Sunday's MLB slate is stacked, and the home run market on Polymarket is lit up across all 15 games on the board today.
From Kyle Schwarber chasing MLB's home run crown in Philadelphia to Yordan Alvarez's Triple Crown push in Houston, there's no shortage of thump to trade on.
We've pulled ten of the day's best home run props into one scannable board below, ranked by first pitch, so you can see exactly what's live before the early games get going.
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI vs NYM (1:10 PM ET) | Kyle Schwarber | HR Yes (27.26¢) | $349.22 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| KC vs PIT (1:35 PM ET) | Oneil Cruz | HR Yes (20¢) | $473.65 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| CHC vs CIN (1:40 PM ET) | Alex Bregman | HR Yes (16.88¢) | $560.10 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| BOS vs TB (1:40 PM ET) | Junior Caminero | HR Yes (21.98¢) | $431.59 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| ATL vs HOU (2:10 PM ET) | Yordan Alvarez | HR Yes (24.68¢) | $385.04 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SEA vs COL (3:10 PM ET) | Hunter Goodman | HR Yes (22.71¢) | $417.99 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SF vs LAD (4:10 PM ET) | Mookie Betts | HR Yes (17.81¢) | $531.11 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| MIA vs SD (4:10 PM ET) | Fernando Tatis Jr. | HR Yes (19.66¢) | $481.65 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| NYY vs ARI (4:10 PM ET) | Ben Rice | HR Yes (17¢) | $556.17 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| MIL vs BAL (7:20 PM ET) | Pete Alonso | HR Yes (20.21¢) | $468.90 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
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Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction
Philadelphia opens the day's slate at home against a Mets club that's well out of the race, and the Phillies send Cristopher Sánchez (17-6, 2.93 ERA) to the mound against rookie righty Brandon Tong.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Kyle Schwarber
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI vs NYM (1:10 PM ET) | Kyle Schwarber | HR Yes (27.26¢) | $349.22 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Schwarber has been the single best story in baseball's home run race all year, and he enters Sunday's finale against the Mets with a league-leading total in the mid-40s.
He's gone deep four times over his last five games and has cleared the 40-homer mark for the fourth time in five seasons, a stretch that includes a grand slam off Houston's bullpen earlier this month.
Tong has been a solid rookie find for New York, but he's still finding his footing against lineups this deep, and Citizens Bank Park remains one of the friendliest parks in baseball for a lefty pull-hitter like Schwarber.
We're taking a position on Schwarber going deep again to open the day's slate. The board has him at 26% (27.26¢ average), and a $100 buy here works out to roughly 367 shares at that price, each worth $1 if the market resolves Yes.
The platform's listed payout of $349.22 lands a bit below the raw share count, a gap that reflects order book depth and fees rather than a pricing error.
- If Schwarber goes deep: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $349.22 in profit on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
This is roughly a 4.5x payout multiple on a player who's been the most reliable home run threat in the sport all season, a favorable risk/reward shape to open the slate.
Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
Pittsburgh's playoff hopes are long gone, but Oneil Cruz's raw power still makes him a threat every time he steps in against Kansas City's Michael Wacha (9-9, 3.34 ERA).
Cruz has some of the hardest exit velocities in the league, and Wacha has been prone to the occasional big fly when he leaves a fastball up in the zone.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Oneil Cruz
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC vs PIT (1:35 PM ET) | Oneil Cruz | HR Yes (20¢) | $473.65 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Cruz is priced at an even 20% here, and we like the number given how often his batted-ball profile produces the kind of contact that clears fences regardless of the pitcher.
A $100 buy at the 20¢ average price works out to about 500 shares, matching cleanly with the platform's listed $473.65 profit figure on a winning resolution.
- If Cruz connects: the position pays out $473.65 in profit on top of the $100 stake.
- If not: the full stake is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Almost a 5.75x payout multiple for one of the most explosive power bats in the National League, a shape we like even at a middling implied probability.
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
Chicago's Alex Bregman has been the hottest hitter in baseball this month, and he draws a Cincinnati bullpen-day matchup behind struggling righty Chase Lowder (6-11, 5.79 ERA).
Bregman just put together his first career three-homer game earlier this month and has been sporting an OPS well over 1.000 dating back to the start of September.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Alex Bregman
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHC vs CIN (1:40 PM ET) | Alex Bregman | HR Yes (16.88¢) | $560.10 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
The board only has Bregman at 15% (16.88¢ average), which reads light given how he's been swinging the bat over the past two weeks against a Reds staff that's leaking home runs all September.
A $100 stake at that price buys roughly 592 shares, well above the platform's listed $560.10 profit figure once fees and order book depth are factored in.
- If Bregman goes deep: the trade resolves Yes for a $560.10 profit on the $100 stake.
- If not: the stake is lost in full, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
A 6.6x payout multiple on the hottest bat in the sport against a homer-prone starter is exactly the kind of price gap this market exists to find.
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction
Tampa Bay's Junior Caminero has emerged as one of the game's premier young sluggers, and he gets a Boston staff that's leaning on rookie lefty Patrick Sandoval (1-6, 4.99 ERA) for this one.
Caminero's raw power grades among the best in the sport for a player his age, and a shaky Red Sox rotation arm is the kind of matchup that plays right into that.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Junior Caminero
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOS vs TB (1:40 PM ET) | Junior Caminero | HR Yes (21.98¢) | $431.59 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Caminero sits at 21% here, and we think that's a fair reflection of a hitter who's still growing into his power but already does enough damage on contact to clear the fence against a struggling arm like Sandoval.
A $100 buy at 21.98¢ works out to roughly 455 shares, tracking closely with the platform's listed $431.59 profit on a winning resolution.
- If Caminero connects: the position pays out $431.59 in profit on the $100 stake.
- If not: the full stake is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.
A 5.3x payout multiple on one of the league's best young power bats against a rotation arm still finding his footing.
Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros Prediction
Houston's Yordan Alvarez enters Sunday's finale against Atlanta chasing a Triple Crown, and he's faced Braves righty Martín Pérez (9-9, 3.07 ERA) plenty over the years in AL/NL interleague play.
Alvarez leads the American League in batting average and sits second in both home runs and RBI this season, an incredible level of production for a hitter who's also dealt with a sore ankle in recent weeks.
His power has cooled slightly since the calendar flipped to September, but he's clearly healthy enough to be trusted again in a lineup spot this important.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Yordan Alvarez
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL vs HOU (2:10 PM ET) | Yordan Alvarez | HR Yes (24.68¢) | $385.04 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
This is the trade we're making for the middle of today's slate. Alvarez is priced at 23% (24.68¢ average), and given the stakes of his Triple Crown chase down the stretch, we like backing his bat to deliver again on a national afternoon window.
A $100 buy at that average price works out to roughly 405 shares, a touch above the platform's listed $385.04 profit figure once fees and order book depth are factored in.
- If Alvarez goes deep: the trade resolves Yes for a $385.04 profit on the $100 stake.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Roughly a 4.85x payout multiple on one of the sport's most feared bats during the most meaningful stretch of his season.
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Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies Prediction
Colorado's Hunter Goodman has quietly put together a strong power season, and he draws Seattle lefty Blake Anderson (1-2, 5.33 ERA), a matchup that clearly favors the hitter on paper.
Goodman has been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise lost Rockies season, and a struggling rookie arm making a spot start is exactly the kind of soft landing spot he needs.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Hunter Goodman
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA vs COL (3:10 PM ET) | Hunter Goodman | HR Yes (22.71¢) | $417.99 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Goodman is priced at 20% (22.71¢ average), and we think that undersells a hitter who's been one of the more productive power bats in a lineup that doesn't have many.
A $100 buy at that price works out to roughly 440 shares, close to the platform's listed $417.99 profit figure on a winning resolution.
- If Goodman connects: the position pays out $417.99 in profit on the $100 stake.
- If not: the full stake is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.
A 5.2x payout multiple against a rookie arm still working out his command in the majors.
San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction
Mookie Betts and the Dodgers roll into San Francisco for the late-afternoon window against Giants lefty Carson Wilkinson (1-3, 4.58 ERA), who's still finding his footing at the big-league level.
Betts remains one of the most consistent power/contact threats in the sport, and a shaky young starter is the kind of opportunity his bat tends to punish.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Mookie Betts
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF vs LAD (4:10 PM ET) | Mookie Betts | HR Yes (17.81¢) | $531.11 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Betts is priced at 17% here, a number we think is soft given his track record against exactly this kind of shaky, inexperienced starting pitching.
A $100 buy at 17.81¢ works out to roughly 562 shares, tracking closely with the platform's listed $531.11 profit on a winning resolution.
- If Betts goes deep: the trade resolves Yes for a $531.11 profit on the $100 stake.
- If not: the full stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
A 6.3x payout multiple on one of the most reliable bats in baseball against a rotation arm still establishing himself.
Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Prediction
San Diego's Fernando Tatis Jr. is having a quieter power year by his own standards, and he faces a genuinely tough draw in Miami's Sandy Alcántara (13-10, 3.84 ERA).
Tatis is still one of the most dangerous hitters in the league when he connects, but a quality strike-thrower like Alcántara is exactly the kind of matchup that's kept his home run total down this season.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Fernando Tatis Jr.
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA vs SD (4:10 PM ET) | Fernando Tatis Jr. | HR Yes (19.66¢) | $481.65 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
The 18% price here (19.66¢ average) is fair given the tough draw against Alcántara, but Tatis's raw talent still makes this a live number rather than one to fade outright.
A $100 buy at that price works out to roughly 509 shares, close to the platform's listed $481.65 profit figure on a winning resolution.
- If Tatis connects: the position pays out $481.65 in profit on the $100 stake.
- If not: the full stake is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Nearly a 5.8x payout multiple against a tough strike-thrower, a spot where we're comfortable with a smaller stake given the difficulty of the matchup.
New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction
Ben Rice has quietly become one of the best stories in baseball this season, and he gets a second look at this same Arizona club after homering off them on Friday to extend his hitting streak to seven games.
Rice is up to nearly 40 home runs on the year while filling the power void left by injuries elsewhere in the Yankees lineup, and Arizona's Corbin Burnes (0-0, 5.87 ERA) is making a shaky spot start.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Ben Rice
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYY vs ARI (4:10 PM ET) | Ben Rice | HR Yes (17¢) | $556.17 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Rice is priced at just 17% here, which looks light given his current hot streak and the fact that he's already gone deep against this exact Arizona pitching staff within the last 48 hours.
A $100 buy at 17¢ works out to roughly 588 shares, tracking closely with the platform's listed $556.17 profit on a winning resolution.
- If Rice goes deep: the trade resolves Yes for a $556.17 profit on the $100 stake.
- If not: the full stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
A 6.56x payout multiple on a hitter who's been arguably the hottest bat in the league right now against a rough spot starter.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction
Pete Alonso closes out the day's board for Baltimore, and he draws a genuinely difficult assignment in Milwaukee ace Jacob Misiorowski (15-5, 1.89 ERA).
Alonso has been on an absolute tear lately, going deep in three straight games and pacing the American League in RBI in his first season with the Orioles, but Misiorowski is about as tough a strikeout arm as exists in the league right now.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Pete Alonso
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIL vs BAL (7:20 PM ET) | Pete Alonso | HR Yes (20.21¢) | $468.90 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
The 18% price (20.21¢ average) is a fair reflection of just how tough Misiorowski's stuff has been all season, but Alonso's current hot streak keeps this from being an easy fade.
A $100 buy at that price works out to roughly 495 shares, close to the platform's listed $468.90 profit figure on a winning resolution.
- If Alonso connects: the position pays out $468.90 in profit on the $100 stake.
- If not: the full stake is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.
A 5.69x payout multiple to close the slate against one of the toughest arms in the sport right now, a genuine high-risk, high-reward closer for the day's card.
More home run props are live on Polymarket beyond the ten games covered here, including the rest of Sunday's full 15-game MLB slate.
Use Polymarket Promo Code 'ACTION' to Trade MLB Home Run Predictions Today
Ready to take a position on today's MLB predictions? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements as first pitches approach across the prediction markets hub.
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MLB Home Run Predictions Today: What's Moving the Market
The biggest theme on today's board is how many favorable pitching matchups are stacked up against elite bats in the same afternoon window.
Bregman, Rice, and Betts all sit priced below their season-long home run rates given the quality of arms they're facing, which is exactly the kind of gap this market rewards.
Alvarez's price reflects both his elite season-long production and the uncertainty around a hitter who's been dealing with a nagging ankle issue, a fair tension for a Triple Crown-caliber bat.
Anyone building out a broader slate around today's prediction market apps should keep an eye on lineup confirmations as first pitch approaches, since a late scratch can shift these prices quickly.
MLB Predictions: Final Thoughts
Sunday's home run board gives traders a genuinely wide range of price points, from Schwarber's favorite-priced 26% down to a handful of names sitting in the high teens.
The best home run bets today lean toward hitters facing shaky or unproven arms, a theme that shows up repeatedly across this slate's promo codes and pricing alike.
Whichever names you land on, treat every one of these as an independent, all-or-nothing contract rather than a parlay, and size stakes accordingly across a 15-game day.
MLB Predictions and Home Run Bets: Polymarket Promo Code FAQs
What is today's Polymarket promo code?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $50 trading bonus for new users who deposit $10 or more.
What are the best home run bets today?
Our board highlights ten home run props across Sunday's MLB slate, with Kyle Schwarber, Alex Bregman, Ben Rice, and Mookie Betts standing out as some of the best home run bets today based on price versus matchup quality.
Who is favored to hit a home run in today's MLB slate?
Kyle Schwarber carries the highest implied probability on today's board at 26%, reflecting his MLB-leading home run total this season.
How do Polymarket home run contracts work?
Each contract resolves Yes if the named player hits at least one home run in that specific game, and No if they don't; the contract settles all-or-nothing based on the final result.
How do I use the Polymarket promo code to trade these props?
Sign up through a switchboard link on this page, deposit at least $10, and enter promo code ACTION during registration to unlock the $50 trading bonus before placing any trades.
When do these Polymarket contracts resolve?
Each home run contract resolves shortly after its game reaches its final out, once the official box score is confirmed.
What's the Editor's Pick for today's home run predictions?
Our Editor's Pick today is Yordan Alvarez going deep against Atlanta, a trade built around his Triple Crown chase and a favorable price relative to his season-long production.
Are there more MLB home run props available today beyond this list?
Yes, Sunday's full MLB predictions board runs 15 games in total, and Polymarket carries active home run markets on every one of them beyond the ten highlighted here.
