Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors Odds, Pick & Preview: T’Wolves Can Keep it Close
David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Anthony Edwards.
- The Warriors are home favorites against the Timberwolves on Thursday night.
- Will the Wolves be able to handle the Warriors' elite defense and pull the upset?
- Tyler Schmidt breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Odds
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
The TNT nightcap features the Splash Brothers against the young T-Pups.
Did you know the Minnesota Timberwolves have only had one winning record and playoff appearance in the last 16 seasons? Being a Minnesotan and seeing their record sit at 24-23 right now is BIG news.
The Timberwolves have their work cut out for them to keep their winning record in-tact as they play against the best home team in the league, the Golden State Warriors. The Splash Brothers are back, but they haven’t been splashing lately.
Let’s take a deep dive into both teams for this Western Conference matchup and find a betting angle and player prop.
Can Young T’Wolves Shock the NBA’s Best Home Team?
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been heating up lately, winning eight of their last 11 games. They have catapulted themselves into seventh place in the Western Conference. They are coming off of a 109-107 road victory over the Portland Trail Blazers behind a 40-point performance from Anthony Edwards.
The Timberwolves have built a very solid three-headed monster, especially on the offensive end of the court. They can fill it up in bunches. Edwards, D’Angelo Russell, and Karl-Anthony Towns are all averaging over 19 points per game. Despite a 11-13 road record, they have covered in 13 of those 24 games and the over has hit in 11 of their last 14 road games. These three can flat out score.
Anthony Edwards is having an incredible sophomore season. No slump here! In his last game at the Chase Center, Edwards scored a career-high 48 points. He shot 16-for-27 from the field and 7-for-13 from behind the arc. Some players love certain arenas. Edwards isn’t quite the third splash brother, but he does rank fourth in the league this season with 3.3 made 3-pointers per game.
May I interest you in a player prop? Our Player Prop model shows an edge on Karl-Anthony Towns’ rebound prop of 9.5 (-105) at DraftKings tonight. Towns isn’t known for being that elite of a rebounder, but he has found success in this matchup, and we project him for 11.1 boards tonight, making that prop a 9 out of 10.
He has grabbed 11 or more rebounds in each of his last 11 games against the Warriors. Towns had a season-high 17 rebounds in their last game.
It also seems as though Russell has found his groove recently. Over the last nine games, Russell has averaged 21.8 points per game while shooting 52.8% from the field and 43.4% from downtown. During that stretch, Russell has six games with four or more 3-pointers and five games where he tallied 10 or more assists. Russell is what makes this team click believe it or not. In the 10 games that he has missed this season, the Timberwolves have a 2-8 record.
The Timberwolves are one of the healthiest teams in the league. Jaylen Nowell and Patrick Beverley are both questionable to play tonight. Both have been key pieces to their success this season, but they certainly aren’t the big three.
When Will the Splash Brothers Get Hot for Golden State?
After a recent rough patch, the Golden State Warriors are getting back into form. It helps they have returned home as this will be their sixth game of their seven-game home stand. They have a league-lead record of 22-4 at home this season. The Warriors are coming off of a 130-92 thrashing over the Mavericks.
Despite their big victory last game and their extremely impressive home record, the Warriors have failed to cover at home in five of their last eight games. There are two major reasons why.
The first would be the loss of Draymond Green. He has missed 11-straight games and will be out once again tonight. In 14 games without Green in the lineup this season, the Warriors Defensive Rating drops from 101.9 to 106.9 per game and their Offensive Rating drops from 112.7 to 109.3 per game. Green is a premier defender and a key cog to their beautifully-flowing offense.
The second reason would be Stephen Curry going ice cold. Over the last seven games, Curry has just one game where he scored over 23 points. During that time he is shooting 38.8% from the field and 30.3% from behind the arc. Curry continues to lead the league in 3-pointers made with 4.8 per game, but his struggles are noticeable. He is shooting a career-low 41.7% from the field.
Klay Thompson has been a much-needed addition to this Warriors team with the absence of Green. He is coming off of a season-high 26 minutes in his last game and his minutes should continue to ramp up as we go along. It has taken Thompson a little bit to get his feet under him as he is shooting a career-low 38.8% from the field. It seems like only a matter of time until he explodes.
Another missing piece to the Warriors tonight, especially defensively, is Andre Iguodala. The 37-year old veteran played a season-high 31 minutes in an overtime loss to the Pacers last Thursday and hasn’t seen the floor since. Don’t get me wrong this is still an incredible defense and team as a whole, but they are definitely missing some key pieces and aren’t shooting that well lately.
The Timberwolves are the healthier team going into tonight and are currently playing much better than the Warriors right now. That is the side I am taking, however I am a little cautious to sprinkle the moneyline at +190.
The Warriors still lead the league in Defensive Rating this season and rank 12th in Offensive Rating. They also have an elite closer in Stephen Curry and they have won each of their last 10 home games against the Timberwolves.
Usually once the Timberwolves taste a piece of victory they throw it away, which is likely to happen again tonight. I think they keep it close, but come up short tonight. Sprinkle the moneyline if you wish, but I’ll just take the points.
I would take the Timberwolves down to +5 tonight and like Towns’ rebound prop over 9.5 at DraftKings.
Pick: Timberwolves +5.5 (-110)
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