From elite tennis to trade friction between the United States and Canada, this market breakdown highlights our top five Kalshi trades to target right now. For more real-time data and market analysis, download the Action Network app today.
Now, let's dive in.
US Open Men’s Singles Winner
This US Open has turned into one of the most unpredictable in recent memory following the early eliminations of Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic. Their exits have injected an unusual level of volatility into the final Grand Slam of the year.
While the general narrative suggests the tournament is being handed to Alexander Zverev on a silver platter, giving him a clear path to cap off the best season of his career—Ben Shelton stands out as a formidable contender to claim the title following his stunning victory over Alcaraz.
Shelton brings more than just home-court backing; his lethal serve, tactical intelligence, and explosive power make him a threat to anyone left in the draw. With his semifinal clash against Frances Tiafoe set for today, securing a spot in the final would make backing him an obvious play.
For those who buy into underdog narratives, targeting Yes shares on the American young gun in the US Open Men’s Singles Winner market is the way to go.
Richmond vs. North Carolina St.
With nearly $1.5 million in trading volume, this college football matchup stands out as one of the major highlights of the weekend board, making it a must-watch market if you are planning to execute a few trades.
Taking a look at the trading board, the picture is crystal clear: North Carolina is the overwhelming favorite, holding 97% implied probability to secure the victory. The Tar Heels outmatch Richmond across all units and possess a vastly superior talent pool. An upset by Richmond would truly be one for the ages.
In this setup, the real value lies in trading the totals and spread contracts. Backing North Carolina with a -33.5 spread and taking the Over 50.5 on totals represent solid plays given the current status of both programs.
Practical Magic 2: Rotten Tomatoes Score
Legacyquels are a tricky subject. In some cases, they bring in hundreds of millions at the box office and earn overwhelming praise from fans and critics alike. In others, they sink under the weight of audience indifference and harsh reviews. This week, Practical Magic 2 is firmly in the spotlight, with the central question being what Rotten Tomatoes score it will hold by September 14.
Currently, the Above 32% option is the clear favorite, sitting at 90% implied probability. Over on Rotten Tomatoes, the film is holding steady at a 35% approval rating, with incoming reviews leaning negative but remaining within that same general score band.
What makes this market interesting is that Yes shares for Above 35% are trading at 40 cents. That is a compelling entry price when you consider the film is right on the threshold, where a handful of slightly more enthusiastic reviews could easily push it over the edge.
Taking a shot on the discounted Above 35% contract looks like a risk worth taking, banking on a potential weekend bump for Practical Magic 2.
Champions League Golden Boot
The Champions League is finally underway with mostly expected results and a few early surprises. As always, one of the most intriguing markets on the board is the Golden Boot, or who will finish as the tournament's top goalscorer.
Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappé currently co-lead the market with identical implied odds. However, the market appears to be underestimating—if such a thing is even possible—Mbappé’s lethal goalscoring capability and the massive impact he is set to make in this competition.
With the Champions League campaign just getting started, grabbing Mbappé Yes shares at just 18 cents looks like an absolute bargain that could appreciate significantly as the tournament unfolds.
When Will Trump Raise Tariffs on Canada?
The Kalshi market tracking whether the U.S. will increase tariffs on Canadian goods is rapidly gaining volume as trade rhetoric heats up. Right now, the favorite option among Kalshi traders is Before January 1, 2027, but the alternative expiration windows are not far behind, sitting just a few percentage points back in terms of implied odds.
Trading political tariffs requires balancing public rhetoric against regulatory timelines. While campaign promises and official speeches can trigger sharp price swings in Yes shares, actual executive actions or USTR (Office of the United States Trade Representative) filings follow strict administrative procedures.
Keeping in mind the current political climate between both nations, the regulatory hurdles of implementing new tariffs, and overall market sentiment, targeting Before November 1 Yes shares at 67 cents stands out as a strong setup with significant room to grow over the coming weeks.
