Every situational angle counts in bowl season, and backtested systems give us two smart ways to attack Wednesday's games.
I'm making spread and moneyline predictions for Iowa vs. Vanderbilt (12 p.m. ET) and Michigan vs. Texas (3 p.m. ET) using PRO data.
Iowa vs. Vanderbilt features three strong trends backing the same pick, including a sneaky weather angle.
Michigan vs. Texas, meanwhile, popped with a contrarian angle worth a bet based on line movement.
Check out how a collection of PRO signals (systems, experts, projections and more) all converge on two college football picks for New Year's Eve.
Bowl Game Picks Wednesday: Iowa vs Vanderbilt, Michigan vs Texas
ReliaQuest Bowl Game Picks for Iowa vs. Vanderbilt
First up, Iowa vs. Vanderbilt presents a solid contrarian position, backing Iowa against the spread at +5.5.
Three distinct PRO Systems suggest the underdog carries value to cover on Wednesday, and one of the most interesting angles involves weather. Commodores vs. Hawkeyes will be played in Tampa, Fla., with expected winds around 9 mph.
The “Wind Dropping Totals, Bet the Dog” model highlights how sustained winds, combined with notable drops in totals from open to close, often predict a more conservative offensive approach. Wind limits passing efficiency and explosive plays, favoring the underdog’s ability to keep games close, especially when spreads sit just above a field goal and below 10 points.
Additionally, the “Fade High Scoring Teams in Bowls” trend warns against backing teams that averaged 35+ points per game during the regular season, as they have historically underperformed against the spread in bowl games. This adds further support to fading Vanderbilt, which averaged nearly 40 points per game.
Lastly, the “Bowl Game Bet Against in Close Games” PRO System also sides with Iowa. It carries a strong 67% win rate and supports backing the less popular side when analyzing PRO public betting data. The Hawkeyes are drawing just 26% of tickets and 41% of the money, yet they’re generating all the sharp signals in PRO.
