to win this straight up, but I trust D’Angelo Russell and Dray enough to keep this competitive out of fear alone, and certainly do not trust the Rockets to hold a lead ever.

They don’t just go up by 20 and then down by 20 they do it in one half. Asking them to win by double digits is an unhealthy roller coaster ride for any human. Rockets win, Warriors defend the Monarchy’s honor on the field of battle one last time.

Pick: Warriors +11

Brandon Anderson: The Top Rockets-Warriors Prop Bet

THE PICK: Over 6.5 Rebounds (-121)

This isn’t exactly the Warriors-Rockets rematch ABC was hoping for when they put this game at the heart of the Christmas Day lineup, and you’re forgiven if you want to take a mid-day basketball break. You know who won’t be taking this game off? Draymond Green.

The Warriors are flying high on a two-game win streak, and Draymond was talking his talk the other night, remembering how it feels to savor a win. The Ws hate the Rockets, and you know Draymond will make sure they show up for this one in an underdog national TV spot.

Green’s numbers are down across the board this season. He’s playing only 29.0 minutes per game, averaging 9.0 points, 6.2 rebounds and 5.7 assists. But those numbers are all skewed down by a few low-minute games returning from injury.

Draymond shows up in big games. If you think the Warriors hang around and give the Rockets a push, you know Green will be at the heart of things, and that means hitting the boards hard.

Our models have him at 7.6 rebounds, and he should hit the over here if he can stay on the court long enough. Play Draymond up to -140.


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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