Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Schwarber are locked in a home run race that's coming down to the final weeks of the season, Fernando Tatis Jr. has completed one of the wildest turnarounds in baseball, and a red-hot rookie import in Toronto is quietly rewriting the Blue Jays' record books.
Today's 13-game Polymarket home run slate spans the whole league, from a $155 million free-agent addition in Baltimore to a longshot shortstop just off his first career 20-homer season.
Use this table as the quick-scan version of our full MLB predictions breakdown, then jump into any game section for the complete rationale.
Best Home Run Bets Today: Top MLB Predictions for Sept 19, 2026
We broke down the best home run bets today across every game on Saturday's board, ranked each pick's Yes price against real recent form, and picked out our favorite Polymarket trade for the heart of the slate.
Every home run prop below is ranked from the highest implied probability down to the longest shot, based on Polymarket's Yes price at the time these tickets were pulled.
Before diving in, new traders should know about the current Polymarket promo code: ACTION, which allows new users to Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus!
Brewers vs Orioles Prediction
Milwaukee (96-58) has the best record in baseball and rolls into Camden Yards against an Orioles club (75-79) getting one of the best returns on a free-agent deal in recent memory: Pete Alonso.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Pete Alonso
| ⚾ Game | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIL vs BAL (4:05 PM ET) | Pete Alonso | HR Yes (22¢) | $431.18 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Alonso signed a five-year, $155 million deal with Baltimore over the winter, and even in a lost season for the Orioles, he's been exactly the power bat they paid for.
He's up to 36 home runs with an .861 OPS, trailing only Pete Crow-Armstrong and Yordan Alvarez in win probability added among the league's best hitters this year.
A 22¢ price on a hitter this locked in, against a Brewers staff that's already clinched their division, looks like fair value with a bit of room to grow.
A $100 buy at 22¢ works out to roughly 455 shares, each worth $1 if the market resolves Yes; Polymarket lists the payout at $431.18, a normal gap from the raw share math tied to order book depth and fees.
- If Alonso goes deep: the position pays out around $431.18, a profit near $331.18 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Close to 4.3-to-1 on one of the best free-agent investments in the sport this year is a clean way to open the slate.
Red Sox vs Rays Prediction
Tampa Bay (93-60) has already clinched its playoff spot and Junior Caminero has been at the center of the run, while Boston (84-70) is still fighting to lock up its own postseason position.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Junior Caminero
| ⚾ Game | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOS vs TB (4:10 PM ET) | Junior Caminero | HR Yes (22¢) | $431.18 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Caminero is still one of the best power stories in the sport, and the price here reflects a hitter who's been must-watch for weeks.
At just 23, he's already outslugged veteran competition in the Home Run Derby field this summer and remains squarely in the AL home run picture down the stretch.
A 22¢ price for a hitter this dangerous, against a Red Sox staff still jockeying for playoff position, is a number worth taking.
A $100 buy at 22¢ works out to roughly 455 shares, worth $1 apiece if he connects; Polymarket's listed payout of $431.18 runs close to that raw math, the usual gap tied to order book fees.
- If Caminero homers: the position pays out around $431.18, a profit near $331.18.
- If he doesn't: the $100 stake is gone entirely.
Close to 4.3-to-1 on one of the sport's most explosive young power bats is a solid price to build the slate around.
Phillies vs Mets Prediction
Kyle Schwarber leads all of MLB with 45 home runs and the Phillies (85-69) are fighting for playoff positioning, while the Mets (70-84) are playing spoiler down the stretch.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Kyle Schwarber
| ⚾ Game | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI vs NYM (4:10 PM ET) | Kyle Schwarber | HR Yes (26¢) | $365.80 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Schwarber remains the highest-priced HR contract on the board, and Pete Crow-Armstrong is now just one homer behind him for the MLB lead.
That race adds real juice to every one of Schwarber's plate appearances the rest of the way, and Philadelphia badly needs the offense in a tight playoff push.
A 26% implied chance for the sport's most feared left-handed power bat is right in line with his pace all year.
A $100 buy at 26¢ nets roughly 385 shares, worth $1 each on a winning resolution; the board's $365.80 payout tracks close to that raw figure once fees and order book depth are factored in.
- If Schwarber connects: the position pays out around $365.80, a profit near $265.80.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
Better than 3.6-to-1 on a hitter fighting to hold off Crow-Armstrong for the league lead is a fair number given how much is on the line.
Athletics vs Guardians Prediction
Cleveland (79-75) is still hunting a Wild Card spot and leaned on a August trade for outfielder Jo Adell to boost a punchless lineup, while the A's (61-93) are well out of contention.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Jo Adell
| ⚾ Game | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATH vs CLE (6:10 PM ET) | Jo Adell | HR Yes (19.79¢) | $478.60 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Adell has real raw power that carried over from Anaheim, and the Guardians acquired him at the deadline specifically to add thump to a light-hitting lineup.
He's a notably better hitter against left-handed pitching this year, and his bat speed still grades near the top of the league even during a down offensive season overall.
Against a fading A's pitching staff, a 19.79¢ price for a hitter with this kind of raw pop looks like a fair number with some upside attached.
A $100 stake at 19.79¢ buys roughly 505 shares, each worth $1 on a winning resolution; the listed $478.60 payout tracks closely with that raw math.
- If Adell goes deep: the payout lands around $478.60, a profit near $378.60.
- If not: the $100 stake is lost entirely.
Nearly 4.8-to-1 on a hitter with genuine top-of-the-scale power is a reasonable swing late in a lost season for both clubs.
Cubs vs Reds Prediction
Chicago (85-69) is riding an MVP-caliber season from Pete Crow-Armstrong, who just broke the Cubs' single-season home run record for left-handed hitters, against a Reds club (72-82) playing out the string.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Pete Crow-Armstrong
| ⚾ Game | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHC vs CIN (6:40 PM ET) | Pete Crow-Armstrong | HR Yes (30.49¢) | $312.90 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Crow-Armstrong is the single hottest name in baseball right now, with 44 home runs and a legitimate NL MVP case that's only strengthening by the week.
He smashed two more homers just three days ago against Atlanta, his seventh multi-homer game of the season, and sits just one behind Schwarber for the outright MLB lead.
Against a Reds club with nothing left to play for, a 30% price on the league's hottest power bat looks entirely fair, maybe even a touch light.
A $100 buy at 30.49¢ works out to roughly 328 shares, each worth $1 if the pick hits; the board's $312.90 payout tracks close to that raw figure once fees and order book depth are factored in.
- If Crow-Armstrong connects: the payout lands around $312.90, a profit near $212.90.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
Better than 3-to-1 on the hottest hitter in the sport chasing an MLB home run title is one of the cleaner looks on the entire board tonight.
Royals vs Pirates Prediction
Kansas City (67-87) is out of contention, but Vinnie Pasquantino has been swinging one of the hottest bats on the roster right into a rematch with the same Pittsburgh (77-77) pitching staff he hurt last night.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Vinnie Pasquantino
| ⚾ Game | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC vs PIT (6:40 PM ET) | Vinnie Pasquantino | HR Yes (16¢) | $590.50 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Pasquantino literally just did this against these same Pirates: a first-pitch homer off Paul Skenes last night to open the scoring in a Royals win.
He followed that with a single and two runs scored, exactly the kind of form we want to buy into again a day later.
A 16¢ price on a hitter who's proven he can do it against this exact pitching staff within the last 24 hours looks undervalued.
A $100 stake at 16¢ buys roughly 625 shares, each worth $1 on a winning resolution; the listed $590.50 payout runs above that raw math, the usual gap from order book depth.
- If Pasquantino goes deep: the payout lands around $590.50, a profit near $490.50.
- If not: the $100 stake is lost entirely.
Nearly 6-to-1 on a hitter who already went deep against this pitching staff one night ago is one of the sharper value plays tonight.
Blue Jays vs Rangers Prediction
Toronto (76-78) and Texas (77-77) are tied in the standings and both fighting for the final AL Wild Card spot, with rookie sensation Kazuma Okamoto at the center of the Blue Jays' playoff push.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Kazuma Okamoto
| ⚾ Game | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOR vs TEX (7:05 PM ET) | Kazuma Okamoto | HR Yes (20.2¢) | $469.11 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
This is our featured trade for the middle of tonight's slate, and we're buying into Okamoto with real conviction.
The NPB import has 33 home runs in his rookie season and is red-hot right now, five homers over his last seven games while slashing .348/.464/1.043 in that stretch.
With Toronto and Texas tied in the standings and both fighting for the same Wild Card spot, this is exactly the kind of high-leverage series where his bat has carried the Blue Jays all September.
A $100 stake at 20.2¢ buys roughly 495 shares, each worth $1 if the market resolves Yes. Polymarket's listed $469.11 payout tracks close to that raw share math, the usual gap from order book depth on a market this size, not an error to reconcile.
- If Okamoto goes deep: the position pays out around $469.11, a profit near $369.11.
- If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Better than 4.6-to-1 on the hottest rookie slugger in the sport, in a game with real playoff stakes attached, is the best combination of price and form on the whole board tonight.
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Braves vs Astros Prediction
Houston (77-77) is fighting to hold onto the AL West, and Yordan Alvarez has been chasing a Triple Crown all year, though his power has cooled noticeably since the calendar turned to August.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Yordan Alvarez
| ⚾ Game | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL vs HOU (7:10 PM ET) | Yordan Alvarez | HR Yes (26.33¢) | $361.33 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Alvarez remains one of the best pure hitters alive and ranks third in the league in win probability added, but this pick comes with a caveat worth stating plainly.
His power has been quieter than his overall numbers suggest since August, even as his average and on-base skills have stayed elite.
At 26%, the market is pricing him more on season-long talent than his most recent power output, which makes this a bet on a return to form rather than a continuation of current form.
A $100 buy at 26.33¢ works out to roughly 380 shares, each worth $1 on a Yes resolution; the board's $361.33 payout tracks close to that raw math.
- If Alvarez connects: the payout lands around $361.33, a profit near $261.33.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
Roughly 3.6-to-1 on a hitter this talented is fair value, but the recent power dip is real and worth weighing before committing a larger stake.
Nationals vs Cardinals Prediction
Jordan Walker just became the first Cardinal since Tommy Pham to join the 20/20 club, and now sits at 20-plus homers, 20-plus steals and 100 RBI, a feat not even Albert Pujols managed for St. Louis (75-79).
Best Home Run Prop Today – Jordan Walker
| ⚾ Game | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| WSH vs STL (7:15 PM ET) | Jordan Walker | HR Yes (16¢) | $590.50 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Walker is in the middle of a genuinely historic breakout season, capped by winning this year's Home Run Derby in Philadelphia over hometown favorite Kyle Schwarber.
He's an All-Star for the first time and just authored one of the rarest statistical seasons in Cardinals franchise history.
Against a Nationals club with little left to play for, a 16¢ price on a hitter this locked in feels light.
A $100 buy at 16¢ works out to roughly 625 shares, each worth $1 on a winning resolution; the listed $590.50 payout runs above that raw math, the usual order book gap.
- If Walker goes deep: the payout lands around $590.50, a profit near $490.50.
- If not: the $100 stake is lost entirely.
Nearly 6-to-1 on a hitter in the middle of a franchise-record season is one of the better value plays on tonight's board.
Mariners vs Rockies Prediction
Colorado (56-98) has been the league's worst team all year, and Seattle (72-82) is leaning on a hot September from Josh Naylor, even though his game is built far more on contact and speed than raw power.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Josh Naylor
| ⚾ Game | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA vs COL (8:10 PM ET) | Josh Naylor | HR Yes (12¢) | $785.33 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Naylor is only at 10 home runs this season, which explains the modest 12% price even during a hot stretch at the plate.
He's hitting .313 in September and is up to 29 stolen bases, but the power just hasn't been part of his game this year the way it has in past seasons.
Against one of the league's worst pitching staffs, there's still a real path to a longshot payout here even for a low-power profile.
A $100 buy at 12¢ works out to roughly 833 shares, each worth $1 on a winning resolution; the listed $785.33 payout runs a bit under that raw figure, a normal gap tied to order book fees.
- If Naylor connects: the payout lands around $785.33, a profit near $685.33.
- If not: the full $100 is lost.
Nearly 7.9-to-1 makes this a small-stake lottery ticket against the league's weakest pitching staff, not a bet on a sudden power surge.
Yankees vs Diamondbacks Prediction
New York (89-64) hosts an Arizona club (80-74) getting shortstop Geraldo Perdomo, who just posted his first career 20-homer season despite otherwise modest raw power.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Geraldo Perdomo
| ⚾ Game | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYY vs ARI (8:10 PM ET) | Geraldo Perdomo | HR Yes (7.1¢) | $1,322.80 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Perdomo just reached 20 home runs for the first time in his career, a real milestone for a switch-hitting shortstop who's never profiled as a power threat.
His bat cooled considerably after that milestone, going through a stretch as cold as 8-for-47 before a recent homer broke the drought.
This is the longest shot on tonight's board, and it's priced that way for good reason given his overall power profile.
A $100 buy at 7.1¢ works out to roughly 1,408 shares, each worth $1 on a winning resolution; the listed $1,322.80 payout runs a bit under that raw figure, a normal gap tied to order book fees.
- If Perdomo connects: the payout lands around $1,322.80, a profit near $1,222.80.
- If not: the full $100 is lost.
Better than 13-to-1 makes this a true lottery-ticket swing on a shortstop who's already banked a career year, whatever happens tonight.
Marlins vs Padres Prediction
San Diego (85-69) is closing in on a Wild Card spot, and Fernando Tatis Jr. has completed one of the most stunning turnarounds in recent memory after a 55-game homerless drought to open the year.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Fernando Tatis Jr.
| ⚾ Game | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA vs SD (8:40 PM ET) | Fernando Tatis Jr. | HR Yes (20.74¢) | $457.09 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Tatis didn't hit his first homer of the year until May 30, and the drought became a national storyline in its own right.
Since then, he's been unrecognizable in the best way: 23 homers in the 94 games since, a .301/.379/.612 line, and five bombs of 450-plus feet, the most in baseball.
A 20.74¢ price on a hitter swinging this well, this deep into the season, is one of the better value spots on the whole slate.
A $100 stake at 20.74¢ buys roughly 482 shares, each worth $1 on a winning resolution; the listed $457.09 payout tracks close to that raw math.
- If Tatis goes deep: the payout lands around $457.09, a profit near $357.09.
- If not: the $100 stake is lost entirely.
Close to 4.6-to-1 on a hitter completing one of the wildest turnarounds in recent memory is a trade worth making.
Twins vs Angels Prediction
Minnesota (72-82) closes out the road trip against the Angels (59-95), with Kody Clemens fresh off setting a new career high in home runs.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Kody Clemens
| ⚾ Game | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN vs LAA (9:38 PM ET) | Kody Clemens | HR Yes (18¢) | $525.61 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Clemens just hit his 25th home run of the season, a new career high, and four of those have come over his last 11 games.
He's slashing .243/.370/.568 during that stretch, exactly the kind of form that makes an 18% price worth a look against a last-place Angels club.
This closes out tonight's slate against one of the league's weaker pitching staffs, which only helps his case.
A $100 buy at 18¢ works out to roughly 556 shares, each worth $1 if the pick hits; the board's $525.61 payout tracks close to that raw math.
- If Clemens connects: the payout lands around $525.61, a profit near $425.61.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
Close to 5.3-to-1 on a hitter riding a career-best power season is a strong closing spot for tonight's home run card.
These 13 games aren't the only home run markets live on Polymarket tonight. Additional single-game props and full-slate contracts are available on the platform beyond what's broken down above.
Use Polymarket Promo Code 'ACTION' to Trade MLB Home Run Predictions Today
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- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Monitor the home run tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of live order book movements throughout the day.
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Best Home Run Bets Today: Final Thoughts on Today's MLB Predictions
Across all 13 games, Pete Crow-Armstrong at 30.49¢ carries the highest implied probability on the board, fitting for a hitter one homer behind Kyle Schwarber in MLB's closest home run race in years.
Our featured trade of the night, Kazuma Okamoto at 20.2¢, offers the best blend of price and current form on the whole slate, and he's the pick getting the full CTA treatment above.
The longest shot, Geraldo Perdomo at 7.1¢, is the kind of ticket worth a small stake rather than a season-defining one, given the payout multiple involved.
If you're new to prediction markets, our beginner's guide to Polymarket breaks down exactly how these contracts price and settle before you commit any real money.
Whatever you decide across these MLB predictions, check the Polymarket app for live movement before first pitch, since some of these Yes prices will shift as more of today's slate gets underway.
MLB Home Run Predictions Today FAQs: Polymarket Promo Code
What is the Polymarket promo code today?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $50 trading bonus for new users who deposit at least $10.
What are the best home run bets today on Polymarket?
Pete Crow-Armstrong at 30.49¢ carries the highest implied probability on the board, though Kazuma Okamoto at 20.2¢ and Vinnie Pasquantino at 16¢ stand out as the better value plays given their recent form.
Which pick is the featured trade in tonight's MLB predictions?
Kazuma Okamoto's home run prop against the Rangers is the editor's featured trade for tonight's slate, based on his red-hot rookie form and a Yes price that hasn't fully caught up to it.
How do Polymarket home run contracts work?
Each contract asks whether a specific player will hit at least one home run in that game. A Yes share pays out $1 if the player homers, and the whole position is worth nothing if they don't, since these markets settle all-or-nothing.
Who is favored to hit a home run tonight?
Pete Crow-Armstrong carries the highest Yes price on the board at 30.49¢, fitting for a hitter one home run behind Kyle Schwarber in MLB's tightest home run race in years.
When do today's home run markets resolve?
These contracts resolve shortly after each game finishes, once the final box score confirms whether the named player recorded a home run.
Are there more MLB home run predictions today beyond this slate?
Yes. Beyond the 13 games broken down here, Polymarket lists additional home run props and full-slate contracts for today's remaining MLB games.
How much can new users win with the Polymarket promo code ACTION?
New users who sign up with promo code ACTION and deposit at least $10 can unlock a $50 trading bonus to use across any of today's markets.
