Five games remain in the 2026 regular season, and Wednesday's 15-game MLB slate is loaded with playoff stakes from start to finish.
The Phillies, Cubs, Padres, and Diamondbacks are all jockeying for the final National League Wild Card spots, while the Rockies just locked up their fourth straight 100-loss season.
Home run props are lit up across the board tonight, from Kyle Schwarber's NL-leading power binge in Philadelphia to Junior Caminero chasing Yordan Alvarez for the American League home run crown in Tampa.
Here is our full roundup of MLB home run predictions today, built around eight Polymarket tickets worth trading across tonight's slate.
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIL vs PHI (6:40 PM ET) | Kyle Schwarber | HR Yes (25¢) | $380.20 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| STL vs PIT (6:40 PM ET) | Oneil Cruz | HR Yes (14¢) | $674.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| TB vs NYY (7:05 PM ET) | Junior Caminero | HR Yes (19¢) | $498.26 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| CIN vs ATL (7:15 PM ET) | Matt Olson | HR Yes (19.37¢) | $488.90 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| MIA vs CHC (7:40 PM ET) | Pete Crow-Armstrong | HR Yes (19.19¢) | $493.45 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| ARI vs COL (8:40 PM ET) | Nolan Arenado | HR Yes (17¢) | $556.17 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| HOU vs SEA (10:10 PM ET) | Yordan Alvarez | HR Yes (22¢) | $431.18 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SD vs LAD (10:10 PM ET) | Mookie Betts | HR Yes (17¢) | $556.17 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Brewers vs Phillies Prediction
Milwaukee has already clinched the NL Central and a Wild Card Series bye at 98-59, so this one means more to Philadelphia, which can punch its own playoff ticket with a win tonight.
None of that has slowed down Kyle Schwarber, who enters play with an NL-leading home run total and remains one of the most reliable power bats in the sport to build a ticket around.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Kyle Schwarber
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIL vs PHI (6:40 PM ET) | Kyle Schwarber | HR Yes (25¢) | $380.20 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Schwarber has spent the entire season as the Phillies' offensive engine, and nothing about tonight's spot changes that.
He is on the board at 25 cents, the shortest price of any player in our best home run bets today lineup, and that alone tells you where the market thinks the power is likeliest to show up.
The Phillies' lineup construction around him has not changed either. He still sees the highest volume of pitches in the strike zone of any Philadelphia hitter because nobody behind him is punished for pitching around Schwarber the way they once were.
We are backing him again tonight, treating this as the trade we are making on the entire slate.
On the ticket, the Buy price shows 25 cents with a $100 order, which fills at an average price of 25 cents. That works out to roughly 100 ÷ 0.25, or about 400 shares, each worth $1 if the market resolves Yes.
- If Schwarber goes deep tonight: profit of $380.20.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That is roughly a 3.8x payout multiple on a contract we like at a near coin-flip price given how often Schwarber's bat has shown up all year.
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Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction
St. Louis is buried in a rebuild at 76-81, but Pittsburgh has been one of the surprise power stories of 2026, setting a new franchise home run record with 10 games still left to play.
Oneil Cruz is the reason why. He missed 61 games with a fractured hand and still put together his third straight 20-20 season, and he has been even better since returning, slashing .318 with an OPS near .940 over his last month.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Oneil Cruz
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| STL vs PIT (6:40 PM ET) | Oneil Cruz | HR Yes (14¢) | $674.00 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Cruz is the longest price on our whole board at 14 cents, which also makes him the biggest payout in this piece.
The $100 order fills at an average of 14 cents, working out to roughly 714 shares at $1 apiece if the contract hits.
Settle Yes and that is a profit of $674.00 on the $100 stake; settle No and the full stake is gone. At 14 cents, this is a lottery-ticket price on a hitter capable of legitimate 450-foot power, so size it like the longshot it is.
Rays vs Yankees Prediction
Tampa Bay has already wrapped up the AL East at 96-61, while New York heads into October fighting for wild-card seeding at 90-67.
Junior Caminero is the story here. He is chasing Yordan Alvarez for the American League home run crown and delivered a walk-off blast against Oakland just last week, so a hot Rays lineup facing the Yankees carries real thump.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Junior Caminero
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB vs NYY (7:05 PM ET) | Junior Caminero | HR Yes (19¢) | $498.26 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Caminero is priced at 19 cents here, right in the middle of tonight's board.
A $100 order at that average price buys roughly 526 shares, each worth $1 on a Yes resolution.
Hit it and the profit is $498.26; miss and the $100 is gone. That is just shy of a 5x return on a hitter who has been one of the two or three most dangerous power bats in the American League all season.
Reds vs Braves Prediction
Atlanta has already clinched the NL East at 92-65, while Cincinnati is playing out the string at 73-84.
Matt Olson is still a threat every time he steps in, and a fading Reds pitching staff down the stretch gives him a soft landing spot for a home run swing tonight.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Matt Olson
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN vs ATL (7:15 PM ET) | Matt Olson | HR Yes (19.37¢) | $488.90 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Olson sits at an average price of 19.37 cents, just a touch above the board's headline number, which is normal for a $100 order moving the line slightly.
That fills roughly 516 shares at $1 each if the contract hits.
A Yes result pays a profit of $488.90; a No wipes out the $100 stake entirely. That is just under a 5x multiple on a hitter with 328 career home runs who has punished lesser pitching staffs all year.
Marlins vs Cubs Prediction
Chicago can clinch a playoff berth outright with a win tonight, while Miami is playing spoiler at 77-80.
Pete Crow-Armstrong has been the best story in baseball this season, a legitimate NL MVP candidate with 45 home runs, a .948 OPS, and the best defense at any position in the sport.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Pete Crow-Armstrong
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA vs CHC (7:40 PM ET) | Pete Crow-Armstrong | HR Yes (19.19¢) | $493.45 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
We are taking a position on Crow-Armstrong tonight, and it is not a small one for us.
He has been the single most productive player in the sport since June 1, with 34 home runs in his last 86 games alone, a pace that would translate to well over 60 across a full season.
A Cubs team playing with a division and Wild Card berth on the line tends to keep running its best hitter out there in the middle of the order every single at-bat, and that means plenty of chances tonight.
This is the trade we are making with a clinching scenario on the table for Chicago.
The ticket fills at an average price of 19.19 cents on a $100 order, buying roughly 521 shares, each worth $1 on a winning resolution.
- If Crow-Armstrong connects: profit of $493.45.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That is just under a 5x payout multiple on a hitter enjoying one of the best individual seasons in modern Cubs history.
Diamondbacks vs Rockies Prediction
Arizona is fading out of the Wild Card picture at 83-74, while Colorado just locked up its fourth consecutive 100-loss season at 57-100.
Nolan Arenado, once the face of the Rockies franchise before being traded away, delivered the blow that pushed Colorado to loss No. 100 with a home run against his old team just last night, and he is right back at Coors Field again tonight.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Nolan Arenado
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI vs COL (8:40 PM ET) | Nolan Arenado | HR Yes (17¢) | $556.17 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Arenado sits at 17 cents, and the thin Coors Field air has treated him well in his return trips to Colorado this season.
A $100 order at that price buys roughly 588 shares at $1 each on a Yes resolution.
A home run pays a profit of $556.17; no home run loses the full $100 stake. That is better than a 5.5x multiple against a Rockies pitching staff that has been picked apart all year.
Astros vs Mariners Prediction
Houston has already clinched the AL West at 78-79, while Seattle closes out a disappointing 73-84 season on the road.
Yordan Alvarez spent most of the summer chasing a Triple Crown and still leads the American League in home runs, even after cooling off some from his midseason peak.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Yordan Alvarez
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU vs SEA (10:10 PM ET) | Yordan Alvarez | HR Yes (22¢) | $431.18 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Alvarez is priced at 22 cents, the second-shortest number on our entire board behind only Schwarber.
A $100 order at that average price buys roughly 455 shares, each worth $1 if the market resolves Yes.
A home run pays a profit of $431.18; without one, the full $100 stake is lost. That is a touch above a 4.3x multiple on one of the two or three best pure hitters on the planet in a late-season, low-pressure spot for his club.
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Padres vs Dodgers Prediction
Los Angeles has the NL West wrapped up at 97-60 and can lock up a top seed with a win, while San Diego is still fighting for a Wild Card spot at 87-70.
Mookie Betts remains one of the most complete hitters in the sport, and a game with playoff seeding on the line for both sides tends to keep the Dodgers' lineup running at full strength deep into the night.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Mookie Betts
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| SD vs LAD (10:10 PM ET) | Mookie Betts | HR Yes (17¢) | $556.17 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Betts is priced at 17 cents in the late West Coast finale, tied with Arenado for the third-longest number on tonight's board.
A $100 order fills at that average price for roughly 588 shares at $1 apiece on a winning resolution.
A home run pays a profit of $556.17; no home run and the $100 stake is gone. That is a 5.56x multiple on a future Hall of Famer who has been at his best in exactly these kinds of high-stakes September games for a decade.
There are plenty more games and props live on Polymarket beyond the eight tickets covered in this roundup, so check the full board before tonight's first pitch.
Use Polymarket Promo Code 'ACTION' to Trade MLB Home Run Predictions Today
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MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Final Thoughts
Every price on this board is moving fast tonight because so many of these games carry real playoff weight, and that pressure tends to bring out the best in the sport's biggest bats.
Schwarber and Crow-Armstrong sit at the top of our best home run bets today rankings for good reason, but the longer prices on Cruz and Betts carry real upside if you want to spread a small amount of risk across the board.
New traders exploring prediction markets for the first time should start small and build up a feel for how these order books move before committing serious size, and it is worth bookmarking the prediction market apps roundup if you want a mobile-friendly way to track tonight's action.
Polymarket Promo Code FAQs
What is the Polymarket promo code today?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, and it unlocks a $50 trading bonus for new users who deposit $10 or more.
Which MLB player is favored to hit a home run tonight?
Kyle Schwarber carries the shortest price on tonight's board at 25 cents, making him the favorite among the eight best home run bets today covered in this piece.
What is the biggest underdog home run prop tonight?
Oneil Cruz is priced at 14 cents against the Cardinals, the longest number on the board and the largest potential profit at $674.00 on a $100 stake.
How do Polymarket home run contracts settle?
Each contract resolves based on the official box score once a game is final. A Yes share is worth $1 if the named player hits at least one home run, and $0 if not, with no partial settlement either way.
What is the editor's top home run pick tonight?
Kyle Schwarber and Pete Crow-Armstrong are our two flagship trades on this slate, both backed with full-size positions given their season-long power numbers and the playoff stakes surrounding their games.
How does the Polymarket promo code work?
New users create an account, use promo code ACTION during sign-up, and make a qualifying deposit of $10 or more to unlock the $50 trading bonus.
When do tonight's home run contracts resolve?
Every contract on this board resolves shortly after its game reaches a final score, once the official box score confirms whether the named player recorded a home run.
Where can I find the best home run bets today and MLB home run predictions today?
This piece is built specifically around that question, pulling all eight home run props from tonight's Polymarket boards into one ranked roundup of the best home run bets today and the day's full MLB home run predictions today across the sport.
Are there more MLB props available tonight beyond these eight?
Yes. Polymarket carries markets on nearly every game on the 15-game slate, including moneyline, spread, and total contracts alongside additional player props beyond home runs.
