Welcome to the seventh annual edition of my baby: the preseason MAC Manifesto.
As always, my primary goal is to get you better prepared ahead of Week 1 for some of the nation’s lesser-covered teams and share my favorite preseason futures.
Plus, before we know it, we’ll be sweating some weekday action on a snow-covered field in Ypsilanti.
When it comes to the MAC, you can expect the unexpected, which is why we've seen six different champions over the past six seasons, with a handful coming out of nowhere to get to Detroit.
- 2020: Ball State
- 2021: Northern Illinois
- 2022: Toledo
- 2023: Miami (OH)
- 2024: Ohio
- 2025: Western Michigan
The list above doesn’t even include 2019 Central Michigan, which reached the MAC Championship following a one-win campaign.
Northern Illinois actually one-upped the Chippewas in 2021 by becoming the first conference champion in college football history after going winless the previous season.
Last year, Western Michigan surprised many and took home the title after a rather pedestrian 6-7 season in 2025. The Broncos will look to become the first team to repeat since Northern Illinois way back in 2012.
Nine different teams have played in the previous seven conference championship games, and every team has made an appearance since 2015 except for Eastern Michigan, which is still seeking its first-ever trip to the MAC Championship.
That doesn’t include newcomers UMass and Sacramento State, which is transitioning to its first season in FBS. The Hornets will replace Northern Illinois, which left for the Mountain West. Nothing makes sense anymore.
As a whole, the league continues to fall behind with key player and staff departures each offseason in the new NIL landscape. As a result, the average returning production rank for the 13 MAC teams is 105th (median even lower at 115th), with only Eastern Michigan (24th) sitting in the top 70.
While there are only three new head coaches at Toledo, Sacramento State and Ohio, half of the coordinators are new, and 10 of the 13 members will have new starting quarterbacks under center.
So, don’t be shocked if we have another surprise winner when it’s all said and done.
With that said, let's take a look at my 2026 MAC picks and college football futures in the newest edition of my MAC Manifesto.
2026 MAC Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Miami (OH) | +300 |
| Western Michigan | +400 |
| Toledo | +450 |
| Ohio | +650 |
| Central Michigan | +850 |
| Eastern Michigan | +1100 |
| Bowling Green | +1700 |
| Buffalo | +2100 |
| Akron | +2700 |
| Sacramento State | +3000 |
| Kent State | +4500 |
| Ball State | +8000 |
| UMass | +13000 |
All odds via DraftKings as of Monday, Aug. 24
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- 2025: 4-8 (1-3 in one-possession games)
- TO Margin: +5
- New: OC, QB
- Projection: 7.74 Wins
- Returning Production: 84th
Head coach Chuck Martin did an incredible job in 2025. He got his team to a third consecutive MAC Championship game despite ranking 128th in returning production with no returning starters on offense.
Additionally, his starting quarterback left the team in mid-November to prepare for the NFL Draft.
Now, headed into the season, Martin has more returning experience to work with a schedule that sets up nicely for the RedHawks to reach the Motor City for a fourth straight season.
Miami (OH) Offense
It usually starts up front for Miami, which had no returning starters along the offensive line in 2025.
That changes in 2026 with four starters back, including a pair who started a combined 21 games as freshmen.
The lone departure is a good one in right tackle Drew Terrill (Houston), but the RedHawks plucked three-year starting tackle Evan Malcore from Northern Illinois to plug and play in Terrill’s place. This should be one of the top lines in the league.
Under center, Thomas Gotkowski was slated to get the first crack at QB1 after starting the final four games last season.
He showed some flashes in his first two starts against weaker defenses in Buffalo and Ball State but struggled mightily against Western Michigan and Fresno State to close the year. In those two games, he went 13-of-39 (33.3%) for 164 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. Yikes.
Well, that plan has since gone out the window with Gotkowski suffering a season-ending injury in late August. That means David McComb — a redshirt freshman transfer from Kansas — will now get the nod.
That certainly creates plenty of uncertainty, especially with a Fort Hays transfer (MIAA) transfer now second on the depth chart.
Despite the loss of leading rusher Jordan Brunson, the running back room should still produce following the additions of Rodney Nelson (Monmouth) and Cade Yacamelli (Wisconsin) to go along with returning backup D’Shawntae Jones.
Expect Miami to lean on the ground game early and often with an inexperienced freshman quarterback, especially since it also needs to replace its top two wide receivers in Kam Perry and Cole Weaver, who transferred out to Colorado and Syracuse, respectively.
Keith Reynolds and Braylon Isom did get valuable experience as underclassmen last season, but one will need to emerge as the alpha unless Ohio State sophomore transfer Damarion Witten is a hit from the jump.
There might be some growing pains early, but Martin’s offenses usually figure it out by the time conference play rolls around.
The running game should provide a high floor, but reaching the ceiling will come down to McComb and a go-to wide receiver emerging.
Miami (OH) Defense
The defense does lose some serious talent and experience with five multi-year starters now gone:
- S Eli Blakey
- DE Adam Trick (Texas Tech)
- NB Silas Walters (NFL FA signing)
- LB Corban Hondru
- DT Nasir Washington
Throw in the losses of linebacker Jackson Kuwatch (seventh-round draft pick) and safety Koy Beasley (Kansas State), the RedHawks will need to replace 430 tackles, 20 sacks and 10 of their 14 interceptions.
While those were some of their best defenders, they still return over half of their two-deep from a year ago, so the cupboard is certainly not bare.
The outside cornerbacks have plenty of experience, and I fancy the addition of CJ Young from Kennesaw State to take over at nickel.
I’m a bit more concerned about the safeties, who are the directors of Miami’s defensive scheme.
However, the Redhawks did add some P4 transfers, including Dillon Tatum, who previously started for Michigan State, in addition to Ben Minich from Notre Dame. They ultimately should still boast one of the better secondaries in the MAC.
While they lose their top two linebackers, there’s still plenty of pieces to work with here, led by junior Malcolm McCain and Blayne Myrick, who comes in from South Alabama, where he started for two seasons. There are also a few key depth pieces from 2025. This is still a solid room.
My biggest concern on the defense is the loss of Trick, who had a spectacular 2025 season. In addition to his team-leading eight sacks, just take a look at some of these numbers compared to the second-most on the team:
- Pressures: 64 (next-highest 24)
- QB Hits: 20 (6)
- QB Hurries: 36 (13)
That’s a massive void. Where will the pass rush come from? Can a guy like James Schott make a leap or Cincy transfer Mikah Coleman unlock his full potential?
We shall see, but Trick’s raw production and the attention he garnered from opponents cannot be overstated. If the drop-off is stark, a negative trickle-down effect could ripple throughout the defense, especially in the secondary.
Miami (OH) Special Teams
Death, taxes and Miami special teams. You can almost pencil in the RedHawks for a top-25 unit every year at this point, although they did lose their star kicker and excellent long snapper.
The return game is in great hands, and their senior punter is back, so the field-goal battery is the one to watch following the graduation of Dom Dzioban, who was first-team All-MAC in both 2024 and 2025.
Miami (OH) Betting Analysis
The floor is high for Miami, which will look to make its fourth straight trip to Detroit.
The defense could take a step back following the loss of Trick and attrition in the secondary.
However, the RedHawks should still field a top-tier MAC defense, and the offense can lean on its offensive line as it sorts out the passing attack under new offensive coordinator Gus Ragland (one of my all-time favorite MAC QBs).
Martin’s teams usually get significantly stronger as the season progresses.
That’s good news for a league schedule that includes Bowling Green, UMass, Akron and Central Michigan pre-bye, with two of their most difficult games coming in the final three weeks against Ohio and Western Michigan.
Verdict: Pass
- 2025: 4-8 (1-3 in one-possession games)
- TO Margin: +2
- New: OC, DC, STC, QB
- Projection: 7.02 wins
- Returning Production: 71st
The defending champs come into this season in much better shape than you might think after winning a MAC title.
The Broncos boast the league’s second-highest returning production, which includes quarterback Broc Lowry and star running back Jalen Buckley.
They didn’t lose a single starter to the portal on offense or defense while bringing in a plethora of newbies from the P4 ranks.
Western Michigan Offense
There’s plenty of returning production on offense, starting with the MAC Offensive Player of the Year in Lowry and Buckley, who will be joined by Arkansas transfer AJ Green Jr. to form a very potent backfield.
WMU will also get back three offensive linemen who started at least eight games a season ago in addition to sophomore Jeremy Schleicher, who started the first three games at center before suffering a season-ending injury.
However, I will say that it ended up being a blessing in disguise, as the now-departed Raheem Anderson II (former Michigan transfer) shined.
It did lose a pair of three-year starters in left tackle Adam Vandervest and left guard John Hofer, but neither was close to elite.
WMU is set at guard barring injuries, and I wouldn’t expect much drop-off from this offensive line if one of the transfers hits at left tackle.
In terms of pass-catchers, Western Michigan brings back two of its top three wide receivers in Aveion Chenault and Baylin Brooks, who will look to take that next step as the go-to guys after gaining valuable experience as underclassmen in 2025.
They will certainly be asked to do more following the losses of big-play wideout Tailique Williams and reliable tight end Blake Bosma.
It’s not a great group of pass-catchers, and there's a concerning lack of depth, so Chenault and Brooks will have to produce and stay healthy.
With Lowry’s legs and a loaded backfield, this team will certainly be able to run the ball as expected.
That gives the Broncos a very high floor in the MAC, but things could get a bit dicier in known passing situations if they're playing from behind in their biggest swing games.
Western Michigan Defense
I’m extremely concerned the defense will experience a significant drop-off following the loss of the entire defensive line (and primary backups) in addition to both top linebackers, who ended up being gems they brought in from lower levels in the portal.
Nadame Tucker, in particular, will be almost impossible to replace off the edge, where he was an absolute menace.
The secondary has plenty of returning experience, but I’m not overly wowed by the overall talent level, so we could see them suffer without as much pressure up front.
Plus, the two they did lose in the defensive backfield were a pair of three-year starters in Tate Hallock (who will be sorely missed) and Aaron Wolford.
There’s always a chance they nail the portal again, but I expect this group to take a sizable step back in 2026, especially after losing defensive coordinator Chris O’Leary, who now has that same position for the Los Angeles Chargers. His loss can’t be overstated.
Western Michigan Special Teams
Western Michigan had a surprisingly good year on special teams after years of struggling in that area, and it brings almost everyone back.
Still, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slight step back to normalcy in Kalamazoo.
Western Michigan Betting Analysis
While Western Michigan returns a lot for a MAC team, no less a conference champion, everything screams regression to me.
Let’s not forget this team was sitting at 4-5 last year thanks to a miraculous victory over Toledo, plus wins over three dregs in Rhode Island, UMass and Ball State.
The Broncos then won a couple more coin-flips, followed by victories over two more non-winning teams in Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan to get to the MAC Championship, where they faced a backup quarterback.
You gotta give credit to head coach Lance Taylor for the job he did, but that season easily could’ve slipped away.
The entire narrative would be different headed into this season if not for a 3-1 record in one-possession games (thanks to some critical late-game fourth-down variance) and a +9 turnover margin.
The offense is experienced but could solely rely on its ground game last year with such a dominant defense that will likely take a step back with all of the lost production along the front seven, which in turn will put much more stress on the secondary (and ask more of an offense that isn’t really built to throw the ball when trailing).
That is, of course, unless the Broncos crush it again in the portal with a lot of inexperienced FBS players and/or experienced lower-level guys like they did last season — but that’s hard to duplicate in back-to-back years.
They also lost a very good defensive coordinator to the NFL and will now have the youngest DC in the country calling the shots. We could see a drop-off from an in-game adjustment and schematic planning perspective.
I also doubt they can duplicate the success they had on special teams, and they won’t benefit from seeing Ball State, UMass or Sacramento State on the schedule.
Verdict: Western Michigan Under 7.5 Wins (-160)
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- 2025: 8-5 (8-4 in regular season, 0-4 in one-possession games)
- TO Margin: +6
- New: OC, DC, STC, QB
- Projection: 7.99 Wins
- Returning Production: 130th
It’s a new era in the Rubber City, as Jason Candle won’t be on the sidelines for the first time since 2009 (head coach since 2016) after leaving for UConn in the offseason and taking a number of players and staff with him.
Toledo was always in the mix for a MAC title every season under Candle, but winning only one MAC Championship over the past eight seasons is disappointing when you consider Toledo almost always had the most talented roster in the league.
Candle just lost too many games he shouldn’t have. Look no further than last season, when a pair of crazy blown leads against Western Michigan and Bowling Green prevented them from reaching the MAC title game.
So, I’m actually excited for the hire of Mike Jacobs, who comes in from FCS Mercer. If some of the new FCS flavor can hit, he has a great chance to hit the ground running despite dealing with a roster that returns only one starter from a year ago.
Toledo Offense
Toledo had the best offense in the MAC last year, led by the enigmatic Tucker Gleason at quarterback.
It helped that the Rockets actually found a complementary ground game with Chip Trayanum (now in the NFL) and Kenji Christian (now with UConn), which they completely lacked in 2024.
A pair of now-departed receivers, Trayvon Rudolph (NFL) and Junior Vandeross III, did almost all of the heavy lifting on the outside. All of those pieces are now gone, as is tight end Jacob Petersen.
Outside of a pair of tackles who logged starts last year (a good place to start), Toledo will basically start from scratch on offense under new coordinator Cris Reisert, who comes in from FCS Gardner-Webb.
Reisert did bring along a pair of offensive linemen, which should help rebuild an interior that must replace a pair of All-MAC performers in center Anthony Boswell (Houston) and guard Ethan Spoth, plus two-year starter Carter Fouty.
John Alan Richter, who has patiently waited his turn as a backup for the past three seasons, will likely get the nod as QB1 going into the season.
He has seen action in nine games (with one start) and has shown some promise, primarily as a pocket passer, albeit over a very limited sample size.
The skill positions around Richter will need some FCS transfers to translate at a higher level, including a bunch who came with Jacobs from Mercer, highlighted by wide receiver Adjatay Dabbs and running back CJ Miller.
Joining Dabbs at wide receiver will likely be Rico Bond from Lindenwood and Anthony Simpson, who has had a couple of forgettable P4 stops following a productive 2023 season at UMass.
There’s potential here for a potent MAC offense, especially if Penn State transfer Corey Smith can provide a boost in the backfield, but there's plenty of uncertainty.
Toledo Defense
While the offense is basically starting from scratch, the defense experienced even more turnover, with 14 of the top 15 in snap counts from last season no longer on the roster.
Of those 14, four graduated, four are now on NFL rosters, three transferred to P4 schools and a trio followed Candle to UConn (as did a handful of younger depth pieces).
Shawn Chaffee comes in from Mercer to take over as coordinator and has big shoes to fill after Vince Kehres left for Syracuse.
The secondary has the most question marks following the exodus of five multi-year starters:
S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren: second-round draft pick
CB Andre Fuller: seventh-round draft pick
CB Avery Smith: NFL free agent signing
S Braden Awls: transferred to Iowa State
NB Nasir Bowers: graduated
The Rockets hope that a plethora of FCS transfers can help fill those sizable shoes.
Safety Kaleb Hutchinson, cornerback KJ Thomas and nickelback Donovan Watkins at least have scheme familiarity after coming over from Mercer, but I’m not sure any of the three are particularly special on the field.
I am pretty high on Holy Cross transfer Cam Jones, who could eventually emerge as the No. 1 cornerback.
There are some other FCS newcomers and freshmen in the mix as well, in addition to a potential starter at safety the staff brought in from Michigan State.
Regardless of how this unit shakes out, it’s one of the biggest question marks on the team for a program that has consistently fielded one of the best G6 secondaries in the country in recent seasons.
Fortunately for the Rockets, there aren’t many potent passing attacks on the schedule, especially in league play.
While the linebacker room also lost a pair of starters to the portal, I’m much more confident in this group that can rely on a pair of very promising Mercer transfers in Isaac Prince and Julian Fox, plus a Penn State addition with upside in Kari Jackson.
Langston Long also returns after logging nearly 300 snaps last year, and sophomore Isaac Zay could see a large uptick in playing time.
Lastly, a rebuilt defensive line should at least have one rock in defensive end Andrew Zock, who was one of the best defensive players in all of FCS last season at Mercer.
The guy is a monster, but will need some help from a group that consists primarily of unproven youth, a pair of UAB transfers and a couple of other FCS guys.
Ultimately, this defense should take a sizable step back.
Toledo Special Teams
For a second straight season, Toledo had a rock-solid special teams unit in 2025.
The Rockets will need new return men to emerge, but they do at least bring back a reliable punter.
And while they did lose their starting kicker, the staff brought a very good one in from Mercer, so this unit should still be a strength for MAC standards.
Toledo Betting Analysis
How will Mercer perform in the MAC? That’s a little extreme, but the Rockets could start up to 10 former Mercer players (and 13 overall from the FCS ranks).
Talk about uncertainty for a team that also has a new starting quarterback and a brand-new staff.
With that said, I still have Toledo power-rated within a point of the other top teams in the league, Western Michigan and Miami (OH).
The schedule is also laughably easy. There’s a realistic world where Toledo is favored in 11 games.
Not only do the Rockets have seven home games for the first time since 2018 (and the only MAC team this year), but they also avoid Miami (OH) and host Western Michigan.
They also face the projected three worst teams in the league and get an extremely manageable road league schedule that includes Ohio, Eastern Michigan, Sacramento State and Ball State.
While I do show value on the over, I’d rather take a flier on Toledo to win the MAC at 4-1 odds given the high variance of a new staff and roster that will rely heavily on FCS players making the leap, but Candle’s loss could end up as addition by subtraction.
Verdict: Future Consideration
- 2025: 8-4 (5-3 in one-possession games)
- TO Margin: -3
- New: HC, QB
- Projection: 6.23 Wins
- Returning Production: 129th
There's another coaching change in Ohio after Brian Smith got fired in December for personal misconduct.
As a result, defensive coordinator John Hauser will take over as the Bobs’ third head coach in three years. That’s difficult to navigate, especially in today’s environment.
Ohio did manage the transition from Tim Albin to Smith very smoothly, finishing with nine wins last year. And over the past four seasons, Ohio has won 40 total games, going at least 6-2 in league play each season. That’s an impressive stretch.
Ohio Offense
That success has coincided with very productive quarterback play, as the Bobcats have had a first- or second-team All-MAC signal-caller for four consecutive years:
- 2022: Kurtis Rourke
- 2023: Kurtis Rourke
- 2024: Parker Navarro
- 2025: Parker Navarro
That run is in serious jeopardy in 2026 following Navarro’s graduation.
Nick Poulos won the QB1 job. The former JUCO transfer has seen limited action over the past two seasons at Ohio, completing 26-of-57 passes (45.6%) with one start under his belt.
He has some mobility but nowhere close to the playmaking ability of Navarro.
The other names to keep in the back of your mind are freshman Levi Davis and New Hampshire transfer Matt Vezza, who had a productive 2025 season in the FCS ranks that included a near upset of Ball State.
Navarro is far from the only loss on offense for the Bobs, who must replace each of their top 10 players in terms of snap count. That includes seven multi-year starters, four of whom transferred up to Power 4 programs.
This is an offense that will look to lean on a running back room (that lost Sieh Bangura) to control the clock, especially since the pass-catching room looks way down (with only 11 career FBS starts) after losing their top three to P4 schools.
Whether or not they can do that effectively will depend on how well a brand-new offensive line comes together.
Heading into last season, Ohio had 44 returning FBS starts, and all five guys started every game. This year, its two-deep has zero career FBS starts, with the only real experience coming from the FCS and D-II ranks.
And if there are any injuries this year, the depth is extremely raw.
I’m not very optimistic.
Ohio Defense
Fortunately for the Bobs, the defense experienced significantly less turnover.
Linebacker appears to be the clear strength of the team, with Michael Molnar returning from injury to join Charlie Christopher (who played very well as a true freshman) and Jack Fries. That trio makes up one of the league’s best corps.
DJ Walker also brings stability on the back end after starting every game over the past two seasons at safety. The rest of the secondary needs to be replenished following the graduation of a pair of multi-year starters.
The Bobs will also need to find a replacement for nickel Jalen Thomeson, who transferred to San Diego State after a stellar 2025 season.
Consequently, outside of Walker, there aren’t many known quantities on the back end. The Bobs may need to get reliable production from some FCS transfers.
The secondary may also have more on its plate if Ohio can’t adequately replace the pass-rushing duo of Anas Luqman (UConn) and Jay Crable (FAU), who combined for 10 sacks and 58 pressures.
The Bobcats also lost their most productive interior pass rusher in Pius Odjugo, who finished third on the team in that department.
It’s ultimately a group that may get pushed around while lacking in pass-rushing prowess. The linebackers can only clean so much up if the defensive line doesn’t provide much resistance.
Ohio Special Teams
The special teams weren’t great last year in large part due to a very shaky field-goal kicking situation.
They do bring back their kicker, punter and long snapper in addition to Kent State’s starting kicker from last year, who they hope can help shore up the FG unit.
I’d expect a league-average group.
Ohio Betting Analysis
I’m not too fond of this roster headed into 2026. However, the schedule is certainly very friendly.
After likely taking their lumps at Nebraska, the Bobs have three winnable nonconference matchups against Jacksonville State, South Alabama and Stonehill.
They then open MAC play with a very manageable stretch that includes Kent State, Central Michigan, Sacramento State, Eastern Michigan and Akron.
As a result, their two toughest games on paper come over the last three weeks against Miami (OH) and Toledo. They also avoid reigning champ Western Michigan.
That’s good news for a revamped roster that ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in returning production while also breaking in their third head coach in three years.
Ohio has also been lights-out at home of late with a perfect 12-0 record on the banks of the Hocking River over the past two seasons.
If it can sustain that perfect record, it would only need to win one of the following five gettable road contests to clear its win total:
- at South Alabama
- at Kent State
- at Sacramento State
- at Akron
- at Miami (OH)
That’s certainly not the tallest task.
With that said, I still like the under 6.5 at +120 or better.
With so many questions on offense and a likely major decline in QB play, don’t be surprised if Ohio finally sees some negative close-game regression after going 15-4 in games decided by seven or less over the past four seasons. That played a large role in amassing those 40 total victories.
Then again, Ohio has burned me the past two seasons when I have bet its under, so feel free to ignore everything I just said.
Verdict: Ohio Under 6.5 Wins
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- 2025 Record: 7-6 (5-3 MAC)
- Projection: 6.12 Wins
- Returning Production: 100th
Just how wide open was the MAC last season? If you flip one fourth-down conversion, we would have had a five-way tie for first place.
That conversion I’m referring to came against Central Michigan with two minutes to go by eventual champ Western Michigan.
If the Broncos don’t convert a fourth-and-5 with two minutes to go (or another fourth-and-short earlier in that drive), the Chips could have been playing in Detroit.
That’s how thin the margins are these days in the MAC.
Regardless, it was still a successful first season for head coach Matt Drinkall, who led his team to seven wins. Although, the quality of those victories was certainly suspect, with a collection that came against San Jose State (fortunate), Wagner, Eastern Michigan, Bowling Green, UMass, Buffalo and Kent State.
Those seven opponents went a combined 26-58 overall, and none of them finished with a winning record.
I remain bullish on the hire of Drinkall, who I think is building a potential MAC contender. But these Chips might still be a year away.
Central Michigan Offense
Drinkall, who came to Mount Pleasant from Army, should at least have the opportunity to run the scheme he prefers in 2026 with more of a power spread (very slow tempo) that features a heavy dose of quarterback run and the use of heavier personnel with a fullback.
That’s good news for an offense that has plenty of mobility at QB with the return of Angel Flores. He will likely still rotate with Jadyn Glasser, who's a more refined passer, with Joe Labas now graduated.
The Chips do lose two of their top three running backs, but Brock Townsend comes back and will be joined by talented Liberty transfer Vaughn Blue.
Those two will benefit from running behind an extremely experienced offensive line that returns six players who logged starts last year, in addition to John Iannuzzi, who started to begin 2025 before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 1.
Drinkall also brought in a pair of setters from Georgetown, who I’m sure were targeted by Jack McDaniels, an offensive assistant on the CMU staff last year who took the Georgetown offensive coordinator job in March. He had previously worked with both during a previous stint in the nation’s capital.
Don’t be surprised if you see some position changes up front and some major contributions from the incoming transfers or even a freshman or two despite all of the returning experience.
Drinkall is starting to find guys who fit the mold of what he wants to run. Regardless, this is the deepest line in the MAC and a rare one that can survive injuries without much of a drop-off.
The aerial attack won’t be anything special, but the Chips do return their leading receiver in Langston Lewis.
Unfortunately for CMU, second-leading receiver Tommy McIntosh tore his ACL this offseason, while Tyson Davis transferred to Virginia and tight end DeCorion Temple left for Oregon State.
As a result, there are serious questions about who can help out Lewis.
Central Michigan Defense
While I have faith in Drinkall to cook up a potent rushing attack with his current personnel, I have genuine concern about the state of the defense.
A primary driver of last year’s success was an underrated veteran defense that will now have to restock the cupboard after losing 11 of the 13 players who logged 300-plus snaps.
That includes five multi-year starters (four of whom started for three-plus years) in addition to a pair of cornerbacks who transferred to Power 4 programs.
Michael Heldman (now with the Saints) will be especially missed off the edge after four years with the Chips.
In an effort to replenish the lost production, CMU primarily looked to the lower levels. Unless it really hits on its portal evaluations and gets some immediate production from a few underclassmen, this defense should be a major liability and may ultimately hold CMU back from competing for a MAC title.
There’s simply not much talent or proven FBS experience on that side of the ball.
Central Michigan Special Teams
This does not project to be a particularly strong special teams unit.
The Chips struggled last season and now must replace a reliable kicker with a freshman, which could swing a close game or two in the wrong direction.
Central Michigan Betting Analysis
Drinkall’s offense should look much closer to what he wants to run this year.
There’s real potential on that side of the ball, but the defense and special teams will probably prove to be too limiting for a still one-dimensional offense to overcome with a tougher schedule than 2025.
The Chips do have an easy finish to the season if they can steal a game or two before the bye. I still think they're a year away from being a real Detroit threat, but I can see the case for taking a flier if you wanted to fire up some chips. I’m passing.
Verdict: Pass
- 2025 Record: 4-8 (3-5 MAC)
- Projection: 6.38 Wins
- Returning Production: 24th
Since finishing 9-4 and just missing out on the MAC Championship in 2022 due to a lost tiebreaker with Toledo, the Eagles have had three straight losing seasons.
Is this the year Chris Creighton gets his team back in contention for the program’s first-ever MAC title game appearance? New member UMass is the only other team to never appear in a MAC Championship.
There are definitely things working in his favor.
In a conference full of teams that rank outside the top 100 in returning production, EMU sits in the top 25 in that department (no other MAC team ranks in the top 70) and in the top 10 in overall roster experience. That’s a luxury at the G6 level.
The Eagles also arguably have the most reliable starting quarterback headed into the season in senior Noah Kim, who will become the first returning starting QB for EMU since 2017.
Eastern Michigan Offense
The passing attack should shine with the return of Kim and plenty of experience in the pass-catching department, led by grad student Nick Devereaux.
The rest of the offense is a bit more unsettled.
There were four ongoing position battles along the offensive line outside of center during fall camp. That group had poor injury luck last year but will undoubtedly miss four-year starting guard Mickey Rewolinski.
They brought in some transfers from the P4 ranks (three of whom will likely start) and lower levels, so it remains to be seen how this unit comes together with likely four transfer starters.
The Eagles will also sorely miss 1,000-yard rusher Dontae McMillan, who signed as a free agent with the Baltimore Ravens.
Maybe they can get something from transfer Braydon Bennett, who had previous stops at Virginia Tech and Coastal Carolina, but Amareon Blue and Joey Mattord will be the first men up at the plate.
If they can come up with a reliable rotation up front and avoid injuries, this offense should have no issues moving the ball in league play.
Eastern Michigan Defense
The defense had all kinds of issues in 2025 but did improve a bit down the stretch. The hope is a more experienced group (that will likely start nine seniors) can build on that momentum in 2026.
Led by safety/BANDIT Bryce Llewellyn, the back seven features an abundance of seniors, including a few who missed serious time due to injuries last year.
My biggest questions on this side of the ball lie up front along the defensive line. Peyton Christian, who comes in from Lamar with some decent size, needs to hit along the interior and fill the run-stuffing shoes of the departed Donovan Green.
The Eagles also must find a more consistent pass rush from an underwhelming edge battalion on paper.
While I’m not expecting a lights-out unit, they should have a higher floor this season.
Eastern Michigan Special Teams
You can usually pencil EMU in as one of the better special teams units in the MAC — although it did lose a very good punter.
Eastern Michigan Betting Analysis
If there’s one thing we do know about EMU under Creighton, it will play plenty of close games. In fact, 60 of its past 111 matchups have been decided by a single possession.
Amazingly, the Eagles finished with a winning record in such contests just once over that span (2-7 in OT since 2017), which came in the aforementioned 2022 season when they barely missed out on that elusive MAC title game appearance.
Is this the year those close games break their way?
Well, with all of the returning experience and a stable QB situation, it might just be in the cards for a team that should perform well on paper in such games under Creighton, who I think is a very good coach. His teams rarely beat themselves with penalties or turnovers, and they usually field a rock-solid special teams unit.
While I’m pretty close to market on the win total, I think the Eagles are worth a flier to win a wide-open MAC in 2026. There’s real potential if they can figure things out in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
As long as they can avoid getting too beat up in back-to-back road games at Michigan State and Wisconsin, the rest of the schedule sets up fairly well for a promising season.
They should have a very good chance of racing out to a quick start in league play with Sacramento State, UMass and Akron as their first three MAC opponents. They also avoid one of the MAC favorites in Miami (OH).
Just get me to the road game at Western Michigan in November with a live shot at still getting to Detroit.
Verdict: Eastern Michigan to Win MAC (+1200)
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- 2025: 4-8 (1-3 in one-possession games)
- TO Margin: +2
- New: OC, DC, STC, QB
- Projection: 4.82 Wins
- Returning Production: 124th
Head coach Eddie George has started to build some real momentum at Bowling Green in terms of recruiting (No. 1 class in the MAC), but he has another tall task ahead of him in Year 2 with a second-straight rebuilt roster.
In fact, the Falcons actually dropped in returning production from 121st in 2025 to 124th in 2026 with only two returning starters on paper.
Bowling Green Offense
Unlike last year, George can’t rely on an extremely veteran offensive line full of senior starters. The Falcons will have to replace all five starters (and their 9,500-plus career FBS snaps) with a group that has less than 1,000 career snaps at the FBS level.
That’s not ideal for an offense that wants to lean on the ground game and play-action.
There are just as many questions at wide receiver and tight end, where BG comes into the season with an extreme lack of experience after losing its top six pass-catchers.
The projected starting wide receivers have 11 career catches at the FBS level (although Brennan Ridley did bring in 50 at Hampton in 2024), while the tight ends (expect plenty of heavy personnel) have four combined.
The Falcons at least bring back sophomore running back Austyn Dendy, who showed a lot of promise last November with three straight 100-plus yard outings to close the season.
With all of the depth pieces moving on through the portal, Dendy will need to carry a bulk of the load for a run-first offense, with Charleston Southern transfer Ke’Marion Baldwin hopefully providing some help.
BG hopes that a new quarterback can provide a spark to an offense that desperately needs one.
It did bring in a pair of transfers in Austin Novosad and Jay Kastantin, who will battle it out for the starting gig along with Hunter Najm (who saw action in five games as a freshman) and true freshman Jarin Mock.
While Kastantin has the clear edge in experience following three years of action at D-II Assumption, this is a major step up in class. Novosad, an Oregon transfer, clearly has the highest ceiling.
At minimum, things should go more smoothly under center than they did last season when Bowling Green had to use four quarterbacks due to injury.
However, even with improved quarterback play, the output might not look much better unless a brand-new offensive line can come together and someone emerges as a go-to target on the outside.
I have my doubts for a wide receiver group that has 10 combined career starts at the FBS level.
Bowling Green Defense
While I don’t have much hope for the BG offense, the defense has some real potential despite returning only one regular starter from a year ago. There's real talent at all three levels in the second year of a new system following a drastic scheme shift.
Despite being a bit undersized, the defensive line has a pair of reliable returners in Eddie's son, Eriq George (who may even move inside), and defensive end Myles Bradley.
The Falcons also brought in Kade Kostus, who has starting experience at Central Michigan, and Selah Brown from Louisville to hopefully shore up the interior.
At linebacker, the Falcons lose stud Gideon ESPN Lampron (yes, that’s his real middle name) to Colorado in addition to David Afogho to West Virginia.
However, they should still be more than fine at the second level with the return of Dorian Pringle (who flashed pre-injury in 2025) and the addition of Sanders Ellis, who received freshman All-American honors with this staff at Tennessee State in 2024.
On the back end, BG does lose a trio of starting cornerbacks in MJ Cannon (off to Cincinnati after successfully manning the slot), Keyon Washington (off to Iowa State) and Jalen McClendon (who came with the staff from Tennessee State).
However, former Indiana transfer JoJo Johnson showed a ton of potential late in the season after basically replacing Washington on the outside.
I also like some of the additions, including Drey Braxton from NC Central and likely new nickel Armahn Hale from New Mexico State.
At safety, Darius Lorfils departs following three years as a starter, but he’s certainly replaceable. Kal-El Pascal returns with all-conference potential at the other spot.
The rest of the room is extremely young (health is paramount), but this defensive backfield has plenty of upside if BG can find a reliable second safety from either Preston EstoEsta (who logged nearly 300 snaps as a true freshman) or FAU transfer Mike Wright III.
Bowling Green Special Teams
Bowling Green boasted a very strong special teams unit in 2025, but it must replace a very good punter, kicker (second-team All-MAC; off to Northwestern) and kick returner (first-team All-MAC; off to Northwestern).
It could see a significant drop in the third phase, which may swing a close game or two in the wrong direction.
Bowling Green Betting Analysis
Unless one of the transfer quarterbacks really hits, this offense should struggle after returning basically only a blocking tight end and Dendy from last year’s team, but I have much more optimism for the defense.
As a result, BG unders could be a strong look throughout the season.
On paper, the Falcons should have a decent floor with home league games against Sacramento State, Ball State, Kent State and UMass. However, the nonconference slate is treacherous, with road dates against Nebraska and Iowa State sandwiched in between the home opener against Tarleton State and USF.
If they don’t win a virtual coin flip vs. Tarleton, it could easily be staring at an 0-5 hole after kicking off conference play on the road at Miami (OH) before the schedule eases up (although they also go on the road to Toledo and Western Michigan in November).
I like the hire of George, who will eventually have BG in the mix for a MAC title, but this looks like a rebuilding year where the Falcons will struggle to reach bowl eligibility.
Verdict: Pass
- 2025: 5-7 (3-4 in one-possession games)
- TO Margin: +2
- New: OC, DC, QB
- Projection: 5.29 Wins
- Returning Production: 135th
Coming off a nine-win season, hopes were high in Buffalo with a fairly experienced team. However, the Bulls failed to live up to expectations by not even getting back to a bowl.
And frankly, things could have gone even worse when considering that the Bulls had three one-possession wins over UMass (winless Minutemen choked it away late), Eastern Michigan (by one in OT) and Kent State (by three).
Now, head coach Pete Lembo will have to deal with a brand-new roster in addition to a pair of first-time coordinators.
That’s a tough ask for a program that just doesn’t have much money to spend, so it's forced to rely on mostly lower-level players (even having to reach into the D-II and D-III ranks) to fill in the gaps.
Buffalo Offense
Quite frankly, there’s not much to get excited about.
The Bulls will have a new starting quarterback that will likely come from one of three underwhelming options:
- Elijah Holmes (D-II Wingate transfer)
- Jason Wright (freshman)
- Mason Cumbie (scout team QB past two seasons)
I wouldn't be surprised to see multiple quarterbacks early in the season as they are still splitting first-team reps. Whoever ultimately wins the job won’t have much returning experience to rely on.
Buffalo lost three seniors along the offensive line — two of whom started a combined seven seasons — in addition to a two-year starting left tackle who transferred to UCF.
Only Alex Heininger returns along the interior. There’s now only a combined 10 FBS starts up front for a potential true freshman or D-II transfer to work behind. And even starting running back Al-Jay Henderson graduated.
The wide receiver room had some real chops last year, but both Nik McMillan and Victor Snow got plucked by Power 4 schools in the offseason. Both caught 62 passes last year and combined for nearly 1,800 yards.
This room now looks completely void of talent.
Outside of wide receiver Jasaiah Gathings (36 catches last year), the entire offense has a combined 15 career FBS starts with a first-time offensive coordinator. Yikes.
Buffalo Defense
The story isn’t much rosier on the other side of the ball.
Buffalo saw three senior starters graduate along the defensive line in addition to a productive linebacker and safety.
For a second straight season, they saw a stud linebacker (Red Murdock) get drafted and also lost three starters to P4 teams in the portal:
- LB Dion Crawford (Michigan State)
- S Jalen McNair (Virginia)
- DT Junior Poyser (Wisconsin)
In total, nine of their top 11 tacklers departed, and the portal players brought in to replenish those losses are very underwhelming, to say the least.
The Bulls should still be OK in the secondary with SaVeon Brown and Miles Greer coming back along with cornerbacks Kobi Blackwell and Keontez Bradley, who had their moments as underclassmen in 2025.
However, I’m really worried about the linebacker group after losing Murdock and Shaun Dolac to the NFL in back-to-back seasons.
Plus, a very raw defensive line could get pushed around all season. The front seven will rely heavily on inexperienced underclassmen and a handful of guys from the D-II and D-III ranks. Warning flags galore.
Buffalo Special Teams
Buffalo fielded an excellent special teams unit in 2025, which shouldn’t be too surprising since Lembo specializes in that department.
However, despite that expertise, there’s a much greater chance of slippage in 2026 after the Bulls lost their kicker, punter and a very good return man in Snow.
Buffalo Betting Analysis
There’s not much to like about this Buffalo team outside of the schedule, which contains a pair of FCS teams in Albany and Robert Morris.
The Bulls also host UMass (which celebrated too early last year in what should’ve been an upset win) and finish the season with Akron, Ball State and Central Michigan.
Who knows where each of those three teams will be come November?
So, there are wins on this schedule despite the lack of returning experience, production and incoming talent. With that said, I’m a seller.
Verdict: Buffalo Under 5.5 Wins (+110)
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- 2025 Record: 5-7 (4-4 MAC)
- Projection: 4.6 Wins
- Returning Production: 115th
Joe Moorhead is slowly making progress in the Rubber City.
He arrived in Akron in 2022 after the Zips had won a combined three games over the previous three seasons. He didn’t improve the win total over his first two seasons (both 2-10) but has guided a jump to four and five victories over the past two seasons.
Moorhead deserves even more credit for getting last year’s team to five wins, considering Akron wasn't eligible for the postseason due to low APR scores, which also resulted in reduced practice time.
That burden is now gone with the Zips in good standing once again.
Can Moorhead finally get Akron back to bowl eligibility for the first time since 2017? It may come down to a transfer quarterback finally getting his shot.
Akron Offense
With Ben Finley graduating, Moorhead turned to the portal for his potential replacement by bringing in Reese Poffenbarger, who found himself stuck behind Cam Ward and Drew Mestemaker at Miami and North Texas, respectively, over the past two seasons.
This will actually mark his fifth stop after he started his career at Old Dominion (redshirted) before transferring to FCS Albany, where he had two extremely productive seasons as the full-time starter.
If he can replicate what he did with the Danes at this level, the Zips offense could have some real juice.
Despite the loss of wide receiver Israel Polk to Oklahoma State, Akron boasts an exciting group of skill-position players thanks to the return of running back Jordan Gant (who ran for over 1,000 yards last year) and a pair of freshmen wideouts who shined in 2025 in Marcel Williams and Kyan Mason.
Of course, the offensive line remains a potential major liability, which is par for the course at Akron, which now must replace four players (including a pair of two-year starters) who darted for P4 schools in the offseason.
The Zips do at least return three seniors who each logged at least six starts last year, so there’s a foundation to build from. Still, two positions are complete mystery boxes, and it could all crumble with any injuries.
There’s a realistic story where Moorhead has his best offense by far, but it could just as easily fall apart if Poffenbarger doesn’t live up to his potential or the offensive line has too many weak links once again.
The margins are razor-thin with a program like Akron that lacks resources.
It should at least be an interesting watch, starting from the first drive of the season when you or I might be lucky enough to call plays.
Akron Defense
The defense was hit pretty hard after a fairly decent season in which Akron suffered three losses when the stop unit didn’t allow more than 20 points.
It’s just so difficult for the Zips to hold on to players after they flash. Headed into this season, they'll have to replace their four most productive defenders from a season ago:
- DT Julien Laventure (from Cal U to Akron to Texas Tech)
- OLB Bruno Dall (transferred to UCF)
- CB Malcolm DeWalt IV (signed as an NFL free agent)
- CB Elijah Reed (from Kentucky to Akron to Utah)
There’s still a bit of returning experience at safety/nickel, but the outside cornerback spots look very shaky.
The defensive line brings back two starters in juniors Ronald Hull and Cyrus Durham, but they really need the inexperienced Omari Abor (previously at Ohio State and SMU) to produce right away.
The linebacker room also got hit hard with the graduations of Gage Summers (a diamond in the rough they found at Riverside Community College) and Shammond Cooper. Plus, Melvin Spriggs transferred to Southern Miss.
They hope they found a few other gems once again in Donelius Johnson from Kennesaw State (who missed last year due to injury but played well in 2024) and a few very low-level guys (even one from Canada).
Unless they have a high hit rate on the players they brought in from the lower levels, which is tough to do consistently, this group should take a step back — and potentially a large one after losing eight of their top 11 tacklers.
At Akron, it’s almost impossible not to suffer a setback after losing the top two defensive linemen to the P4, the top three linebackers and a cornerback to the NFL, and another to Utah. The incoming pedigree level is just not very high.
Akron Special Teams
Akron’s special teams were pretty pitiful last year in part due to a lack of depth, which will remain an issue.
However, it at least returns its starting punter and a sophomore kicker who shined after taking over as the starter during the season, so it should improve a bit.
Akron Betting Analysis
I could see the upside case for the Zips if Poffenbarger is that guy in a conference full of quarterback uncertainty, but I’m just not there given some of the potential issues along the offensive line and across the defense.
I'll look to bet Akron in a prime situational spot against UNLV in Week 4.
Verdict: Pass
- 2025 Record: 7-5 (5-3 FCS Big Sky)
- Projection: 4.19 Wins
- Returning Production: 131st
The Hornets will basically field a brand-new roster during their first year in FBS. That doesn’t bode well for an entirely new staff that didn’t even know they would make the FBS jump until very late in the offseason.
As a result, they don’t really have a starting roster or the necessary depth ready for this step up in class.
Additionally, they will travel a ton in a league full of opponents that play thousands of miles away in unfamiliar venues with unfamiliar personnel and staffs.
Keep in mind each of their road league games will require a round trip of about 4,000 miles (and it’s not like they’re playing in major cities), and they have a nonconference trip out to Hawaii to close out the season.
That’s over 20,000 miles in the air. Put another way, the Hornets will travel 4,000 miles to and from their opener at Eastern Michigan, which will travel fewer than 4,000 miles for the entire season.
Now, maybe they can pick off a few opponents at home due to their own advantage in that aspect, but I just can't see this team getting to a bowl in Year 1 (although it would be very MACtion if they made it to Detroit somehow).
It’s at least a very friendly schedule with winnable home games against UMass and Mississippi Valley State in addition to a great spot at home against Kent State.
I also wouldn’t be shocked if they pulled off an upset against either Ohio or Toledo after their bye week. North Dakota State is also making the leap to FBS and travels to Sacramento, so that game isn’t totally out of the question.
Their road schedule isn’t awful either, with Ball State (which could be a disaster) and the opener against an Eastern Michigan team that which loves to play close games.
As you can see, there are plenty of opportunities for wins, but I had to go under 4.5 at based on my raw projection of a team dealing with so much change and adversity without much talent to compensate for the circumstances.
Maybe the panic JUCO buttons they had to press end up hitting, but I don’t have high hopes for a squad that ranks in the bottom 10 in returning production and overall incoming talent level with brand-new schemes and coaches (first-time head coach and offensive coordinator to boot).
I also don’t think Fresno State transfer (and former Hornet prior to that) Carson Conklin, who will replace Cardell Williams, is anything special at quarterback.
And let’s be honest, this wasn’t a dominant FCS squad last year. Sac State finished 7-5 and then lost substantial production to the portal.
For example, the offensive line features four projected starters who were depth pieces at the FCS level in 2025, plus a left tackle who struggled at Incarnate Word.
That’s a potentially enormous drop-off from a unit that lost four multi-year starters to graduation and another to Colorado.
The offense also lost star back former Pitt transfer Rodney Hammond Jr. and its top two receivers to Colorado and San Jose State.
In total, nine of the top 10 in snap counts are gone on offense, with the lone exception being tight end Jordan Williams, who had a whopping 11 receptions in 2025.
The story is similar on defense with the exception of linebacker, which brings back a plethora of experienced options.
Even without one of last year’s starters, Fata Puloka, on the initial depth chart, the Hornets should still have a very competent second level.
However, things get dicey up front and on the back end following a mass portal exodus of last year’s starters, with seven leaving for FBS programs:
- S Koa Akui (Rice)
- CB Jason Oliver (San Diego State)
- CB Ricky Lee (Middle Tennessee)
- S Anta’Veon McKenzie (UAB)
- OLB Dylan Hampsten (Fresno State)
- DT Jayland McGlothen (San Jose State)
- DT DeSean Watts (Washington)
So, did the Hornets replace the 11 transfers they lost to FBS schools with similar talent? Not really. The only 2025 FBS players that are projected to start include:
- QB Carson Conklin (three starts at Fresno State last year)
- NT Jamel Howard Jr. (two snaps, Wisconsin)
- WR Matt Coleman (66 catches across three seasons at SJSU)
- LB Tim Thomas (121 snaps across three seasons at Fresno State)
- S Boogsie Silvera (25 snaps at USF last year)
- S Amari Wallace (redshirt freshman transfer from Miami who has 0 career snaps)
No full-time starters.
And, yes, the schedule (which contains no P4 schools) is friendly by FBS standards, but it’s still significantly more difficult than last year.
There’s a real chance this roster wears down and injuries mount up, which will expose some glaring depth issues (especially in the trenches). That makes the floor particularly low for 2026. The bottom could absolutely fall out at any moment.
Pick: Sacramento State Under 4.5 Wins (-105)
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- 2025 Record: 5-7 (4-4 MAC)
- Projection: 4.08 Wins
- Returning Production: 87th
If I’m going to give Moorhead props for his five-win season at Akron, I have to give extra flowers to Mark Carney for getting Kent State to five wins just one season after the Golden Flashes went winless.
Yes, the wins won’t wow anybody (Merrimack, UMass, Akron, Bowling Green and Northern Illinois), and four of their six one-possession games broke their way, but most didn’t expect them to win more than one or two games.
And that was before Carney was thrust into the interim head coach role (just two years after taking a job as the tight end coach) in April 2025 after the firing of Kenni Burns. Then, to make matters even worse, the defensive coordinator left in July.
Following the 5-7 season, Carney saw his interim tag get shed and enters the 2026 season with a lot more stability across the program with some actual expectations.
Kent State Offense
Speaking of stability, Kent State is the only team in the league that returns its head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and starting quarterback.
That QB, Dru DeShields, showed plenty of promise as a first-time sophomore starter, throwing for 18 touchdowns (with just three interceptions, although he did get away with some risky throws) despite being constantly under pressure.
He consistently demonstrated great elusiveness in the pocket and was nearly flawless when using play-action.
DeShields will need help from some fresh faces after Kent State lost its top two rushers in addition to its top two receivers, who both transferred to P4 schools. Consequently, the skill positions are filled with youth and inexperience.
The offensive line remains a major weakness.
Three underclassmen who gained valuable starting experience in 2025 return (although one suffered an injury in spring). The rest of the group will need guys from lower levels (like Robert Morris and St. Francis) to contribute right away. That’s dicey.
While DeShields can ball, his supporting cast is underwhelming, to say the least. If he misses any time, this offense is absolutely doomed.
Kent State Defense
While the offense is certainly very young, the defense is even younger. I wouldn’t be surprised to see seven or eight sophomore starters.
How much of a leap can some of the true freshmen who got thrown into the fire last year make? Six got extensive playing time. That will particularly go a long way in determining how much the secondary can improve.
The Golden Flashes also added a handful of inexperienced P4 transfers who add even more uncertainty on this side of the ball.
Linebacker Rocco Nicholl transferred back from USF after starting here in 2024, so expect to see his face plenty in the middle of the action. He’ll be relied on to help replace the lost production of Kent’s top two tacklers in Mason Woods and the very underrated CJ Young, who got poached by conference foe Miami (OH).
They also lost a lot of production off the edge, including a three-year starter and Jamond Mathis, who transferred to Texas Tech. Mathis will be tough to replace after finishing with more than two times as many pressures as anybody else on the team.
I’m just not sure where the pass rush will come from. Outside of Thomas Aden in the interior, there are questions galore.
Both starting cornerbacks also depart, with the more impactful loss being Jaire Rawlison, who transferred to West Virginia. Like most of the roster, they will heavily rely on some young bucks.
Kent State Special Teams
The story is the same on special teams with a new freshman kicker and punter. Both positions are question marks.
At least the return game should be one of the league’s best with Harris and Clark back in the fold under former Kent State and Browns special teams legend Josh Cribbs, who takes over this group.
The coverage units and kicking could be a bit of a roller coaster, though.
Kent State Betting Analysis
The Golden Flashes have a very difficult schedule for a MAC team. There’s no UMass, and they have to travel to Sacramento State in a brutal spot following the Wagon Wheel for their ninth straight game prior to their bye week.
Their other road dates come against Ohio State, South Carolina, USF, Western Michigan, Bowling Green and Eastern Michigan.
And while they do avoid Toledo, one of their home games comes against Miami (OH).
I love DeShields, but a win total of 3.5 seems like a fair number for this roster and schedule.
If DeShields returns next year and the portal attrition isn’t too devastating, Kent State will be much more interesting after all of these sophomores get another year under their belts.
Verdict: Pass
- 2025 Record: 4-8 (3-5 MAC)
- Projection: 3.3
- Returning Production: 123rd
If you exclude global pandemics, Ball State hasn’t had a winning season since 2013.
The people in Muncie haven’t had much fun over the past decade-plus, and it’s hard to envision a light at the end of the tunnel unless they really hit on one of their transfer quarterbacks.
For the second straight season, Ball State will have a roster that ranks in the bottom 15 in returning production, and the incoming talent doesn’t inspire much confidence.
Ball State Offense
The Ball State offense was pathetic in 2025, as the Cardinals failed to score double-digit points in half of their games.
Quarterback Kiael Kelly did his best to use his legs to run a gimmicky offense, but he had extreme limitations as a passer and no help around him.
He’s now gone, so head coach Mike Uremovich is hoping to unlock a more potent aerial attack in 2026 with the 5-foot-10, 250-pound Keldric Luster, who comes in from Texas State.
The offensive line returns three starters, but is that even a positive after giving up 49 sacks (despite throwing only a third of the time) and seemingly a billion tackles for loss?
Kelly does deserve plenty of blame for the sack rate, but that doesn’t mean the offensive line play wasn't pitiful. Those three returners include both (poor) tackles and a center who may lose his job to an inexperienced sophomore anyway.
The guards are new without much promise, but it can’t get much worse than last year. Maybe a more experienced bunch can come together in Year 2 of a new offensive scheme, but it’s difficult to get overly excited about this ensemble.
The running back room is also pretty underwhelming, as is the wide receiver corps, which will need depth guys from last season to emerge.
If you asked me to name one thing I’m optimistic about for this offense in 2026, I’m not sure I could come up with an answer while maintaining a straight face.
QB uncertainty could work in its favor, especially since Uremovich will have one who better fits his system, so all eyes will be on Luster.
Ball State Defense
The defense was nothing to write home about in 2025 but did feature a pair of very productive defensive linemen who totaled 71 pressures and 48 hurries. Nobody else on the team had more than 15 pressures or nine hurries.
Unfortunately for the Cardinals, both left for greener pastures. Darin Conley transferred to Washington, and stud edge Nathan Voorhis (a fantastic find from FCS Bryant) signed with the Jets.
So, who returns this season? Only one (safety Derek Fields) of the top 12 in snaps counts.
Cornerback Will Yates also comes back after flirting with the portal, so one of the outside cornerback spots is set, and Colorado State transfer Chris Jackson likely takes the other, but the rest of this stop unit is one humongous question mark.
The Cardinals lost their top five linebackers and will only have one career FBS start in the front seven. There’s even a chance a pair of redshirt freshmen start at linebacker
In total, the defense loses its top seven tacklers, including six seniors to graduation. The secondary boasts almost all of the experience on the team, but they could suffer if the front seven deteriorates.
Ball State brought in a bevy of inexperienced P4 transfers that it needs to connect on, as this defense could potentially start eight or nine transfers.
Ball State Special Teams
The special teams were dreadful in 2025, so at least they can’t get much worse with a new kicker and punter.
Ball State Betting Analysis
The Cardinals should go 1-3 in the non-con with a home win over Stony Brook and road losses to Ohio State, Liberty and Northwestern.
In league play, they at least avoid both Miami (OH) and Western Michigan while getting to host Toledo.
Can they solve their road woes and pick up a win at UMass and/or Kent State? The Cardinals have won only three of their past 23 away games, with two coming against the Golden Flashes.
If they go winless on the road for a second straight season, in order to clear their win total, they will need to take care of business in Muncie against Sac State and Buffalo, plus pick off either Central Michigan or Toledo.
That’s doable but not something I’m betting on, especially since I project only 3.3 wins.
Verdict: Pass
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- 2025 Record: 0-12 (0-8 MAC)
- Projection: 3.67 Wins
- Returning Production: 96th
Let’s save the best for last.
Fresh off a winless season in which the Minutemen finished as one of my lowest power-rated teams ever, things can’t get much worse.
In fairness, they could've picked up two wins if not for a pair of blown double-digit leads against Bryant and Buffalo.
They led, 20-3, against the FCS Bulldogs before falling, 24-23, in a game where they missed a field goal and an extra point.
The Buffalo loss was inexcusable due to some horrendous late-game management after they basically celebrated the win on the field. Can’t make it up.
UMass enters the season on a 16-game losing streak and hasn’t defeated an FBS team since October 2023.
Even more amazing is the fact that it hasn't beaten an FBS team at home since 2021. It’s been nearly 1,800 days (yet, somehow it upset both Bryson Daily and Diego Pavia on the road in 2023)!
UMass Offense
UMass might get its most exciting quarterback play in quite some time following the arrival of Pop Watson from Virginia Tech. The Springfield native saw action in a few games during his time in Blacksburg, including two starts.
The most promising came against Virginia in a 2024 battle for bowl eligibility, where he went 14-of-21 for 254 yards with one touchdown and no picks while adding 65 yards on the ground without sacks and another score.
Speaking of Virginia, UMass did lose its best offensive player (by far) to the Hoos in wide receiver Jacquon Gibson.
The hope is Wisconsin transfer Joseph Griffin Jr. (who caught 25 passes at BC in 2024) can reignite his high-school connection with Watson, where both were all-state.
For what it’s worth, Watson stated they are “going to kill the league. All the defensive backs in that conference are like 5-foot-10”
Well, they won’t kill anything if the offensive line doesn’t improve under new offensive coordinator Max Warner, especially since Watson had a worrying sack rate, albeit over a limited sample size.
There are a couple of holdovers, but UMass needs to get contributions from its portal haul (which includes a former Colorado State starter and three FCS captures) and young freshmen. Can it find a reliable combination up front?
The running back and wide receiver rooms will also need help from the portal, while the tight end group looks like a potential strength. We could see a higher frequency of heavier personnel sets.
This won’t be a good offense.
The talent just isn’t there, but it shouldn’t be the train wreck we saw last season — unless Watson suffers an injury, because then you’re probably looking at a Drake transfer under center who started last season as QB3 before injuries to the two ahead of him.
UMass Defense
The UMass defense got routinely embarrassed throughout last season. Part of that had to do with injuries, which forced them to play scout-team players in the secondary.
Getting some of those guys back healthy (in addition to Joshua Nobles along the defensive line and Timmy Hinspeter at linebacker) will immediately provide a higher floor.
The defensive line will be extremely reliant on incoming transfers. If they can hit on a few who can provide some pressure, that will assist a secondary that still doesn’t have an abundance of talent.
If healthy, linebacker looks like the overwhelming strength of the defense.
UMass Special Teams
You could argue UMass’ best player last year was punter Keegan Andrews, and he’s now gone. That doesn’t help a special teams unit that has been laughably bad in recent seasons.
If they don’t cost the Minutemen their only shot at wins, then it will be considered an improvement.
UMass Betting Analysis
UMass has a completely overhauled roster that lost nearly 70 players from last year’s team that head coach Joe Harasymiak inherited. It’s pretty telling that less than 10% of those departures went to FBS schools.
The talent was upgraded a bit, and you’d have to imagine the injury luck improves following a disastrous season in that department.
If Watson is a significant upgrade at the most important position, the Minutemen will almost certainly field a much more competitive team that could flirt with four victories.
UMass will have a very good chance of ending the losing streak early in the season with a pair of home games against bad FCS teams in Stony Brook and Sacred Heart. There are also other winnable games on the easiest schedule in the country, including:
- at Sacramento State (basically a third FCS team on the schedule)
- vs. Eastern Michigan
- at Buffalo
- vs. Ball State
- vs. Akron
Now, I’m not calling for bowl eligibility, and it wouldn’t totally shock me if they lost to one or both FCS opponents, but I took the plunge and bet over 2.5 wins (-165) for the Minutemen since I project 3.65 wins. Pray for me.
Verdict: UMass Over 2.5 Wins (-166)
Projected MAC Standings
| Team | Proj. Conf. Record |
|---|---|
| Toledo | 6-2 |
| Miami (OH) | 6-2 |
| Western Michigan | 5-3 |
| Central Michigan | 5-3 |
| Eastern Michigan | 5-3 |
| Ohio | 4-4 |
| Bowling Green | 4-4 |
| Akron | 4-4 |
| Kent State | 3-5 |
| Buffalo | 3-5 |
| Sacramento State | 3-5 |
| UMass | 2-6 |
| Ball State | 2-6 |
Stuckey's Favorite MAC Win Totals
- Western Michigan Under 7.5 Wins (-160)
- Ohio Under 6.5 Wins (+100)
- Sacramento State Under 4.5 Wins (-105)
- UMass Over 2.5 Wins (-166)
Stuckey's Favorite MAC Futures
- Eastern Michigan to Win MAC (+1200)
