Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
Here are my two favorite NFL interception props for Week 9.
NFL Interception Props for Week 9
- Justin Herbert to Throw an Interception (+135, FanDuel)
- Patrick Mahomes to Throw an Interception (+130, DraftKings)
Justin Herbert to Throw an Interception (+135)
I’ll start this one by saying this isn’t an interception bet based on the Titans defense. They’ve been a tough sell these days with only four interceptions forced this year; they have also allowed the second-highest completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks.
Still, this price for Chargers QB Justin Herbert to throw an interception is showing value for me and I’ll take my chances.
Herbert was nearly turnover free last season, when he only threw three interceptions all season but that was when his offensive line was intact. LT Joe Alt was dealing with an ankle injury and LG Mekhi Becton has been on the injury report for weeks.
As a result, Herbert has had to throw a bit more off schedule and while he’s made some spectacular throws, he’s still had some turnovers with seven interceptions in the last six games.
Now, the Chargers are going to Tennessee where there’s some weather expected with rainy conditions that could make the ball a bit slippery for some potential turnovers.
Patrick Mahomes to Throw an Interception (+130)
Betting on arguably the best quarterback in the NFL to throw an interception isn’t something I’d recommend on a regular basis, but when it comes to Chiefs vs Bills, Patrick Mahomes is in play to throw an interception.
This is the fifth year in a row Mahomes is playing the Bills during the regular season and I’m betting that he will throw another pick for the fifth year in a row.
Mahomes has a four-game regular-season streak vs the Bills where he’s turned the ball over, with a combined six interceptions over those four games. He’s also coming off a two-interception game vs the Commanders, where I could argue neither was his fault, but they still count because it either bounced off Travis Kelce’s hands or WR Xavier Worthy ran the wrong route.
The Bills defense hasn’t been as ferocious this year when defending the pass as they’ve only gotten three interceptions this season — but they are at least getting pressure on the quarterback as they rank fourth in pressure rate per dropback, which should lead to Mahomes having to make quick throws or scramble out of the pocket.
Another reason why I like Mahomes in this spot is he has five turnover-worthy-plays against pressure this season but only one interception. I expect regression on that front.
If Mahomes breaks the streak and plays a clean game, we can live with that. But if his interception is +130 against a team he’s notoriously had trouble with, I’m going to bet it till it fails.
