After nearly two months of treacherous chaos, it all comes down to tonight: The Traitors Season 4 Finale.
From the dramatic Mama Kelce twist to the fall of the housewives' alliance, season 4 has not disappointed, setting up for what should be one of the most dramatic Fire of Truth ceremonies yet.
According to the current market on Kalshi, Rob Rausch remains the overwhelming favorite.
Will Alabama's favorite snake charmer come out on top? Many fans making predictions on The Traitors Season 4 Finale using the Kalshi app seem to think so, as Rob's chances of winning have consistently remained much higher than any other contestant. In fact, they've now eclipsed 90%.
What's more, The Traitors Season 4 has steadily been one of the hottest reality TV prediction markets since its January 8th premiere, surpassing $3 million in cumulative trading volume.
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The Traitors Season 4 Winner: Live Odds On Kalshi
Want a brief breakdown of who has the best chance to take home the $250,000 prize money? Refer to the table below for a snapshot of The Traitors Season 4 live Kalshi odds.
Note: Like many prediction markets apps, Kalshi verifies the official results through legitimate sources. In this case, The Traitors Season 4 winner will be confirmed by Peacock.
The Unanimous Favorite: Rob Rausch (Traitor)
From sacrificing a pair of housewives in fellow traitors Candiace Dillard Bassett and Lisa Ranna to saving himself using his dagger advantage, Rob Rausch has been playing the game like a fiddle.
Overall, there's plenty of evidence supporting both his popularity and his likelihood to win it all despite being a Traitor. Especially with fellow Love Island alum Maura Higgins seemingly in his back pocket.
Rausch may be heavily favored, but the rest of the contestants haven't been murdered just yet. In fact, the Faithfuls still outnumber the Traitors 4-2 (for now), and there are even some scenarios where more than one player can win. Rausch finally started to show cracks in his armor during episode 10, and Johnny Weir stated that he's onto both Rob and Eric.
As such, Rausch's dominance could very well come to an end if Weir survives and can convince the other Faithfuls to buy into his theory, or Higgins survives and flips loyalties.
What To Expect From The Traitors Season 4 Finale
Heading into The Traitors Season 4 Finale, there are a couple of different ways that things can unfold. We were originally going to ask Michael to weigh in, but then realized no one has time for that, so allow US to break it all down instead!
To set the scene, the end of episode 10 ended with a serious cliffhanger. The remaining six contestants were called to the front lawn in the middle of the night, with one of them set to be eliminated right then and there. While we won't know who it is until the finale, many believe it's either Johnny Weir or Tara Lipinski, as Rob and Eric discussed a strategic split of the figure skating duo.
Regardless of who it ends up being, five contestants will remain. History tells us that one more will be eliminated, since the Ring of Fire typically has four players, but that isn't guaranteed. Once the Ring of Fire begins, each player left is given two pouches: Green and Red.
Contestants each toss a pouch into the fire to vote, with green meaning 'end the game' and red meaning 'banish' again. If every player votes green, the game ends, and identities are revealed, but it only takes one red pouch to enact a banish ceremony instead. If a red pouch is cast, a player is banished, and the process repeats until there's a unanimous green vote or just two remaining players.
What Are All The Possible Outcomes For The Traitors' Season 4 Finale Winner?
The Traitors can either be won by the Traitors or the Faithfuls. If the group manages to ban all the Traitors, the remaining Faithfuls split the prize money equally. If any Traitor is still standing once the game ends, they take the entire pot and send any remaining Faithfuls home with nothing.
If both Traitors are in once the game ends, they split the prize money. Will a Traitor actually win The Traitors US for the first time since season 1? Will Rob or Eric move to cut the other out in hopes of taking home the entire $250,000 for themselves? We look forward to seeing what happens as much as you do.
Best of luck, and continue below to learn more about how Kalshi works if you're new to prediction markets.
What Is Kalshi?
Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather. Unlike traditional sportsbooks that are only available in a handful of states, Kalshi is available across most of the US.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment. Like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
