Welcome to Year 6 of the 17-game schedule in the NFL! Four years ago, I did a study on double-digit win totals in the NFL. Now, we have a larger sample size — but a lot of the same results.
Since 1990, there have been about 5.9 teams with double-digit win totals per season. Since the NFL implemented a 17-game schedule, here is the total number of 10+ win totals per season:
• 2026: 10
• 2025: 7
• 2024: 10
• 2023: 7
• 2022: 12
• 2021: 8
This season, here are the 10 teams listed with a double-digit win total as of publishing:
For any bettor considering taking the over on any of these win totals, there's a cautionary tale about the history of doing so.
Here's what my study of the 212 NFL teams to have a double-digit win total during the Wild-Card era (since 1990) revealed.
The History of Double-Digit NFL Win Totals
It's proven extremely difficult for a team to exceed expectations when its win total has been set so high.
Since 1990, only 86 of the 212 teams with double-digit win totals over the past 36 years have exceeded their number. The most alarming aspect of that 42.6% is the fact that those teams have gone under their win total by close to 0.61 wins per season.
Finding Value on Double-Digit NFL Win Totals
Oddsmakers know what they are doing. When setting win totals in the preseason, there is a difference between "expectations" and "great expectations."
There have been 69 teams with a win total of 11 or more since 1990, which averages out to about 1.9 teams per season. Those 69 teams are 31-35-3 to the over in that span.
Drilling it down a bit further, between 1990-1999, overs were 12-8-1 in this spot and they are 19-27-2 to the over since 2000, including 4-12 to the over since the 17-game schedule was implemented in 2021. That has only recently seen a steep dropoff, where it was closer to .500 in previous seasons.
The advantage has always come with teams valued at the 10 and 10.5 mark. The 143 teams with such win totals are 81-55-7 (59.6%) to the under, going under the win total by almost three-quarters of a win (-0.74).
The 17-Game Schedule Impact
Speaking of the 2021 schedule change to 17 games, let's do a small deep dive on the 5-year history.
To fully understand the impact of adding an extra game to the schedule and how that impacts win totals, let's look at the results of the last few years for all 32 teams.
Total Market Wins
Between 2018 and 2020, with a 16-game schedule, the average total wins in the preseason market was 260.8 (with it being its highest in 2020 at 262.5) — the sport itself had 256 regular-season games.
In 2021, if you added up every preseason win total, the total wins in the market equaled 277 — the sport itself had 272 regular-season games.
In 2022, that fell to 272.5. In 2023, it was 273, then it bottomed out in 2024 at 270.5.
The last two seasons though, we're back to the year of legalization in 2021, with 276 in 2025 and now 277 in 2026.
How to Bet the Outliers
With the extra game on the schedule, one interesting trend since 2021 we will be tracking moving forward is how outlier win totals perform.
The Good Teams
Let's start with just the double-digit win totals.
Since 2021, they are 19-25 to the over, with each team going under their win total by an average of 0.38 wins/team per season. If you compare that to recent history, one trend you'll find is the margins starting to tighten:
One thing to look at when dissecting these double-digit win totals is the consistency of expectations. Let's look at the Eagles, Bills, 49ers, Ravens and Chiefs. For all of those teams, this will be their fifth or more consecutive season they've had a double-digit win total.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Seahawks, Rams and Chargers are starting a new streak this year, not having a double-digit win total last year.
Here is some data on how teams have performed on their win total based on how many consecutive years they've had a win total of 10 or more:
Newcomer
The other angle worth looking for when it comes to the "good teams" and the top of the league is first-time teams with high win totals. In the 17-game era, we've only had three teams with a win total of 11 or more, coming off a season in which they had a win total of less than 10: 2023 Bengals, 2021 Bills, 2021 Buccaneers.
The Bucs had a win total of 12 and won 13 games, while both the Bills and Bengals went under by two-plus games. This year, that is the Rams after having a win total of 9.5 last year and now an 11.5 this season.
Champs to Chumps?
Our final lesson is the Lions. In 2024, Detroit won 15 games with a win total of 10.5, going over its win total by 4.5. Then in 2025, the Lions had a win total of 10.5.
Detroit was the 11th team in the last decade to have a double-digit win total the year after eclipsing its total by 4+ wins. Detroit won nine games, finished last in the NFC North, went under and missed the playoffs.
Those 11 teams are 2-9 to their win total over the following season — in 2026, that team is the Seahawks after winning 14 games with a 8.5 win total last year.
The Bad Teams
Let's take a second now and look at the worst of the worst.
Since 1990, 29 teams have had a win total of under five — those teams are 16-11-2 to the over, going over their respective win totals by 0.76 wins per team. Last year, the Saints and Browns closed at 4.5 and both went over.
In 2026, the Cardinals and Dolphins both sit with win totals under five. Since moving to a 17-game schedule, these low win totals are about even at 3-4-1 to the over.
The Top of the Class
Since 1990, no team has had more double-digit win total seasons than the 49ers (20), with the Packers right behind them with 18. This is all data entering 2026, since things can change before September.
Both the 49ers and Patriots are tied with 10 seasons of a double-digit win total over in this span — no other franchise has more than seven.
Maybe the more impressive feat, the Patriots are also second in win percentage for overs in double-digit win total seasons since 1990, going 10-5-2.
If you are matching double-digit win totals with Conference Championship appearances to give a gauge of performance expectations, here are the worst teams in the NFL. Teams with expectations and no substance.
Since 1990, 23 NFL teams have had at least three double-digit win total seasons. Only one has had one or fewer Conference Championship appearances — the Dolphins.
Only one other team has two or fewer Conference Championship appearances of those 23 teams — the Chargers.
The Chargers probably take the cake. Of the 14 teams with more than five seasons with a double-digit win total since 1990, the Bolts' one Super Bowl appearance is the fewest and they join only the Bills of those 14 teams without a Super Bowl title to show for it during that span.
When looking at which of the 212 teams with a double-digit win total over the past three-plus decades exceeded expectations the most, you have to point to the obvious: the 2007 Patriots. They went 16-0 in the regular season to go over their win total by 4.5 games. There's also the Lions from 2024, going over their win total of 10.5 with 15 wins. These are the largest margins since 1990.
Only four teams have exceeded their win total by four wins or more: 2024 Lions, 2022 Eagles, 2009 Colts and 2007 Patriots.
The Bottom Of The Class
Entering the 2023 season, only two franchises had yet to enter a season with a double-digit win total in the Wild Card era — the Bengals and Lions.
In 2023, Cincinnati closed with a win total of 11, breaking that streak. It finished with nine wins after Joe Burrow only started 10 games. In 2024, Detroit closed with a win total of 10.5 and won 15 games.
With the Bengals and Lions tacking on big win totals, the Bears and Cardinals are now at the bottom of the totem pole with just one season with a win total of 10 or more since 1990.
When it comes to the worst single-season, there's really only one team that's earned the scarlet letter — the 2013 Texans.
The Texans won 12 games in 2012 for the first time in franchise history, also making the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time — things were looking up in Houston.
Houston won its first two games in 2013 against the Chargers and Titans … then the wheels came off.
The Texans lost out, becoming the first team in NFL history to start 2-0 and lose 14 consecutive games within the same season. They finished eight games below their win total — the largest margin in the Wild-Card era.
In 2025, the Chiefs got close. They entered the year with a win total of 11.5 and won six games.
