Warriors vs. Celtics Odds, Expert Pick, Prediction: Offense Will Be on Display in Boston (January 19)

Warriors vs. Celtics Odds, Expert Pick, Prediction: Offense Will Be on Display in Boston (January 19) article feature image

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Klay Thompson #11 and Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors, Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics.

  • The Boston Celtics host the Golden State Warriors in their second matchup of the season.
  • The Warriors have been an over machine on the road while the Celtics have put up big numbers at home.
  • Jacob McKenna explains why his bet is on the total in tonight's NBA Finals rematch.

Warriors vs. Celtics Odds

Warriors Odds+6
Celtics Odds-6
Time7:30 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Golden State Warriors will head to Boston on Thursday night to take on the Celtics in the fourth game of a five-game road swing for the Warriors.

The reigning NBA champs have had an up and down season so far, entering this matchup in sixth in the Western Conference with a record of 22-22. However, Golden State has won two of its first three games on this road trip and appears to be hitting its stride.

Meanwhile, Boston found its stride in Game 1 of the season, and as a result enters this matchup with a record of 33-12 and on a seven game win streak.

This is the second time this season that these two team will square off in a rematch of last season's NBA Finals. Here is a look into the odds and predictions for the matchup between the Warriors and Celtics.

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Golden State Warriors

The Warriors may have won two of their past three road games, but for the majority of the season they've been one of the worst road teams in the NBA.

In 22 road appearances this season the Warriors have won just five games. Perhaps the largest reason for that 5-17 record is their play on the defensive end of the floor, something that was arguably this teams biggest strength last season.

According to NBA Advanced Stats, the Warriors rank 28th in Defensive Rating on the road at 119.1. That is a significant increase from their road Defensive Rating of 109.7 last season, which ranked fourth in the league. It's just one of many signs that the Warriors are much more vulnerable on that end of the floor.

Where Golden State struggles the most on defense is on the perimeter, where it is allowing its opponents to shoot 40.9% from beyond the arc on the road. In their past three games, the Warriors have seen that percentage drop slightly to 38.5%, but that still raises some red flags about whether this team can find a consistent perimeter presence on defense.

Golden State compliments that shaky defense with an Offensive Rating of 112.0 on the road, giving them a road Net Rating of -7.1. That Net Rating ranks 27th in the NBA.

Boston Celtics

The Celtics have been the NBA's most consistent team and that has remained true since the calendar flipped to 2023.

Boston began 2023 with two double digit losses, losing 123-111 to Denver and 150-117 to Oklahoma City. Neither of those losses were pretty, but the Celtics have since turned things around and won seven straight games.

During that seven game stretch Boston has been unbelievable on both ends of the floor. The Celtics have the third-best Offensive Rating (122.5) and fourth best Defensive Rating (109.4), giving Boston a Net Rating of +13.1 which is truly a sign of dominance.

That dominance has been evident even with Jaylen Brown sidelined for roughly half of those games. With Brown out of the lineup since Jan. 12, the Celtics have gone 3-0 with a +39 point differential.

Boston is now 5-0 on the season without Brown in the lineup (per StatMuse), averaging 123.6 points per game on 49.3% shooting overall. This is one most well-balanced and deepest teams in the NBA.

Warriors-Celtics Pick

When these teams met earlier this season the combined point total ended at 230 points, but I think that we will likely seeing a higher scoring affair this time around. Due to their lack of a defensive presence this season, the over had been a great pick to take while the Warriors are on the road.

According to Bet Labs, Warriors have an over record of 17-4-1 in road games this season, by far the most profitable team in NBA. Conversely, the over is 15-7 in Celtics home games, the fourth-most profitable mark among home teams in the NBA.

The Warriors generate an average the 103.08 offensive possessions on the road this season, giving themselves plenty of opportunities to score despite being horrible on the defensive end. The over has also been kind to the Celtics this season, hitting in 51.2% of their games overall and 66.7% of their home games.

Golden State's last three games have seen an average total of 250.67, with those games coming against teams with a record below .500. I think Boston has a great chance to even up the season series here with a win, but I prefer backing the over as I think both teams are going to have the chance to score plenty of buckets tonight.

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