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Warriors vs. Mavericks NBA Betting Trends: Game 4 ATS, Over/Under Results for Playoff Teams Trailing 0-3

Warriors vs. Mavericks NBA Betting Trends: Game 4 ATS, Over/Under Results for Playoff Teams Trailing 0-3 article feature image
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Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Steph Curry, Luka Doncic.

The Golden State Warriors own a 3-0 lead over the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals entering Tuesday’s Game 4.

We have plenty of betting angles that apply to this particular situation.

Although tonight is a do-or-die scenario for the Mavs, relying on the narrative that the trailing team “wants it more” hasn’t necessarily paid off.

Teams down 0-3 in a playoff series are just 20-30-3 (40%) against the spread and 14-39 straight-up since 2005.

Oddly enough, teams trailing 0-3 in a postseason series are profitable in the first half, covering 52.8% of tries. Bettors uncomfortable playing Dallas on the full game spread — the Mavericks are one-point favorites Tuesday — could potentially veer to the first-half market.

The Warriors have lost against the spread in the first half in each of the last three sweep opportunities against conference opponents: 2022 vs. Denver, 2019 vs. Portland and 2018 vs. San Antonio.

The Mavericks outscore foes by 2.4 points in the first half this season, the seventh-best mark in basketball. Golden State, meanwhile, is +1.1.

Elsewhere, the total deserves some attention, too.

Since 2015, when the road team has a chance to sweep, the over is 16-8, cashing by 7.1 points per game. Tuesday’s consensus number is 215.5 (you can shop around for the best price here).

After Dallas took three of four both straight-up and against the spread versus Golden State during the regular season, the Dubs have rattled off three straight covers.

Tuesday’s Game 4 tips off at 9 p.m. ET.

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