Friday Night Lights.
Clear Eyes. Full Hearts. Can't Lose.
Our staff of college football betting experts is locked in for every NCAAF game this week, and we have 4 college football best bets today for Friday, Sept. 11, including picks for Boston College vs. Rutgers (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2) and Kansas vs Missouri (8 p.m. ET, FOX).
College Football Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Friday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 PM | |
  | 7:30 PM | |
| 7:30 PM | |
  | 8 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Richmond vs. NC State Best Bet
By Joshua Nunn
This line opened with NC State favored by 29.5 points with a total set at 48.5. Bets have come in on the Wolfpack, pushing this line out to -30.5.
I'm willing to lay it here with NC State.
The Wolfpack are a much better team than what they showed in the season opener, and having two weeks to think about it, stew over it, and prepare for the home opener is a huge benefit.
This offense will put up points against Richmond, whose defense has worn down in the second half even against weak competition.
The Spiders have shut out both Bucknell and Howard in the first half, only to surrender 35 points in the second half. But don’t expect a shutout here.
The Richmond front is going to struggle with NC State in the trenches, so CJ Bailey and Duke Scott should both gash the Spiders on the ground. I would expect very little havoc against Bailey and a clean pocket for him to connect on downfield throws in this game.
Richmond will likely deploy a run-heavy approach at first, but the Spiders won't be able to run the ball against the NC State front. This should force Ashten Snelsire to throw the ball in “third-and-long” situations, which could be trouble.
Snelsire has looked good early this season but has faced zero pressure, so I would expect mistakes and quick possessions.
I don’t want to throw out this NC State team just yet after one poor performance. I expect a great game plan and for the offense to put on a show in the home opener on Friday night.
Richmond doesn't have a strong offense and will struggle to score points. NC State will not.
Pick: NC State -31 or Better
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Rutgers vs. Boston College Best Bet
By Evan Abrams
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems:
This is a Fade System: CFB Sharp Money Fade tells the story of a regular-season college football matchup where the betting market appears to signal confidence from larger wagers, but that signal has become less reliable in recent years.
When the difference between money share and ticket share grows large, it traditionally implied that influential bettors were backing one side while the public leaned the other way.
In the modern college football market, however, information moves quickly, and public participation has grown, creating situations where perceived sharp indicators can actually represent late crowd momentum rather than true professional conviction.
When the number of bets sits in a moderate range, the market has enough activity to shape perception but not enough depth to fully stabilize the price.
In this environment, fading the side attracting the disproportionate money support becomes a contrarian stance that assumes the market has overreacted to what looks like smart action, allowing the opposite team to quietly outperform expectations once the game unfolds on the field.
Teams that fit this system this season are an amazing 11-3 ATS!
Pick: Boston College -4 or Better
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Rutgers vs. Boston College Best Bet
Looking for more college football picks on Friday Night? It's always wise to see what our Action PRO models show value on.
In this case, our top PRO player prop in this game is on Rutgers wide receiver KJ Duff. While FanDuel is hanging Over 6.5 Receptions at -102, our models project him for nearly 7.9, representing a nearly 17% edge against the prop market.
Rutgers was pummeled by UMass last week. In a trailing game script, Duff pulled down nine receptions on a whopping 16 targets (around 41% of the total target share).
The Scarlet Knights are 3.5-point dogs on Friday Night. If they give up another early lead, Duff could be in for another monster night.
Pick: KJ Duff Over 6.5 Receptions (Play to 7.5 +100)
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Missouri vs. Kansas Best Bet
With the quality of defense ramping up, negative regression looms large over Missouri’s offense, a group that struggled to flip the field against a far inferior opponent.
The Jayhawks' pressure will force Austin Simmons to rely on quick outs, lowering the probability of rattling off an explosive play and stalling the offense before getting into scoring position.
The Jayhawks' pressure will also give the Tigers' pass catchers less time to create a passing lane for Simmons, forcing their quarterback to weave the ball into tight windows. Even if Missouri’s wideouts are able to haul in a contested catch, the Jayhawks' bodies near the point of contact will stop them in their tracks, keeping them in front of the sticks.
Even with left tackle Cayden Green back on the field, it remains to be seen if he is 100%, potentially leaving the left side of the line vulnerable to getting beat should he show any signs of regression. If Green suffers a setback, Jack Lange will get the nod after filling in for him in week one, a backup who struggled to create holes in the trenches per his below-nation-average mark in Run Block Grade.
With no clear path to success, the Tigers will struggle to sustain their drives down the field and be held out of scoring position. Especially with their running backs incapable of pulling defensive attention to the box, allowing the Jayhawks to stretch out their second level to help cover more ground.
If you want more exposure, I'd also consider a separate bet on Missouri's 1H TT Under 14.5.
Pick: Missouri Team Total Under 28.5 (-150 or Better)
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