The Wisconsin Badgers (10-5) take on the No. 2 Michigan Wolverines (14-0) in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. ET on CBS.
Michigan is favored by 20 points on the spread, and the total is set at 165.5 points.
Here’s my Wisconsin vs. Michigan prediction and college basketball picks for January 10, 2026.
Wisconsin vs Michigan Prediction, Pick
My Pick: Michigan Team Total Over
My Wisconsin vs Michigan best bet is on the Wolverines to go over their team total. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Wisconsin vs. Michigan Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20 -120 | 165.5 -110o / -110u | OFF |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20 +100 | 165.5 -110o / -110u | OFF |
- Wisconsin vs Michigan spread: Michigan -20
- Wisconsin vs Michigan over/under: 165.5 points
Wisconsin vs Michigan Game Preview
Wisconsin Badgers Betting Preview
The Badgers’ interior defense is below average at stopping shots inside the arc, and that’s not good against a Michigan team that relies on cuts, ball movement and easy shots at the rim. Michigan is also top-25 in assist rate, showing that its offense is well-designed, not just lucky.
Wisconsin usually has a reputation for strong defense, but this season's team is more vulnerable than usual. The Badgers are outside the top 120 nationally in effective field goal defense, so Michigan will face a defense that struggles to contest good shots.
This is even more important because Michigan takes a lot of 3s, and Wisconsin’s perimeter defense has allowed plenty of open looks.
Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview
When Michigan has the ball, it doesn't play a slow, typical Big Ten style. The Wolverines are top-15 in the country for adjusted offensive efficiency, and their style works against all kinds of teams.
Michigan plays fast in league play, ranking in the top five in adjusted tempo, so it gets shots up before defenses are ready. That pace is a big advantage against a Wisconsin team that likes to slow things down, especially since Michigan tends to play even faster at home.
Michigan’s efficiency is what really stands out here. It's top-three in the nation in 2-point shooting, which is a big problem for Wisconsin.
Free throws are another key factor. Michigan is top-75 in the country when it comes to getting to the line, while Wisconsin’s defense is outside the top 100 at keeping teams off the free-throw line.
That’s great for a team total over, since fouls stop the clock and help keep the points coming, even if Michigan goes cold from outside.
Another reason to like Michigan’s team total is its depth. The Wolverines are top-40 in the nation for bench minutes, so their offense stays strong even when the starters rest.
If the game is close late, Michigan’s top scorers will play more, and we should get some cheap points towards the end of regulation if Wisconsin is fouling.
How To Make Wisconsin vs. Michigan Picks
If your first thought is to take Michigan and lay the points at home, there’s actually a better way to approach this game: bet on Michigan’s team total over.
This matchup really favors the Wolverines’ offense, but the point spread leaves too much room for late-game swings.
Wisconsin’s main defensive strength is slowing down transition opportunities and making teams use long possessions, but that doesn’t hurt Michigan much.
Michigan is used to scoring early, and even in half-court sets, its top-25 in points per possession. The Wolverines are unlikely to have many empty trips in this matchup.
When I see an offensive edge like this, I'm more reluctant to target the team total than to lay a large spread. Wisconsin’s offense is good enough to keep Michigan focused on scoring all game.
I'm not going to back off after seeing Michigan nearly lose as 22-point favorites at Penn State earlier this week. I think the Wolverines' offense continues to roll.
My Pick: Michigan Team Total Over
