The Maine Senate race 2026 remains one of the tightest contests of the midterms, with Democrat Troy Jackson trying to unseat five-term Republican Senator Susan Collins.
The latest Troy Jackson vs Susan Collins polls have bounced between a narrow Jackson lead and a dead heat all fall, and prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing the Maine senate race as close to a coin flip with a slight lean toward Jackson.
With Election Day closing in on Nov. 3, both exchanges are seeing heavy volume as traders react to every new survey.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Troy Jackson | YES (57¢) | $75.44 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Susan Collins | YES (45¢) | $122.22 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Troy Jackson | YES (57¢) | $75.44 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Susan Collins | YES (45¢) | $122.22 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Maine Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Right now, you can use the Polymarket promo code ACTION, which will allow you to Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!
Maine Senate Race 2026 Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's event contracts for the Maine Senate race are priced in cents, with each cent mapping directly to the market's implied probability. A "Yes" contract on a candidate pays out $1.00 if that candidate wins the Nov. 3 election and $0 if they lose, and traders can buy or sell their position at any point before the race is called.
This market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for U.S. Senator from Maine, with the outcome sourced from official government election results.
Troy Jackson (D) (YES 57¢ / NO 44¢, -3 pts)
Jackson has slipped 3 points on Polymarket even though he's still the favorite, and that pullback lines up with a co/efficient poll released Sept. 30 that had Collins actually leading 48% to 46%.
The former Maine Senate president has led most public polling since clinching the Democratic nomination in late July, but the co/efficient survey is a reminder that this Maine Senate race in 2026 is genuinely contested, not a formality.
Susan Collins (R) (YES 45¢ / NO 56¢, +2 pts)
Collins picked up 2 points as traders digested that same co/efficient result, and her campaign has leaned hard into her seniority on the Senate Appropriations Committee to court the independents who will decide this race.
She's still priced as the underdog, but Polymarket hasn't written her off: Maine backed Collins through five straight re-election campaigns, including a 2020 race where she trailed in nearly every public poll before winning outright.
Maine Senate Race 2026 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi runs the same basic structure: event contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢, a price of 57¢ implies a 57% chance of that outcome, and the Maine senate winner market resolves by whichever party's nominee wins the general election.
Kalshi's board has been slightly more stable than Polymarket's over the past week, but the two exchanges are landing in almost the same place on both candidates.
Troy Jackson (YES 57¢ / NO 44¢, +1 pt)
Jackson actually ticked up a point on Kalshi, a small but notable divergence from his Polymarket slide, and it tracks with a recent CNN/SSRS poll that had him leading 48% to 45% among likely voters from Aug. 31 to Sept. 6.
An AARP Maine poll released Oct. 1 was even more bullish on Jackson, putting him ahead 50% to 47%, which may be feeding the modest Kalshi uptick.
Susan Collins (YES 45¢ / NO 56¢, -1 pt)
Collins dipped a point on Kalshi even as she gained on Polymarket, underscoring how split the traffic has been between exchanges this week.
Her camp is counting on the same late-breaking strength that carried her past Sara Gideon in 2020, when she trailed by 5 points in September polling and still won with 51% of the vote.
You can sign up at Kalshi using promo code ACTION2000 and you'll be able to Get up to $2000 Bonus!
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Maine Senate Race
Polymarket and Kalshi agree almost to the cent on this one. Both boards have Jackson at YES 57¢ and Collins at YES 45¢, which is a tighter alignment than you'll typically see between two independent order books on a contested Senate race.
Where they diverge is direction, not level: Jackson slid 3 points on Polymarket this week while gaining a point on Kalshi, and Collins did the reverse. That kind of split usually points to different trader bases reacting to different headlines, rather than any real disagreement about where the race stands today.
The bigger story is that both markets are pricing this Maine Senate race 2026 more decisively toward Jackson than the public polling average, which has swung from a Jackson lead as wide as 9 points (Abacus Data) to a Collins lead of 2 points (co/efficient) in the span of a single month.
Maine Senate Race 2026 Polls: Price Analysis – Market Price Influencers
The single biggest driver of this market has been Jackson's consolidation of the Democratic base after Graham Platner withdrew from the race in late July following a rape allegation. Jackson inherited Platner's progressive coalition without the scandal baggage, and both exchanges repriced him as the favorite almost immediately.
Collins' numbers have moved on a slower, steadier track tied to her record on tariffs. CNN polling found roughly 7 in 10 likely Maine voters view Trump's tariffs on Canadian goods unfavorably, and Jackson has spent weeks tying Collins to that policy even as she's publicly pushed back against it.
The overall shape is a genuine toss-up with a market-wide lean toward Jackson: neither contract is trading as a runaway favorite, and a single late-breaking poll or debate moment could realistically flip the board before Nov. 3.
Watch for Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball updates in the final weeks; both outlets still rate the Maine Senate race a toss-up, with Sabato's "best guess" leaning Collins even as the market leans Jackson.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Troy Jackson | YES (57¢) | $75.44 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Susan Collins | YES (45¢) | $122.22 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Troy Jackson | YES (57¢) | $75.44 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Susan Collins | YES (45¢) | $122.22 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Maine Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Maine Senate Race 2026: Final Thoughts
This is a race where the markets and the polls are telling slightly different stories, with Polymarket and Kalshi both leaning Jackson while the public polling average remains a true coin flip.
Collins' five straight Senate wins make her a hard favorite to count out entirely, but both exchanges agree Jackson enters the final stretch with a real, if modest, structural edge.
Watch the next wave of Maine Senate race 2026 polls closely: another co/efficient-style outlier or a fresh CNN survey could easily move both boards before Nov. 3.
Maine Senate Race 2026 FAQs
What do the latest Maine Senate race 2026 polls say in the Troy Jackson vs Susan Collins polls matchup?
Most public polling since late July has shown Troy Jackson with a narrow lead over Susan Collins, typically 2 to 4 points, though a late-September co/efficient poll had Collins ahead 48% to 46%. Polymarket and Kalshi both currently price Jackson as the favorite at 57¢.
When does the Maine Senate winner market resolve?
Both markets close by the end of Election Day, Nov. 3, 2026, and resolve once the winner is officially determined by state election authorities, including any recount or runoff procedures.
How do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Maine Senate race?
Each contract trades between 1¢ and 99¢, with the price reflecting the market's implied probability of that candidate winning. A winning "Yes" contract redeems at $1.00, while a losing one pays $0.
Why is Susan Collins trading as the underdog despite being the incumbent?
Collins is navigating a tough national environment for Republicans and voter frustration over tariffs, but her history of outperforming her polling, including a come-from-behind win in 2020, keeps her price from collapsing further.
Can I trade the Maine Senate race on both platforms at once?
Yes. Nothing stops you from holding positions on both Polymarket and Kalshi simultaneously, and some traders do exactly that to capture small pricing gaps between the two exchanges.
What should I watch for before Nov. 3?
Keep an eye on new polling from CNN, Fox News, and Cook Political Report, along with any shift in the tariff debate, since those have been the clearest drivers of price movement on both boards so far.
