We are just a measly 123 days away from Sunday NFL football and 119 days away from a Super Bowl LX rematch between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots kicking the season off on Wednesday Night Football at Lumen Field — a day early to accommodate the Thursday night game in Australia between the 49ers and Rams.
Let's dive into a few notes, stats, and trends to get hyped for the upcoming 2026 NFL season.
2026 NFL Schedule Release Primer
Top 5 Time | Trigger List | Trends | Opponent SOS |
Strength of Schedule
We're going to start with the schedule itself. Let's go over some superlatives with the schedule and look at some top-5 and bottom-5 lists.
Let's start with win totals by looking at the hardest and easiest full-season schedules. The search graph below shows all 32 teams broken down by a few season segments.
Top-5/Bottom-5:
| Win Total SOS – Hardest | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1. Arizona Cardinals | 9.32 | |||||
 2. Miami Dolphins | 9.09 | |||||
 3. Dallas Cowboys | 8.97 | |||||
 4. Carolina Panthers | 8.97 | |||||
 5. Los Angeles Rams | 8.85 | |||||
| Win Total SOS – Easiest | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1. Detroit Lions | 7.97 | |||||
 2. New Orleans Saints | 8.09 | |||||
 3. Cincinnati Bengals | 8.21 | |||||
 4. New York Jets | 8.32 | |||||
 5. Cleveland Browns | 8.32 | |||||
All 32 Teams:
SOS by Rest
Now, we are looking at strength of schedule based on simply the teams' rest advantage entering each matchup compared to their opponent.
For example, in Week 2, the Rams face the Giants on Monday Night Football. The Rams are coming off a Thursday Night Football game the week before, while the Giants played on a normal Sunday. The Rams score a +3 for this game, while the Giants score a -3.
Below, a positive rest differential is good, while a negative one is bad.
Top-5/Bottom-5:
| Positive Rest Differential | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. Los Angeles Rams | +8 | |||||
 2. Chicago Bears | +8 | |||||
 3. Buffalo Bills | +7 | |||||
 4. Philadelphia Eagles | +6 | |||||
 5. Green Bay Packers | +5 | |||||
| Negative Rest Differential | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. Miami Dolphins | -13 | |||||
 2. Kansas City Chiefs | -9 | |||||
3. New Orleans Saints | -7 | |||||
4. Arizona Cardinals | -6 | |||||
 5. Pittsburgh Steelers | -6 | |||||
All 32 Teams:
The Trigger List
The goal of this section is simple: identify teams who have the most and least total schedule triggers. What is a schedule trigger? Glad you asked.
Positive schedule triggers (6):
A — Games with a 3+ day rest advantage — Your team had at least 3 more days off than the opponent before kickoff.
B — Games with a 3+ time zone advantage — Opponent traveled 3+ more time zones to the game while you stayed closer to home.
C — Games going from outdoors to a dome — Your team played outside last week and is now in a controlled indoor environment.
D — Games played on a 3rd straight home game — Third consecutive home game without a road trip in between (bye weeks reset the count).
E — Games where a cold-weather team hosts a warm-climate or dome team — From mid-November on.
F — Games where the opponent is coming off an international game without a bye.
Negative schedule triggers (8):
Inverse of A, B, C, D, F
Games coming off two consecutive division opponents.
Games where a warm-climate or dome team travels to a cold venue — from mid-November on.
Games where the visiting team plays at Denver.
For the 2026 NFL schedule, here are the teams with highest/lowest positive and negative triggers:
Across 2,700+ team-games, the trigger framework has identified some repeatable edges over the last five years:
• Cold-weather teams hosting warm or dome opponents after Nov 15 cover 61.9% ATS (60-37-2 over 99 games), while the visiting side covers just 38.1%.
• Visitors at Denver cover only 31.0% — the largest fade in the dataset.
• Teams with 3+ days of rest advantage cover 55.7% across 293 fires, the most reliable high-volume edge.
• Back-to-back division games signal a letdown — the next game covers just 40.9% (134 fires). When both frameworks agree on a positive spot, teams cover 61.4% ATS.
Early Test
We haven't had a double-digit favorite in Week 1 since Eagles vs. Commanders in 2019. The closest right now are the Chargers (-10.5 vs. Cardinals) and Jaguars (-7.5 vs. Browns).
The six-year run without a double-digit favorite in Week 1 is the longest such streak since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger. If it does get there, double-digit favorites in Week 1 are 25-5 SU in the Wild Card era, with the biggest upset going to the Texans against the Dolphins as 14-point underdogs in 2003.
Intercontinental Breakfast
The International Series is out:
🇦🇺 Week 1: 49ers vs. Rams, Sept. 10 (Melbourne Cricket Ground, MCG)
🇧🇷 Week 3: Ravens vs. Cowboys, Sept. 27 (Maracana Stadium)
🇬🇧 Week 4: Colts vs. Commanders, Oct. 4 (Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)
🇬🇧 Week 5: Eagles vs. Jaguars, Oct. 11 (Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)
🇬🇧 Week 6: Texans vs. Jaguars, Oct. 18 (Wembley Stadium)
🇫🇷 Week 7: Steelers vs. Saints, Oct. 25 (Stade de France)
🇪🇸 Week 9: Bengals vs. Falcons, Nov. 8 (Santiago Bernabeu Stadium)
🇩🇪 Week 10: Patriots vs. Lions, Nov. 15 (Allianz Arena)
🇲🇽 Week 11: Vikings vs. 49ers, Nov. 22 (Estadio Azteca)
Let's look at a few facts and trends from the 56 total international games:
The under has a small edge at 30-26. Here's a breakdown by stadium:
- Wembley: 15-12 to the under
- Allianz: 2-0 to the under
- Deutsch Bank Park: 2-0 to the under
- Estadio Azteca: 3-2 to the under
- Twickenham: 2-1 to the under
- Santiago Bernabeu: 1-0 to the under
- Tottenham: 7-5 to the over
- Corinthians: 2-0 to the over
- Olympic Stadium Berlin: 1-0 to the over
- Croke Park: 1-0 to the over
Favorites have excelled in international games. They are 41-14-1 SU and 35-21 ATS. Favorites at Wembley Stadium are 20-6-1 SU and 17-10 ATS, which is the best of any International Series stadium.
Bigger public sides have actually had success in overseas matchups.
- 60%+: 23-19 ATS
- 66%+: 16-10 ATS
- 70%+: 9-3 ATS
Favorites of a field goal or more overseas are 30-9-1 SU and 24-16 ATS.
Holiday Lineup
We have the holiday NFL schedule as well:
🍻 Thanksgiving Eve (Nov. 25): Packers at Rams, Wednesday
🦃 Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 26): Bears at Lions, Thursday
🦃 Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 26): Eagles at Cowboys, Thursday
🦃 Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 26): Chiefs at Bills, Thursday
🛍️ Black Friday (Nov. 27): Broncos at Steelers, Friday
🎅🏻 Christmas Eve (Dec. 24): Texans at Eagles, Thursday
🎄 Christmas Day (Dec. 25): Packers at Bears, Friday
🎄 Christmas Day (Dec. 25): Bills at Broncos, Friday
🎄 Christmas Day (Dec. 25): Rams at Seahawks, Friday
🥂 New Year's Eve (Dec. 31): Ravens at Bengals, Thursday
NFC West Down Under
Our first International game is 49ers-Rams right off the bat from Australia on Thursday, 2nd game in, to open the regular season. A few nuggets to wet the appetite.
Sean McVay has coached three total International Series games as a head coach. He is 3-0 SU and ATS, covering the spread by 19 PPG, beating the Jaguars, Bengals and Cardinals. McVay is the lone head coach to be 3-0 ATS or better in International games since it's start in 2005.
Both head coaches also perform pretty well with time to prepare — which this is being a Week 1 matchup. Sean McVay is 6-3 SU during the season on 14+ days prep and 7-2 SU in Week 1, 13-5 SU overall. Kyle Shanahan is 6-4 SU during the season on 14+ days prep and 5-4 SU in Week 1, 11-8 SU overall.
The Dirty South
When looking for non-division schedule spots, look no further than the NFC South, who has lost a $100 bettor $4,724 since 2021. The division is under .500 ATS vs. teams outside the NFC South in five straight seasons, going 93-132-2 ATS (41.3%), by far the worst mark in the NFL.
Dancin' in September
Some coaches, QBs and teams are tough to beat early in the season.
Andy Reid is 52-25 SU in September since 2003, including 24-6 SU since 2017-18. His 52-25 record has profited a $100 moneyline bettor $1,142 — the most of any coach in the Bet Labs database. From a QB perspective, Josh Allen has been great early. He is not only 20-7 SU, but the most profitable on the moneyline at +$1,124 and he's 9-1 SU in his last ten September games.
From an ATS perspective, Dan Campbell, Matt LaFleur, and Jim Harbaugh have some good history early in the season:
• Campbell is 14-4 ATS in September, going above .500 ATS in all five seasons.
• LaFleur is 17-8 ATS in September, but he is 8-3 ATS on the road and 9-3 ATS at home (0-2 ATS in neutral site games).
• Jim Harbaugh is 14-7-2 ATS in September, going .500 ATS or better in each of his six seasons as a coach in the NFL.
Who are the QBs tough to beat early in the season, when those QBs are listed as a favorite and supposed to win? In Bet Labs dating back to 2003, the leader in the clubhouse is Peyton Manning at 30-3 SU, but among active QBs these are the ones that stand out:
- Jared Goff is 17-4 SU as a favorite in September. He's won 4 in a row and is 7-1 SU in his last 8 in that spot.
- The others looks are Jalen Hurts, who is 11-2 SU as a favorite in September, and Josh Allen, who is 16-3 SU.
Dak vs. Dart
Our first Sunday Night Football game of the season will be the Cowboys visiting the Giants in Week 1. In both of their franchises history, this will be the 13th Week 1 meeting — Dallas is 11-1 SU in those games, going 8-0 SU in those games when played in primetime at night.
Dak Prescott has excelled in his career against NFC East foes. He is 37-10 SU and 32-15 ATS vs. the NFC East, covering the spread by over 6 PPG. In the last 20 years, here are the most profitable QBs ATS vs. Division foes.
MNF Opener
Broncos and Chiefs open the season on Monday Night Football — and if Patrick Mahomes can go, it will be his 9th opener. In the previous eight openers, the over is 7-1 in Chiefs games, going over the total by 5.6 PPG.
With a total of around 42 or 43, it would also be the lowest over/under for Mahomes in an opener, with the previous low 46 in 2024. With a total below 50, he is 4-0 to the over in openers.
A Big Leap
In 2022, 2023 and 2025, we saw three different teams move from 150-1 or higher in odds to 20-1 or shorter year-to-year — 2025 Commanders, 2023 Jets and 2022 Bengals.
In 2026, we don't have a team with that big a jump, but here are the biggest:
Early Balance
In Joe Burrow’s NFL career, he is 51-32-1 ATS (61.4%), but Burrow has had his ATS struggles early in the season, even last year after winning both games outright but finishing 1-1 ATS. He’s 4-8 ATS in his first two games of the year, and 47-24-1 ATS in game three or later. Cincinnati has lost four consecutive openers ATS entering this year.
The Bengals open at home vs. the Bucs. Burrow has yet to go 2-0 ATS in the first two games of the year in any of his six seasons. His 4-8 ATS mark is tied with Patrick Mahomes for the 2nd-worst mark of 68 QBs since Burrow was drafted.
Maybe the real conversation though should be who is last on that list: CJ Stroud, who is 0-6 ATS in the first two games of the regular season. For Stroud it hasn't been the decision making, with 6 TD passes and 1 INT in those six games, but Houston has averaged just 17.5 PPG. The Texans open their season at home vs. Bills.
Turn Around
The Patriots are coming off a Super Bowl loss and now open up against the Seahawks in Seattle in the opener on Wednesday night..
Since 2000, the loser of the Super Bowl has had a tough time getting over its hangover in Week 1 of the following season. Super Bowl losers are 11-15 SU, 6-20 ATS.
Here is the breakdown for the Super Bowl hangover by location in Week 1…
• Home: 6-4 SU, 3-7 ATS
• Road/Neutral: 5-11 SU, 3-13 ATS
The Longshots
Only 12 teams at +1000 or higher have won their division title since 2002 (division realignment). Since 2020, we've seen it happen three times: 2023 Texans (+1100), 2021 Bengals (+2500), and 2020 Washington (+2200).
Here are this seasons biggest division longshots ⤵️
Can You Hear The Drums, Fernando?
The Raiders open the regular season against the Dolphins at home.
Since the merger in 1970, there have been 28 No. 1 pick quarterbacks. In their first start, they are 5-23-1 SU and 9-20 ATS. Caleb Williams broke the drought of quarterbacks winning two years ago, with the last one before Caleb being David Carr in 2002. Whether Mendoza starts the opener or comes in for Kirk Cousins midseason, his first start will be must-watch TV.
X Marks The Spot
Maybe the wildest stat in sports at this point.
The Panthers haven't won outright or covered the spread in a game they were favored in since September 23, 2021 … almost five full years ago.
Carolina has played in 12 games as a favorite in that span, 0-4 SU on the road and 0-8 SU at home as a favorite.
Four Panthers QBs have been listed as a favorite in that span: Baker Mayfield (0-3 SU), Bryce Young (0-3 SU), Cam Newton (0-3 SU), Sam Darnold (0-3 SU). 30 of the 32 other NFL teams have at least 10 wins as a favorite in that span — the Giants have just 5, and Carolina sits at 0.
Looking at the Panthers' schedule this season, they are projected to be favored Week 3 at Browns at the moment.
Always One
There has been at least one team that made the playoffs with a preseason win total under .500 in every season since 2003. A team with a win total below 7 has now made the playoffs in six straight years, the longest streak in the Wild Card era (since 1990). Ever since the NFL moved to 14 playoff teams in 2020, this trend has come through each season.
2025 – CAR (6.5)
2024 – WAS (6.5), MIN (6.5), DEN (5.5)
2023 – HOU (6.5), LAR (6.5), TB (6)
2022 – JAC (6.5), SEA (5.5)
2021 – PHI (6.5), CIN (6.5)
2020 – WAS (5)
Expectations have a few different measures, here's one. In the last 20 years, here are the highest average win totals by teams that haven't won a Super Bowl during that span: Chargers 9.2, Cowboys 9.18, Niners 8.6. Over the last decade, the list shifts: Ravens 9.9, Packers 9.8, Bills 9.3, Steelers 9.2, Cowboys 9.2.
Road Woes
The Falcons QB room now consists of Michael Penix Jr., Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Siemian. Those three QBs have all had their issues trying to win games against good teams away from home.
Here are all 3 QBs straight up and against the spread away from home vs. “winning teams” in their NFL careers:
• Tua Tagovailoa: 2-15 SU, 5-11-1 ATS
• Michael Penix Jr.: 1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS
• Trevor Siemian: 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS
The three QBs are a combined 3-25 SU and 9-18-1 ATS in road/neutral games against teams above .500 SU.
Looking at the Falcons' schedule, Atlanta is projected to play away from home vs. a winning team, potentially Week 3 at Packers, Week 8 at Bucs, Week 9 in Spain vs. Bengals
Pack Your Bags
The Browns, Packers, Dolphins, Saints and Commanders will all open the regular season with two straight road games before their home opener in Week 3. Since 1990, teams to have their home opener in Week 3 or later are 67-57 SU (54%) but just 48-72-4 ATS (40%).
12th Man Agenda
Seattle has been a tough place to play early for some. They are 33-7 SU at home in their first three games of the regular season dating back to 2003, which would be just the Patriots in Week 1 this year.
Seattle can also be a tough place to play on a road trip, too. Teams playing in Seattle on the second game or later of a road trip are 13-46 SU since 2003, losing by almost 9.5 PPG. Since the calendar changed to 2023, twelve teams have gone on a road trip to Seattle, those teams are 1-11 SU, with only Jordan Love and the Packers coming away with a win.
Here are those games in 2026: Week 4 vs. Chargers (off at Bills) and Week 9 vs. Cardinals (off at Cowboys)
Familiar Home Dogs
Overall, home underdogs are 56-57 against the spread in Week 1 over the past 20 years. Where we find the value is with divisional home dogs in Week 1. This year, we could have 2 matches: Vikings vs. GB, Giants vs. DAL
Divisional home 'dogs are 27-16 ATS in the past 20 years, including 11-4 ATS since 2018, 19-6 ATS since 2012, and 25-9 ATS since 2009.
Road Warriors
The public tends to overrate favorites and home-field advantage, no matter what time of year it is. And early in the season, the public also tends to overrate what happened the year prior.
Road underdogs in Week 1 are 109-89-6 ATS over the past 20 years. If you split those road dogs by whether that team made the playoffs the year prior, you see a drastic change:
• Made playoffs the year before: 25-36-2 ATS
• Missed playoffs year before: 84-53-4 ATS
Matches coming soon!
2026 NFL Schedule Sheet: All 32 Teams
This is just about the opponents, basically forgetting the actual schedule nuances itself.
How we measured it: For each team, we averaged five inputs across all 17 of their 2026 opponents — sportsbook win totals, Super Bowl Futures, playoff pedigree ratings, opponent QB unit grades, and prior-year win percentage. Division opponents count twice. We also broke out home vs. road splits and compared each team's 2026 slate to what they actually played in 2025.
Schedule Opponent Toughness (SOT): SOT averages each team's rank across five opponent metrics — previous year W%, win total, playoff rating, QB score, and total playoff opps — into one final ranking where 1 = toughest schedule and 32 = easiest.
Playoff Pedigree Rating: A 0-100 score for each team based on recent playoff history — Super Bowl appearances, playoff wins, and last year's result, weighted toward the most recent seasons. Higher = more battle-tested franchise walking into 2026.
Opponent QB Unit Grade: A 0-100 score for each team's quarterback room, built from 2025 and 2024 EPA per play (75/25 weight) with adjustments for injuries, rookies, and multi-QB rotations. Jordan Love tops the league at 90; Shedeur Sanders' Browns sit at the bottom at 8.
This is a deep dive into all 32 teams' 2026 opponent slates, measured five ways:
- Win Totals — what sportsbooks think each opponent will do this year
- Super Bowl Futures — the market's championship pricing on every opponent
- Playoff Strength — pedigree ratings tracking recent postseason runs
- QB Rankings — opponent quarterback unit grades, the single biggest input in any modern matchup
- Year-over-Year Comps — how each team's 2026 slate stacks up against the schedule they actually played in 2025
Let's now dive into some of the outliers, a few lists and some notes before we get the full schedule.
1. The Gauntlet: NFC West Best
Three of the top-four toughest schedules in the NFL all live in the NFC West: Cardinals (SOT #1), Rams (#3), and Seahawks (#4). The Niners (#21) avoid the same fate but only barely — their Opp Win Total still ranks 25th-toughest.
The wild part is the spread: the Cardinals (4.5 win total) and the Rams (11.5 win total) somehow share nearly identical brutal schedules. Win 4 games or win 12, the slate doesn't care.
And it's significantly harder than what each team played in 2025:
- Rams: Opp WT 8.85 (up from 8.74); Opp Playoff Rating 37.3 (up from 24.1); 9 playoff opps (up from 5)
- Seahawks: Opp WT 8.74 (up from 8.50); Opp Playoff Rating 36.9 (up from 25.6); 10 playoff opps (up from 7) — most in the NFL
- Niners: Opp WT 8.44 (up from 7.74); Opp Playoff Rating 30.0 (up from 16.2); 7 playoff opps (up from 4)
- Cardinals: Opp WT 9.32 (up from 8.50, highest in NFL); Opp Playoff Rating 37.5 (up from 24.3); 9 playoff opps (up from 5)
Every single team in this division got a meaningfully harder slate. The division plays each other six times, and the rotation drew NFC East and AFC West — two of the strongest divisions in football.
There's nowhere to hide.
2. The Detroit Gift: Lions Get Some Breaks
The Lions sit at SOT #29, and the Win Total numbers tell the story instantly.
Their 2026 opponents average a Win Total of just 7.97 — the only team in the NFL under 8.0, and dead last in the league. A year ago, they faced a brutal 9.15 Opp Win Total slate. That's a 1.18-win drop, the biggest year-over-year easing in the NFL.
The pedigree drop is just as dramatic. Last year, their opponents averaged a 39.5 Playoff Pedigree Rating; this year it's 22.5, a 17-point fall and the biggest YoY decline. The Lions went from 11 playoff opponents on their 2025 slate down to just 7 in 2026. The Opp QB Score sits at 57.2 — fourth-easiest in the league.
To put the Lions' schedule break in context: only four other teams since division realignment in 2002 have seen their Opponent Win Total drop by over a full win year-over-year. The 2026 Lions are tied for 2nd on that list at -1.18 wins, behind only the 2011 Texans (-1.31). And the comps are encouraging:
- 2011 Texans (-1.31): 10-6, won division, lost in Divisional
- 2026 Lions (-1.18)
- 2025 Patriots (-1.18): 14-3, made Super Bowl
- 2011 Titans (-1.07): 9-7
- 2024 Chargers (-1.06): 11-6, made playoffs
Four of the five went over their win total. The most recent comp — last year's Patriots — was a 14-win Super Bowl team.
3. Easy No More? Patriots Schedule Breakdown
The Patriots went 14-3 last year and lost the Super Bowl. This year, they get a 9.5 win total, +1800 Super Bowl odds, and a schedule that ranks at or near the top of the NFL in every single YoY difficulty jump.
Drake Maye is for real, but the path is fundamentally different than the one they navigated to get here.
Compare 2026 vs 2025:
For added context: that 32.5 Opp Playoff Rating is the highest schedule pedigree the Patriots have faced in this entire decade. Their previous high in the 2020-2026 window was 30.0 in 2023. This isn't just "tougher than last year" — it's the most pedigreed slate New England has navigated in seven years.
The road slate is what really kills them. Every metric is dramatically harder away from Foxboro:
- Opp Win Total: Home 7.88 vs. Road 9.06 (gap of +1.18, 3rd-largest in the NFL)
- Opp Playoff Rating: Home 28.8 vs. Road 35.8 (gap of +7.0)
- Opp SB Futures: Home 10,275 vs. Road 6,850 (away opp. are championship contenders, home opp. are longshots)
Of the five teams with the biggest YoY jumps in opponent win percentage, the Patriots and Niners are the only two with serious win totals to defend (9.5 and 10.5). The other three — Cardinals, Dolphins, Panthers — are all sub-8 win totals.
4. Sunshine Sorrow: Cardinals, Dolphins Headed For Trouble?
It's painful enough being a projected 4.5-win team — now imagine being a 4.5-win team with the toughest schedule in the NFL. That's the 2026 reality for the Cardinals (SOT #1) and Dolphins (SOT #2) — the lowest win totals in the NFL paired with the toughest SOT rankings.
Both teams open the season at +25000 to win the Super Bowl. Both finished outside the playoffs in 2025. Both got handed a slate that ranks in the top 8 in the NFL in every single 2026 SOS metric we track.
Cardinals (SOT #1) face the highest Opp Win Total in the NFL at 9.32 — they're the only team with an opponent slate averaging over nine wins. They face 7 different opponents with double-digit win totals across 10 separate matchups — Rams, Niners, Seahawks, Lions, Eagles, Chiefs, and Chargers (counting division doubles).
Dolphins (SOT #2) draw the single hardest QB gauntlet in football (Opp QB Score of 69.4, the highest in the NFL). Look at the murderers' row of QBs on their schedule: Jordan Love, Josh Allen, Drake Maye, Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes.
The YoY jump for both is dramatic. The Cardinals' Opp Win Total went from 8.50 to 9.32 (+0.82, biggest jump in the NFL). Dolphins went from 8.50 to 9.09 (+0.59). Both went from 5-7 playoff opponents on their 2025 slate to nine in 2026.
5. Not In The Cards: Let's Focus on Arizona
Three Cardinals SOS metrics in 2026 are essentially historic:
- Opp Win Total of 9.32 is the highest in the entire 25-year history of our database (highest of 800 team-seasons since division realignment in 2002).
- Opp Playoff Rating of 37.5 ranks #4 all-time, trailing only the 2025 Lions, 2015 Steelers, and 2023 Eagles. Those three teams went 2-1 under the win total, none made the Conference Championship and all three had win totals of 8.5 or more. Arizona is at 4.5.
- Opp SB Futures of 4,747 is the lowest/hardest mark in NFL this year (1st of 32) and the 3rd-lowest mark for any team in the last three seasons, behind just the 2024 Patriots and 2024 Titans — both missed the playoffs and went under their win totals. The Patriots fired Jerod Mayo at season's end. The Titans stuck with Brian Callahan but fired him six games into 2025.
6. Burrow's Bottom: Bengals Compare Well
Joe Burrow's facing one of the softest schedules of his career.
By Opp Win Total (8.21), 2026 ranks as his 2nd-easiest year ever, behind only 2024. By Opp Playoff Rating (22.8), it's also 2nd-easiest, behind only his 2020 rookie season. And by Opp SB Odds, his 2026 opponents have the longest combined championship odds of any slate he's faced.
Combine that with the fewest 2025 playoff opponents (five, tied with Browns and Saints), and the lowest Opp QB Score in the NFL (54.2), and you have a serious bounce-back setup at 9.5.
7. The Early Playoff Test: Seahawks, Broncos 2026 Top
Two teams in 2026 are tied for the most playoff opponents in the NFL — the Seahawks (10.5 WT) and the Broncos (9.5 WT).
Both face 10 different 2025 playoff teams on their schedules. Since the 17-game era began in 2021, only 14 teams have hit that 10-plus-playoff-opponent threshold. The track record is not great.
- 9 of 14 went under their win total (64%)
- 6 of 14 missed the playoffs entirely (43%)
- Only 1 of 14 made the Conference Championship (Niners 2023, lost the Super Bowl)
The Seahawks at 10.5 with this slate fits that exact archetype. The Broncos have it slightly easier on the win total side (9.5) but their schedule is otherwise just as challenging — Opp Win Total of 8.50, Opp Playoff Rating in the top four of the NFL.
8. We're So Different: Home/Road Outliers
- Falcons play their toughest QBs at home — Home QB Score 69.8 vs. Away 54.6, a gap of 15.2 points that ranks #1 in the NFL. On the other side, Giants face the league's softest QBs at home but the toughest on the road. Their road slate includes the Eagles, Cowboys, Lions and Packers.
- Raiders and Commanders host the gauntlet — both appear in the top five of "tougher at home" across 3-of-4 metrics. The Raiders have an Opp Playoff Rating of 42.3 at home vs. 29.3 on the road (gap of +13.0, biggest in the NFL). Translation: every contender that plays Vegas in 2026 is doing it in Vegas.
- Cowboys' road slate is its own playoff bracket — they have an Opp Playoff Rating of 27.2 at home vs. 40.5 on the road (gap of -13.3, third-largest in the NFL). Their road opponents have an Opp Win Total of 9.50 and average +3,119 SB Futures — meaning real championship contenders.
9. Best of the Best: How The Top Teams Look
We have 10 teams with a win total of 10+, the true teams with expectations. Of those ten teams, the Lions and Ravens have the easiest path, while the Rams, Seahawks and Chargers have the tougher paths.
- The Rams have the hardest path among 10+ WT teams in the NFL. They rank #10 (last/hardest) in 4-of-6 metrics within this contender group: Opp Win Total, Opp Playoff Rating, Opp QB Score, Opp SB Futures. And their win total (11.5) is tied for highest.
- The Ravens have the easiest QB schedule of any 10+ WT team — Opp QB Score 55.2, the lowest in the entire contender tier. Lamar Jackson should feast.
- The Lions face the lowest Opponent Win Total in the NFL — and the easiest path of any contender. Detroit saw the biggest YoY drop in Opponent Playoff Rating in the NFL — a 17-point fall from 39.5 to 22.5.
10. Death Star Schedule: Cowboys Tough Test
The Cowboys have spent the last three years getting pushed around. They went 12-5 in 2023 (lost in the Wild Card), 7-10 in 2024 (Mike McCarthy out), and 7-9-1 in 2025 (Brian Schottenheimer's first year).
Across that three-year stretch, they're 26-24-1 in the regular season with one home Wild Card win to show for it — and the schedule isn't doing them any favors in 2026.
The Cowboys' 8.97 Opponent Win Total is the toughest schedule of the entire Dak Prescott era — going all the way back to his rookie season in 2016. And it's not close.
Three straight years now, Dallas has set a new franchise-difficulty high in that category, obviously with the 17-game schedule caveat starting in 2021:
- 2024: 8.59 Opp WT (then-franchise high) → 7-10, missed playoffs
- 2025: 8.85 Opp WT (broke their own record) → 7-9-1, missed playoffs
- 2026: 8.97 Opp WT (broke it again) → TBD
The Opp Playoff Rating tells the same story.
In Prescott's first eight seasons (2016-2023), the Cowboys never faced an Opp Playoff Rating above 29.5. The last three seasons it's been 31.2, 33.9, and 33.5.
The pedigree of opponents Dallas faces has fundamentally changed — and not in its favor.
