NLDS Game 3 brings two very different stakes to the table tonight, and the home run props across both matchups reflect it.
The Brewers can close out their series and punch a ticket to the NLCS with a win over the Padres behind Dustin May, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Chris Sale face off in a true pivot-point Game 3 with the Dodgers and Braves tied at 1-1.
Here is a full breakdown of the best home run bets today, built around six Polymarket tickets worth trading across tonight's NLDS slate.
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| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAD vs ATL (6:00 PM ET) | Shohei Ohtani | HR Yes (19¢) | $498.26 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| LAD vs ATL (6:00 PM ET) | Ronald Acuña Jr. | HR Yes (15¢) | $629.46 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| LAD vs ATL (6:00 PM ET) | Kyle Tucker | HR Yes (11¢) | $837.91 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| MIL vs SD (9:30 PM ET) | Jackson Chourio | HR Yes (19¢) | $498.26 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| MIL vs SD (9:30 PM ET) | Fernando Tatis Jr. | HR Yes (18¢) | $525.61 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| MIL vs SD (9:30 PM ET) | Christian Yelich | HR Yes (10¢) | $857.54 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Our Top Polymarket Picks for the NLDS
Every pick below is a real trade we'd make after redeeming the Polymarket promo codeACTION, part of our best MLB home run predictions today.
These MLB odds move fast once lineups are official, so we're building this around the numbers as they stand right now.
Dodgers vs Braves Prediction
Atlanta and Los Angeles split the first two games of this series, and Game 3 odds put the pressure squarely on both lineups, with neither club able to afford a 1-2 hole.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto takes the ball for the Dodgers against Chris Sale, giving this game a true ace-versus-ace framing that should keep both offenses working for every run.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Shohei Ohtani
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAD vs ATL (6:00 PM ET) | Shohei Ohtani | HR Yes (19¢) | $498.26 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Ohtani sits at the top of this entire slate's implied probability, and with the series tied, the Dodgers need their best player to be exactly that against a Braves lineup that will go only as far as Sale can carry it.
He's as complete a power threat as exists in the sport, and even a veteran lefty like Sale doesn't have much margin for a mistake over the plate in a game this tight.
On the ticket itself, a $100 buy at a 19¢ average price works out to roughly 598 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Ohtani homers: this ticket nets a profit of $498.26.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Just under a 6-to-1 payout multiple here, and it's the shortest price on the board tonight without overstating how unpredictable a single home run swing can be.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Ronald Acuña Jr.
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAD vs ATL (6:00 PM ET) | Ronald Acuña Jr. | HR Yes (15¢) | $629.46 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Acuña is Atlanta's clearest source of top-of-the-order thunder, and against a Dodgers staff fronted by Yamamoto, the Braves will need exactly this kind of swing to keep pace.
A $100 buy at a 15¢ average price gets you roughly 629 shares on this ticket.
- If Acuña goes deep: this ticket nets a profit of $629.46.
- If not: the $100 stake is gone entirely.
A little better than 6-to-1 on the payout multiple, right in the middle of tonight's board.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Kyle Tucker
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAD vs ATL (6:00 PM ET) | Kyle Tucker | HR Yes (11¢) | $837.91 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Tucker rounds out the Dodgers' side of this market as the longer-shot flip to Ohtani, priced at just 11% as Los Angeles tries to grab a 2-1 series edge behind Yamamoto.
A $100 buy at an 11¢ average price comes out to about 938 shares.
- If Tucker connects: this ticket nets a profit of $837.91.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
Nearly 9.4-to-1 on the payout, this is the deepest longshot in the Dodgers-Braves game, built for a trader chasing max leverage on a single swing.
Brewers vs Padres Prediction
Milwaukee heads into Game 3 up 2-0 in this series, meaning a win tonight behind Dustin May closes it out and sends the Brewers to the NLCS.
San Diego hands the ball to Nick Pivetta with its season on the line, raising the stakes on every Padres at-bat as the lineup tries to force this series back to Milwaukee.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Jackson Chourio
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIL vs SD (9:30 PM ET) | Jackson Chourio | HR Yes (19¢) | $498.26 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Chourio has been the engine of this Brewers lineup all October, and against Pivetta with Milwaukee one win from the NLCS, he's exactly the kind of bat a club wants up in a series-clinching spot.
A $100 buy at a 19¢ average price is roughly 598 shares on this ticket, each worth $1 on a Yes resolution.
- If Chourio homers: this ticket nets a profit of $498.26.
- If not: the $100 stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Just under 6-to-1 on the payout multiple, and the shortest price on tonight's Brewers-Padres board.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Fernando Tatis Jr.
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIL vs SD (9:30 PM ET) | Fernando Tatis Jr. | HR Yes (18¢) | $525.61 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Tatis is San Diego's best answer if the Padres are going to keep their season alive, and a club facing elimination behind Pivetta tends to lean hardest on its most dangerous bat.
A $100 buy at an 18¢ average price works out to roughly 626 shares on this ticket.
- If Tatis connects: this ticket nets a profit of $525.61.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
Right around 6.3-to-1 on the payout, and the clearest Padres counter on this board.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Christian Yelich
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIL vs SD (9:30 PM ET) | Christian Yelich | HR Yes (10¢) | $857.54 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Yelich rounds out the Brewers' side of this market as the longest shot of the night, priced at just 10% in a lineup that doesn't need to lean on him to close out this series.
A $100 buy at a 10¢ average price works out to roughly 958 shares on this ticket.
- If Yelich goes deep: this ticket nets a profit of $857.54.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
Nearly 9.6-to-1 on the payout multiple, the single deepest longshot across tonight's entire NLDS slate.
Beyond these six home run tickets, every other NLDS Game 3 market is live on Polymarket right now, from moneylines to full prop boards for each series, so it's worth scanning the full slate before first pitch.
Today's MLB Odds: What's Moving the Home Run Market
Prediction markets and prices move for many reasons, and elimination-game stakes are one of the biggest tonight. Shohei Ohtani and Jackson Chourio share the board's shortest price at 19% apiece, each the clear top bat in a lineup that needs to deliver tonight.
On the other end, Christian Yelich at 10% is the longest price on the slate, reflecting a Brewers lineup that doesn't need to force the issue with a 2-0 series lead already in hand.
Across the board, these MLB home run predictions today line up with each team's stakes tonight: Atlanta and Los Angeles both need their stars to show up behind an ace-versus-ace pitching matchup in a tied series, while San Diego's lineup is pressing against Pivetta with its season on the line, and Milwaukee can close things out behind May. Check our full MLB coverage for every other series in play right now.
Use Polymarket Promo Code 'ACTION' to Trade MLB Home Runs
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- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
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MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Final Thoughts
Two very different kinds of pressure define tonight's NLDS slate: an ace-on-ace tied series in Los Angeles between Yamamoto and Sale that could tilt decisively in either direction, and a potential clincher in Milwaukee where May and the Brewers can send San Diego home.
Ohtani and Chourio sit at the top of the board as the two shortest prices, each the engine of a lineup that needs offense tonight for very different reasons, while Tucker and Yelich offer the deepest leverage for traders chasing a bigger multiple. For more on how these markets work, Action Network's beginner's guide to Polymarket is a good starting point, and the full prediction markets hub covers every other sport in season right now.
Polymarket Promo Code FAQs
What is the Polymarket promo code for today's MLB home run props?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION. New users who sign up with it can deposit $10 and get a $25 trading bonus to use on tonight's NLDS Game 3 markets.
What are today's best MLB Odds for NLDS home runs?
Shohei Ohtani and Jackson Chourio headline the MLB home run predictions today, both tied for the board's shortest price at 19%. Christian Yelich, at 10%, carries the longest odds of the slate.
Who is favored to hit a home run tonight?
Ohtani in the Dodgers-Braves game and Chourio in the Brewers-Padres game are both priced at 19%, the shortest implied probability of any player covered here.
What is the best home run prop today?
Our top plays are Ohtani and Chourio, the two shortest-priced tickets on the board tonight.
Who are tonight's starting pitchers?
Yoshinobu Yamamoto starts for the Dodgers against Chris Sale for the Braves, while Dustin May takes the mound for the Brewers against Nick Pivetta for the Padres.
What's at stake in tonight's NLDS Game 3 matchups?
The Dodgers and Braves are tied 1-1 in their series, making this a pivotal Game 3, while the Brewers can close out their series with a win and advance to the NLCS.
How do Polymarket home run contracts work?
Each contract resolves Yes if the named player hits at least one home run in that specific game, and No if they don't. Shares bought at a given price pay out $1 each if the contract resolves in your favor, and nothing if it doesn't.
When do today's home run markets resolve?
Each contract resolves once its specific game is final, based on official MLB box score data for that matchup.
Are there more MLB prediction markets to trade today?
Yes. Beyond these home run props, Polymarket has moneyline and additional prop markets live for both NLDS Game 3 matchups, plus markets across other sports, so these MLB odds are just one slice of what's tradeable right now.
