The Villanova Wildcats take on the Louisville Cardinals in Louisville, Ky. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
Louisville is favored by -37.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -10000. The total is set at 56.5 points.
Here’s my Villanova vs. Louisville prediction and college football pick for Friday, September 11.
Villanova vs Louisville Prediction
- Villanova vs. Louisville Pick: Louisville First Half -20.5
My Louisville vs. Villanova best bet is on the Cardinals to cover the first-half spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page. For more picks, be sure to download the Action Network app.
Villanova vs Louisville Odds
| Villanova Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+37.5 -114 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +2400 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-37.5 -106 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -10000 |
- Villanova vs Louisville point spread: Villanova +37.5 (-114), Louisville -37.5 (-106)
- Villanova vs Louisville over/under: 56.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Villanova vs Louisville moneyline: Villanova +2400, Louisville -10000
Villanova vs Louisville College Football Preview
Villanova Wildcats
Villanova received a boost just before kickoff in week 0 when quarterback Pat McQuaide received a waiver for an additional season, shoring up the position and giving the Wildcats their proven leader at the helm.
Nova has gone out against their first two opponents, and the offense has looked disjointed and disorganized, with McQuaide really off his game.
Last week, Villanova was outplayed by Bucknell, which is regarded as the worst team in the conference, and the Wildcats were in serious jeopardy of losing the game outright.
The offense stalled due to mistakes, the same mistakes that cost Villanova its game against William & Mary in the opener. This is likely not the week to get the offense figured out, with the Louisville front considered one of the best in the ACC.
The defense has been tested through the air by both W&M and Bucknell, and the explosive plays surrendered through the air have been concerning.
The run defense has been strong, and linebacker Omari Bursey has been all over the field, registering 29 total tackles and 4.5 tackles-for-loss through two weeks.
Nova has not put a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and if they are unable to get pressure here, the defense could get torched.
Louisville Cardinals
Louisville is playing this game on just five days' rest after a season-opening loss against Ole Miss. The Cardinals had chances to win the game but could not consistently register stops in the second half and now have to regroup quickly on short rest.
Lincoln Kienholz did a great job handling Ole Miss pressure in his first game at quarterback for Louisville, throwing for 307 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He was also the team’s leading rusher with 69 yards on the ground with a rushing touchdown.
The run game was effective overall, and several explosive plays were registered in the pass game as well. This is an area Louisville can exploit a weak Villanova Secondary.
Louisville had a good game plan going into their game against Ole Miss, and the first half went about as well as you could have hoped, holding the Rebels to 10 points and 148 total yards with the only touchdown surrendered coming off a turnover.
24 points were surrendered over the final 16 minutes as the explosive Ole Miss offense finally broke through.
The Cardinals can draw a lot of positives from the performance and should regroup nicely here.
Villanova vs Louisville Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened with Louisville a 35.5-point favorite with a total of 56.5. Money has come in on the Cardinals, pushing the line out to +37.5. I am going to lay the -20.5 with Louisville for the first half.
Louisville was able to register plenty of explosive plays against a formidable SEC opponent, and the Cardinals scored a bunch on that Ole Miss defense. Kienholz settled in very nicely, and the chemistry was there with his receivers.
I look for Tre Richardson, TreyShun Hurry and Lawayne McCoy to have a big day receiving against this Villanova secondary.
I am concerned about the pass coverage for Nova. This team was torched by a really weak Bucknell offense that was breaking in a new quarterback and could hardly complete a pass the week prior.
But it wasn’t just last week; the Nova cornerbacks were torched against William & Mary in the opener with several explosive pass plays surrendered. I do not expect effectiveness out of the pass rush, so there should be a clean pocket for Kienholz, who showed last week he can deliver the ball downfield.
Villanova’s rushing attack, something that was so impactful last season, has been mediocre at best through two weeks, and I doubt very seriously this bunch is going to be able to run the football here.
McQuaide is going to be relied on to make plays with his arm, and he has been off thus far this season. He has looked like a guy battling legal issues over his eligibility, rather than practicing with his receivers all offseason.
I trust the Louisville defense to make plays and get off the field on third down, and to register explosiveness in the pass game here. With a short turnaround to this game from last week, I could see a slower pace with the game in hand, so I prefer to lay the first half number here.
Pick: Louisville First Half -20.5
