The New Mexico Lobos take on the Grand Canyon Antelopes in Phoenix, Arizona. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Grand Canyon is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -120. The total is set at 149 points.
Here’s my New Mexico vs. Grand Canyon prediction and college basketball picks for February 11, 2026.
New Mexico vs Grand Canyon Prediction
My Pick: Grand Canyon ML -120
My New Mexico vs Grand Canyon best bet is on the Antelopes to win outright. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
New Mexico vs. Grand Canyon Odds
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 149 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Grand Canyon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 149 -110o / -110u | -120 |
- New Mexico vs Grand Canyon spread: Grand Canyon -1.5
- New Mexico vs Grand Canyon over/under: 149 points
- New Mexico vs Grand Canyon moneyline: New Mexico +100, Grand Canyon -120
New Mexico vs Grand Canyon College Basketball Betting Preview
New Mexico Basketball
The Lobos have lost two games in a row for the first time since losing to New Mexico State on the road and to Nebraska at a neutral-site MTE back in mid-November.
Surprisingly, both of New Mexico's losses have come at home, a venue where the Lobos hardly ever lose, let alone twice in a row. Before the losing streak, New Mexico was 12-0 at home, leading to an 18-4 overall record and a 9-2 mark in conference play.
Away from home, the Lobos have still been solid. But they're about to walk into one of the toughest road environments in the country.
However, New Mexico dominated Grand Canyon 87-64 when they played earlier this season, so there are definitely valid reasons to believe the Lobos will win again on Wednesday.
New Mexico's defense has been porous recently, allowing 80 or more points in each of the past three games, including a matchup with a 6-17 San Jose State team that plays incredibly slow and barely ranks in the top 200 on KenPom in offensive efficiency.
The Lobos' defense will have to at least show some improvements to have a chance to win on the road in this matchup. Without a quality defensive performance, a third straight loss is imminent.
Grand Canyon Basketball
Grand Canyon comes into this matchup after playing decent basketball since mid-January, with a 5-2 record after its 23-point loss to New Mexico earlier in the season.
The Antelopes boast the second-best defense in the Mountain West, only trailing a notoriously stingy San Diego State program.
Despite that great defense, New Mexico torched Grand Canyon in the first matchup, shooting over 50% from the field and from 3-point range. The Antelopes typically don't allow percentages anywhere near that, as they rank 43rd nationally in guarding 3s (30.8% allowed) and 38th in guarding 2s (47.3% allowed).
If Grand Canyon allows the Lobos to get anywhere near that level of production again on Wednesday, it'll be another loss.
The Pit, New Mexico's home arena, is one of the hardest places to play in the country, but Grand Canyon's Global Credit Union Arena offers an incredible home-court advantage, as well.
If there were ever a matchup where the result could look significantly different from one home arena to the other, these two teams have the crowds to cause it, and the Antelopes will need that home-court advantage to factor in heavily.
New Mexico vs. Grand Canyon Betting Analysis
Despite a complete blowout in the first matchup between these two teams, that game felt more like an anomaly of shooting variance on both sides than a definitive showcase of the levels of these teams relative to each other.
New Mexico shot close to its average on 2s (53.8% compared to 53.1% for the whole season), but shot an absurd 50% from 3. Both of those stats are notable as Grand Canyon is a top-20 defense on KenPom.
The Antelopes didn't help themselves on offense, shooting 25.9% from 3 on an inexplicable 27 attempts.
In the seven games since that loss, the Antelopes have attempted 21.7 3s per game. In that stretch, they're 2-2 when taking 23 or more 3s and 3-0 when taking fewer than 23 3s, with all three of those wins coming against three of the four highest-rated Mountain West teams in KenPom (San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State).
The Lobos are the only team in the top four of KenPom that Grand Canyon hasn't defeated this season, and part of that is the fact that New Mexico baits opponents into shooting a ton of 3s (opponents have the seventh-highest 3-point attempt rate against the Lobos). They did just that against the Antelopes the first time around.
However, Utah State and, especially, San Diego State like to bait opponents into shooting 3s, but Grand Canyon simply didn't take the bait in those more recent games.
I think the Antelopes have learned their lesson about taking too many triples when their opponents want them to and will emphasize the inside game to escape with an important victory.
My Pick: Grand Canyon ML -120
