It’s been over 20 years since USC's Matt Leinart went “wire-to-wire” in the Heisman race. Preseason Heisman favorites always experience a fall from grace; it’s just the nature of the award.
The Heisman chase is more akin to a movie vying for Best Picture at the Academy Awards than a true MVP honor. You need the stats, the marquee wins and the so-called “Heisman Moments” to secure the hardware.
Some of that is within a player's control, but a lot of it has to do with the marketing campaign built around you.
Arch Manning's Early Struggles
The hype machine surrounding Arch Manning was a double-edged sword from the get-go. On one hand, his family name and top-tier program allowed him to start the season as the Heisman favorite despite the fact that he had started all of two games in his college career prior to Saturday.
The enormous expectations and his limited experience set him up to fail to some degree.
His tepid performance against Ohio State launched a thousand memes over the weekend. He finished 17-for-30 for 170 yards through the air with one touchdown pass and one interception. He also chipped in 38 rushing yards.
That stat line, coupled with the Longhorns’ seven-point loss to Ohio State, skyrocketed his Heisman odds from +600 to +1800 overnight.
Eight players leapfrogged Manning, but which one is best positioned to actually hear their name called at the Heisman presentation in New York City more than three months from now?
Nussmeier, Beck Set Up With Big Wins
Garrett Nussmeier scored the big win of the weekend when he led LSU to a one-possession win over Clemson. He now sits at the Heisman favorite (+800), but his performance was nothing more than game manager-plus (230 passing yards, one touchdown).
The same could be said for Carson Beck (205 passing yards, two touchdowns), who scored a top-10 upset of Notre Dame. His odds dropped from 22-1 to 11-1.
Value on Sellers, Manning?
But if you really want to tie your money up for three months, the play needs to be LaNorris Sellers at 10-1.
The South Carolina quarterback has simply turned the corner as a passer. If Nyck Harbor can overcome his issue with drops, that combination could produce highlight-worthy bombs all season long.
When you pepper in his rushing ability, which is borderline Cam Newton-esque, you have a candidate with all the ingredients to take this thing the distance.
As of today, South Carolina closes its season with six ranked opponents in a seven-game stretch. If Sellers wills his team to victory in four of those games and punches the Gamecocks' ticket to the College Football Playoff in the process, he’ll be hard to beat in this Heisman race.
For what it’s worth, at +1800, Manning is worth a look. He has straight three tin cans to beat up on in the coming weeks in San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston, a stretch that should allow him to rebound statistically.
Then come ranked matchups in back-to-back weeks when UT draws Florida and Oklahoma.
In the Heisman Race, you can have a stinker or two, so long as you roar back statistically and take full advantage of your spotlight opportunities.
Carson Palmer completed just 38% of his passes in a nationally televised loss to Kansas State early in his Heisman season in 2002.
Tim Tebow lost three out of four during the meat of Florida’s SEC schedule before catching fire late in the season back in 2007.
Even Johnny Manziel failed to throw a touchdown pass in his first career start against Florida before taking the world by storm in 2012. This is all to say that slow starts and high-profile losses aren’t a complete disaster for a Heisman candidate.
