Maura Higgins has taken over as the favorite to win Dancing with the Stars Season 35 on both Kalshi and Polymarket, overtaking former front-runner Harry Shum Jr. after her Night 2 foxtrot. Two couples are already gone from the competition, and one of the clearest signals in this market right now is how differently the two exchanges are still pricing them.
Who's Already Gone: Premiere Week Eliminations
- Episode 1 (Sept. 15): Conner Leavitt and pro partner Adele Zaikman were the first couple eliminated, going home after the lowest combined judges' score and vote total among the eight men. A voting glitch that knocked out ABC's website voting and forced text-only ballots added extra chaos to how that first result came together.
- Episode 2 (Sept. 16): Sarah Jane Nader and partner Hailey Bills became the second couple sent home, eliminated after Nader's 14 out of 30 jive despite the judges praising her effort given her lack of prior dance experience. Guillermo Rodriguez, who had the single lowest score of the premiere at 10 out of 30 on Night 1, has now survived two rounds of voting.
DWTS Season 35 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
On Kalshi, each celebrity has a "Yes" contract tied to winning the season, priced from 1 cent to 99 cents. A 36 cent Yes price implies a 36 percent chance that couple lifts the Len Goodman Mirrorball Trophy. The contract settles at $1.00 for the winning couple and $0 for everyone else when the finale airs.
Maura Higgins
Higgins is the new Kalshi favorite by a wide margin after a 30 point overnight surge, the single largest move the market has seen all season. Her Night 2 foxtrot to "Black Velvet" drew the top score of the premiere, a 21 out of 30, and traders responded by nearly sextupling her price from the 6 percent she carried into that performance.
Harry Shum Jr.
Shum still leads the men and remains a clear second overall, but he has slipped 2 points as attention and capital rotate toward Higgins' breakout performance. His Night 1 cha cha remains the second-best score of the two-night premiere.
Jenna Dewan
Dewan is the one name in the top tier whose price hasn't moved since our last snapshot. She turned in a solid but not spectacular 19 out of 30 tango on Night 2, enough to hold her spot without adding to it.
Amber Glenn
Glenn's 18 out of 30 cha cha was respectable, but it wasn't enough to keep pace with Higgins and Dewan, and her price has been cut nearly in half as the market re-sorts the second tier.
Jackson Olson
Olson is now tied with Glenn after continuing to slide, still paying for a technique-flagged 15 out of 30 on Night 1 with nothing new to reverse the trend.
- Ezra Frech: The steepest drop on the board outside of Higgins' surge. Frech hasn't danced since Night 1's well-reviewed tango, and with no new information on him, this looks like pure capital rotation toward Higgins rather than a reaction to anything Frech did wrong.
- Connor Wood: Still hovering in the mid-single digits without much market attention either way.
- Julia Stiles: A 19 out of 30 tango was solid, but Kalshi traders have moved on to bigger stories, cutting her price by more than half.
- Ciara Miller: Her 15 out of 30 foxtrot kept her a longshot, and the market hasn't moved her either direction.
- Tyler Cameron: Continuing to fade after a middling Night 1 tango and the voting glitch that clouded that first result.
- Taylor Hanson: Still safely out of contention territory on Kalshi's board.
- Giada De Laurentiis, Guillermo Rodriguez, Tatyana Ali: All three remain alive but are priced as pure longshots, with Ali's rock-bottom price reflecting her 12 out of 30, the lowest score of Night 2.
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DWTS Season 35 Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket runs the same kind of Yes/No event contract on a winner-take-all market for the Season 35 champion. A share trading near 49 cents implies roughly a 49 percent chance of that outcome, and the contract pays out $1.00 per share if that couple wins the finale. Polymarket's own market page lists a resolution window of Nov. 17, 2026.
Maura Higgins
Higgins is the favorite here too, and by an even wider margin than on Kalshi. Her Night 2 foxtrot is the clearest example this season of a live performance directly moving both boards in the same direction.
Jenna Dewan
This is the clearest disagreement at the top of the market. Polymarket has Dewan as the clear number two, ahead of Harry Shum Jr., while Kalshi has it the other way around.
Harry Shum Jr.
Shum sits third on Polymarket despite being the clear number two on Kalshi, a genuine platform disagreement rather than just a scaling difference, since the ordering itself has flipped.
Amber Glenn
Glenn is priced far higher here than her 6 percent Kalshi line, continuing a pattern where Polymarket runs consistently hotter on the season's Olympic athlete.
Tyler Cameron
Cameron rounds out Polymarket's top five despite sitting at just 2 percent on Kalshi, one of the widest gaps on the board relative to his actual Night 1 result.
- Julia Stiles: Priced five times higher than her 4 percent Kalshi line despite a solid but unspectacular Night 2 score.
- Connor Wood: Another name running well ahead of his 4 percent Kalshi price.
- Ezra Frech: Tracks well above his newly-discounted 5 percent Kalshi price, one of the platforms' bigger current gaps.
- Giada De Laurentiis: Still a large gap versus her sub-1% Kalshi price, though smaller than it was before her Night 2 performance.
- Jackson Olson: Priced higher than his 6 percent Kalshi line but directionally consistent with it.
- Guillermo Rodriguez: A significant gap versus his sub-1% Kalshi price despite the lowest judges' score of the premiere.
- Taylor Hanson: Priced four times higher than his 2 percent Kalshi line.
- Ciara Miller: One of the few names where the two markets are genuinely close.
- Tatyana Ali: A sharp reversal from her earlier 19% price after Night 2's lowest score, and now roughly in line with her Kalshi longshot status. Unlike Nader and Leavitt, Polymarket did reprice her promptly once real results came in.
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DWTS Season 35 Price Analysis – Market Price Influencers
The premiere week is now complete, and the board has fully repriced around it. Night 1 saw Harry Shum Jr. (21/30) and Ezra Frech (20/30) post the top two scores of the men's performances, while Conner Leavitt's lowest combined score and vote total made him the season's first elimination, a result made messier by a mid-broadcast voting glitch that briefly knocked out ABC's website voting. Night 2 belonged to Maura Higgins, whose 21 out of 30 foxtrot topped Jenna Dewan and Julia Stiles (19 apiece), Amber Glenn (18), Giada De Laurentiis (16), Ciara Miller (15), Sarah Jane Nader (14) and Tatyana Ali (12). Nader's score sent her home as the second elimination of the season.
Higgins' 30 point overnight surge on Kalshi, from 6 percent to 36 percent, is by far the biggest single move the market has made all season, and it landed in almost the same place on Polymarket, where she jumped to a 49 percent lead. That kind of coordinated repricing across two separate exchanges is a strong signal the market believes her performance genuinely changed the calculus, not just short-term hype.
Not every name reacted the same way to new information. Tatyana Ali's rock-bottom Night 2 score triggered a real correction on Polymarket, from 19 percent down to 2 percent, showing the book can and does update when the news is unambiguous. Sarah Jane Nader and Conner Leavitt's contracts tell the opposite story: both are mathematically eliminated, yet neither has been meaningfully repriced on Polymarket, which points to thin trading volume on already-resolved names rather than any genuine ongoing uncertainty. With the full field now having performed at least once, the next real catalyst is Week 2, when the surviving 14 couples dance under a normal weekly format for the first time.
How to Trade DWTS Season 35 Winner Odds on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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DWTS Season 35 Winner: Final Thoughts
Maura Higgins is now the clear consensus favorite on both exchanges after the biggest single move of the season, and that is the one part of this board that looks settled. Everything below her is murkier: Kalshi and Polymarket can't even agree on whether Shum or Dewan deserves the number two spot, and Polymarket's continued non-zero pricing on two already-eliminated couples remains the clearest open inefficiency in the market. Until Polymarket's liquidity catches up, Kalshi looks like the more reliable read on this field.
DWTS Season 35 Winner FAQs
Who is favored to win Dancing with the Stars Season 35?
Maura Higgins is now the favorite on both Kalshi (36%) and Polymarket (49%) after her Night 2 foxtrot drew the top score of the premiere week and triggered the largest single price move of the season on both exchanges.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket disagree so much on some contestants?
Kalshi's DWTS markets have traded longer and absorbed more real performance data, producing a more differentiated board. Polymarket's book here is thinner, with Yes and No prices that don't sum to 100 percent, a sign of wide spreads and lower liquidity that inflates prices on many contestants relative to Kalshi.
Why are eliminated contestants still priced above zero on Polymarket?
Sarah Jane Nader and Conner Leavitt were both eliminated during the premiere week, but their Polymarket contracts were still trading at 19 percent and 8 percent respectively days later, compared to under a penny on Kalshi. That gap reflects thin trading volume on names the market has stopped actively pricing rather than any real uncertainty about their status.
Who has been eliminated from DWTS Season 35 so far?
Two couples are gone after the premiere week. Conner Leavitt and pro partner Adele Zaikman were eliminated on Night 1 (Sept. 15) after the men's performances. Sarah Jane Nader and partner Hailey Bills were eliminated on Night 2 (Sept. 16) after the women's performances, becoming the season's second couple out.
Who had the top score of the Season 35 premiere?
Harry Shum Jr. led Night 1 with a 21 out of 30 cha cha, and Maura Higgins led Night 2 with a 21 out of 30 foxtrot, the two highest scores of the two-night premiere.
How do Kalshi and Polymarket winner contracts work?
Each celebrity has a "Yes" contract that pays $1.00 if they win the season and $0 if they don't. The contract price in cents or percent reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome.
When does the Season 35 winner market resolve?
The market resolves when the Season 35 champion is crowned at the finale. Polymarket's own market page lists a resolution window of Nov. 17, 2026, which lines up with recent seasons' late-fall finale schedules.
Did Harry Shum Jr. lose his spot as the favorite?
Yes. Shum led both boards after Night 1 but was overtaken by Maura Higgins following her Night 2 foxtrot. He remains a clear second on Kalshi (23%) but has slipped to third on Polymarket (30%), behind both Higgins and Jenna Dewan.
