Viral Hits Night claimed a big name. Giada De Laurentiis and pro partner Alan Bersten were eliminated from Dancing with the Stars Season 35 on Tuesday, Sept. 22, after their salsa to "Bella Ciao" landed a 12 out of 30 and tied them for last on the leaderboard.
The bigger story for traders is what happened above them. Kalshi has handled more than $2.26 million on its Season 35 winner market and now shows a brand new favorite, while Polymarket's board still has the premiere-week leader on top. Most interesting, however, is that the two exchanges do not agree on who is winning this season.
Who's Already Left the Ballroom: Season 35 Elimination Recap
Season 35 opened with a 16-couple cast, tied for the largest in show history, and a two-night premiere that sent two couples home before Week 2 even started.
- Conner Leavitt & Adele Zaikman, eliminated Sept. 15 on the men's premiere night after a 12 out of 30 salsa.
- Sarah Jane Nader & Hailey Bills, eliminated Sept. 16 on the women's premiere night after a 14-point jive to "Sk8er Boi."
- Giada De Laurentiis & Alan Bersten, eliminated Sept. 22 on Viral Hits Night with a 12 out of 30 salsa.
That leaves 13 couples chasing the Mirrorball, with Yacht Rock Night up next on Tuesday, Sept. 29.
DWTS Week 2 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists one event contract per celebrity in its Season 35 winner market, each priced between 1¢ and 99¢. That price is the implied probability: a contract at 26¢ means the market gives that couple a 26% chance, and a "Yes" position settles at $1 if they win the Mirrorball and at zero if they don't.
Resolution is tied to the announced Season 35 champion, so these contracts stay live all the way to the finale. Here is where the board sits after Week 2.
| 💃 Couple | 🏆 Winner Chance | 💵 Yes Price | 📈 Week 2 Move | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📊 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach | 26% | 26¢ | +18 | $284.62 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas | 18% | 18¢ | -3 | $455.56 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson | 16% | 17¢ | -4 | $488.24 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy | 15% | 15¢ | No change | $566.67 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov | 11% | 11¢ | +3 | $809.09 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold | 4% | 4¢ | No change | $2,400.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Jackson Olson & Emma Slater | 3% | 4¢ | -3 | $2,400.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa | 3% | 4¢ | No change | $2,400.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess | 1% | 2¢ | -2 | $4,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Taylor Hanson & Britt Stewart | 1% | 2¢ | -2 | $4,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Ciara Miller & Brandon Armstrong | Under 1% | 1¢ | No change | $9,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik | Under 1% | 1¢ | No change | $9,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Guillermo Rodriguez & Witney Carson | Under 1% | 1¢ | No change | $9,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach
Frech is the new market leader at 26¢, implying a 26% chance, and he is the single biggest mover on the board after an 18-point jump. The Paralympian followed a 20-point tango in the premiere with a 21 out of 30 cha-cha to "Low" by Flo Rida, one of three couples tied at the top of Week 2.
A move that size is enormous this early, and it reflects a trader read that Karagach, a past Mirrorball winner, has a genuine athlete with a compelling story arc. The market now prices him roughly 8 points clear of the field.
Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas
Higgins sits second at 18¢, or an 18% implied probability, down three points. She topped the premiere leaderboard with a 21-point foxtrot to "Black Velvet," but her 19 out of 30 cha-cha to "September" was only good enough for fourth on Viral Hits Night.
Ballas remains one of the most decorated pros in the ballroom, which is part of why the market hasn't moved further off her. The Love Island UK alum still has the strongest technical baseline of any reality-TV cast member here.
Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson
Shum Jr. took the sharpest hit of anyone in the top tier, sliding four points to 17¢ and a 16% implied probability. After a 21-point cha-cha opened his season as a co-favorite, his Viennese waltz to "Iris" dropped to an 18 and traders moved off him.
The Glee and Crazy Rich Asians alum is still the most credible pure dancer in the cast, so this is a correction rather than a collapse. One strong ballroom week puts him right back in the conversation.
Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy
Dewan is priced at 15¢, implying a 15% chance, essentially unchanged since the market opened. She opened Week 2 with a jive to "Animal" that Derek Hough called fast, fierce and fantastic, good for 21 out of 30 and a share of the lead. She is the most experienced dancer in the field by a wide margin.
That flat price tells you the market long ago baked in both her ceiling and the "ringer" narrative that can drag on the fan vote.
Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov
The figure skater is up three points to 11¢, an 11% implied probability, after what Bruno Tonioli called the best tango of the night, a 21 out of 30 to "All the Things She Said." Glenn is the other Olympian in this cast and the clearest live longshot on the board.
Where the rest of the Kalshi field stands
- Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold: A 15-point tango keeps the comedian well off the pace at 4¢, though he survived a premiere-week danger zone.
- Jackson Olson & Emma Slater: An 18 out of 30 foxtrot was solid, but the market trimmed him three points to 3% after a quiet week.
- Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa: Her 16-point tango to "The Door" left the actress in the bottom half of the leaderboard and at 3% on the board.
- Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess: A 16 out of 30 and a shirtless moment weren't enough to hold his price, which fell two points to 1%.
- Taylor Hanson & Britt Stewart: A 15-point cha-cha to "Cake by the Ocean" puts the musician near the danger zone, and he is down two points to 1%.
- Ciara Miller & Brandon Armstrong: The Summer House star's 18-point tango was a real step up from a forgettable premiere, though she is still under 1%.
- Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik: An 18 out of 30 foxtrot counted as a comeback week for the actress, who trades under 1%.
- Guillermo Rodriguez & Witney Carson: A 12 out of 30 paso doble earned a standing ovation from Derek Hough but tied him for last, and he sits under 1%.
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DWTS Week 2 Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket runs the same question as a single winner market with one outcome per celebrity, quoted in percentage terms rather than cents. The mechanics are identical: buy "Yes" on a contract at 30% and it pays out in full if that couple lifts the Mirrorball.
The board reads differently here, and the gaps against Kalshi are the interesting part.
| 💃 Couple | 🏆 Winner Chance | 💵 Yes Price | ⚖️ vs. Kalshi | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📊 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson | 32% | 32% | +16 | $212.50 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach | 30% | 30% | +4 | $233.33 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas | 24% | 24% | +6 | $316.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy | 17% | 17% | +2 | $488.24 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold | 16% | 16% | +12 | $525.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov | 13% | 13% | +2 | $669.23 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jackson Olson & Emma Slater | 8% | 8% | +5 | $1,150.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Taylor Hanson & Britt Stewart | 8% | 8% | +7 | $1,150.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa | 5% | 5% | +2 | $1,900.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Ciara Miller & Brandon Armstrong | 3% | 3% | +3 vs. under 1% | $3,233.33 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik | 3% | 3% | +3 vs. under 1% | $3,233.33 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess | 2% | 2% | +1 | $4,900.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Guillermo Rodriguez & Witney Carson | 1% | 1% | +1 vs. under 1% | $9,900.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson
Polymarket still has Shum Jr. as the outright favorite at 32%, double what Kalshi gives him. That is the single widest disagreement between the two exchanges on this season.
Traders here appear to be weighting his premiere-leading 21 and his professional dance background more heavily than his Week 2 dip to an 18.
Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach
Frech is a close second at 30%, a touch above his 26¢ Kalshi price. Both books agree he is a legitimate contender, they simply disagree on whether he has already passed Shum Jr.
Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas
Higgins is priced at 24%, six points richer than her Kalshi equivalent. Polymarket is giving more credit to a premiere-week leaderboard win and to Ballas' track record than to her mid-pack 19 on Viral Hits Night.
Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy
Dewan sits at 17%, roughly in line with Kalshi's 15%. She is the one top-five name the two exchanges price almost identically, which suggests the "professional dancer with a vote-share problem" read is shared across both trader bases.
Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold
This is the other major divergence. Polymarket has the comedian at 16%, four times his 4% Kalshi price, despite a 15 out of 30 that left him in the bottom half of the leaderboard.
Wood brings a large online following, and Polymarket's crowd has historically paid up for internet-native personalities who can mobilize a fan vote.
Where the rest of the Polymarket field stands
- Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov: The skater is at 13%, a small premium to her 11% on Kalshi after the best tango of the night.
- Jackson Olson & Emma Slater: Priced at 8%, more than double his Kalshi number despite a middling 18.
- Taylor Hanson & Britt Stewart: Also 8%, an outlier given a 15-point cha-cha and a 1% quote on Kalshi.
- Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa: At 5%, modestly ahead of Kalshi after a 16-point tango.
- Ciara Miller & Brandon Armstrong and Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik: Both at 3%, both coming off 18s that beat their premiere showings.
- Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess: Still listed at 2% after a 16 out of 30.
- Guillermo Rodriguez & Witney Carson: Down to 1% following a 12-point paso doble that tied him for last.
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How Kalshi and Polymarket Compare on DWTS Season 35
The two boards agree on the shape of the contenders: Frech, Shum Jr., Higgins and Dewan are the top four names on both, and Guillermo Rodriguez is the cheapest live contract on both after his 12.
They disagree on almost everything else. Kalshi has Frech clear at the top and Shum Jr. down at 16%, while Polymarket keeps Shum Jr. in front at 32%. Connor Wood is a 4% longshot on one exchange and a 16% dark horse on the other, and Taylor Hanson is 1% against 8%.
Two things explain most of that gap. Kalshi's numbers moved hard on Tuesday night's scores, which is what you expect from a board carrying $2.26 million in volume, while Polymarket still lists all three eliminated celebrities at 1% or 2% rather than writing them off. Polymarket's outcomes also sum well above 100%, a sign of wide quotes and slower repricing rather than a genuine edge.
For anyone shopping both books, that means Shum Jr. is meaningfully cheaper on Kalshi and Frech is marginally cheaper there too, while the cheap end of the Polymarket board looks expensive relative to the leaderboard.
DWTS Week 2 Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The defining move of the week was Frech going from an afterthought to a 26¢ favorite on Kalshi. Traders rarely shift a contract 18 points on one dance, and the fact that he did it while Shum Jr. and Higgins both faded suggests that board treated Viral Hits Night as a genuine reordering rather than noise.
Judges handed out unusually low scores across the board, with 21 out of 30 topping the leaderboard and three couples sharing it. A compressed leaderboard means the fan vote carries more weight, and Alfonso Ribeiro noted on air that Tuesday's episode set a new voting record. That dynamic favors contestants with large built-in audiences over the best technical dancers, which is part of why Polymarket is willing to pay 16% for Connor Wood.
There is no runaway favorite on either exchange. Kalshi's top five contracts account for roughly 86% of the implied probability, and the gap between Frech at 26¢ and Glenn at 11¢ is small enough that one theme night could flip the order.
Yacht Rock Night on Sept. 29 is the next repricing event. The couples clustered at 15 and 16 points are the ones most likely to be gone before the board tightens, and a single strong ballroom performance from Shum Jr. would likely close the gap between the two exchanges in a hurry.
How to Trade DWTS Week 2 on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Don't forget to use promo code ACTION55when signing up to Trade $25, Get $55!
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Don't forget to use promo code ACTIONwhen signing up to Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus!
