The Missouri Tigers take on the Kansas Jayhawks in Lawrence, Kansas. Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. EDT on FOX.
Missouri is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -225. The total is set at 50.5 points.
Here’s my Missouri vs. Kansas prediction and college football pick for Friday, September 11, 2026.
Missouri vs Kansas Prediction
- Missouri vs. Kansas Pick: Missouri Team Total Under 28.5 (-130, DraftKings)
My Kansas vs. Missouri best bet is on Missouri's team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page. For more picks, be sure to download the Action Network app.
Missouri vs Kansas Odds
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 50.5 -112o / -108u | -225 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 50.5 -112o / -108u | +184 |
- Missouri vs Kansas point spread: Missouri -5.5 (-110), Kansas +5.5 (-110)
- Missouri vs Kansas over/under: 50.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Missouri vs Kansas moneyline: Missouri -225, Kansas +184
Missouri vs Kansas College Football Preview
Missouri Tigers Betting Preview
Heading into the year, Missouri was expected to take a major step back while dealing with injuries, including one to star running back Ahmad Hardy, who suffered a gunshot wound in the offseason.
Fortunately for the Tigers, left tackle Cayden Green is expected to return for this game. He's a First-Team All-SEC selection who will help ward off pressure.
Should Green return quickly to dominant form, Austin Simmons will be able to operate in a clean pocket for longer spurts, improving the quality of his throws. In Missouri’s season opener against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Simmons was efficient, throwing for 252 yards and four touchdowns while completing 89% of his passes.
Even though a matchup against Arkansas-Pine Bluff is hardly an indicator for future success, Simmons' performance was noteworthy, leading the Tigers to top-40 marks nationally in Success Rate and in Havoc Allowed. With Green anchoring the left side, his protection will help reduce the amount of Havoc during Simmons' dropbacks, leading to a decline in his total Turnover Worthy Plays.
While the Tigers offense took care of business, their defense struggled to get off the bus, exiting week one ranked 137th nationally in Rush Explosiveness allowed. If they play that poorly again, the Tigers' front seven will likely struggle against Kansas, especially considering Yasin Willis and Micah Johnson are both averaging over 4.5 yards per carry.
Kansas Jayhawks Betting Preview
Kansas also took care of business in week one, skating past LIU, 51-6.
The running backs consistently gashed the Sharks' front seven, while Isaiah Marshall also thrived through the air, throwing for 246 yards and two touchdowns.
Marshall’s dual-threat ability helped Kansas stay ahead of the sticks, leading them to a top-20 finish nationally in Success Rate. By consistently cutting the distance to gain in half on first down, the Jayhawks created more consistent drives and put up more points.
On the other side of the field, the Jayhawks were arguably even more impressive on defense, ranking near the top of the board in Success Rate allowed, Explosiveness Allowed, Finishing Drives Allowed, and Havoc. Their front seven stuffed the run at a high rate, allowing their back end to stretch out their coverage without fear of getting burned in the middle.
With Hardy already ruled out, the Jayhawks can shade their linebackers outside and smother Simmons' passing lanes, daring the Tigers to try and run up the gut for minimal success. And with the Tigers lacking the Explosiveness on the ground needed to break through the trenches, they'll be prone to stalling out.
Missouri vs Kansas Pick, Betting Analysis
With the quality of defense ramping up, negative regression looms large over Missouri’s offense, a group that struggled to flip the field against a far inferior opponent.
The Jayhawks' pressure will force Simmons to rely on quick outs, lowering the probability of rattling off an explosive play and stalling the offense before getting into scoring position.
The Jayhawks' pressure will also give the Tigers' pass catchers less time to create a passing lane for Simmons, forcing their quarterback to weave the ball into tight windows. Even if Missouri’s wideouts are able to haul in a contested catch, the Jayhawks' bodies near the point of contact will stop them in their tracks, keeping them in front of the sticks.
Even with Green back on the field, it remains to be seen if he is 100%, potentially leaving the left side of the line vulnerable to getting beat should he show any signs of regression. If Green suffers a setback, Jack Lange will get the nod after filling in for him in week one, a backup who struggled to create holes in the trenches per his below-nation-average mark in Run Block Grade.
With no clear path to success, the Tigers will struggle to sustain their drives down the field and be held out of scoring position. Especially with their running backs incapable of pulling defensive attention to the box, allowing the Jayhawks to stretch out their second level to help cover more ground.
If you want more exposure, I'd also consider a separate bet on Missouri's 1H TT Under 14.5.
Pick: Missouri Team Total Under 28.5 (-130, DraftKings)
