The NFL heads overseas to Sao Paulo, Brazil, where the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers open their seasons in a primetime AFC West clash on Friday, September 5.
Patrick Mahomes begins his quest for another Super Bowl run on international soil, bringing along his trusted weapon, Travis Kelce, and the explosive Isiah Pacheco to headline Kansas City’s offense.
The Chargers, meanwhile, look to reset under a new regime and prove they can hang with the reigning division powerhouse.
With the bright lights shining in Brazil and the rivalry renewed, our top picks from NFL PrizePicks and Underdog spotlight Mahomes, Kelce and Pacheco in what promises to be a spectacular showcase to kick off the year abroad.
NFL PrizePicks, Underdog Plays for Friday, September 5
Isiah Pacheco
Less Than 12 Rushing Attempts
It's been nearly a year since Isiah Pacheco suffered a broken fibula in Week 2 of last season.
While Pacheco returned last season, it was clear he was not his old self, and Kareem Hunt maintained a strong role in the backfield during the Chiefs' Super Bowl run.
While Pacheco's outlook for this season is more optimistic — he should be much healthier to start the season — that does not mean he will be a bell-cow back to start the season.
Pacheco only had more than 12 carries twice in the eight games since returning from injury. With Kareem Hunt well in the mix and Elijah Mitchell potentially seeing work, it's unlikely Pacheco eclipses this mark in the season-opener.
Travis Kelce
Less Than 50.5 Receiving Yards
Next, we turn our attention to Travis Kelce, who enters the season fresh off his engagement to Taylor Swift, but also off a 2024 campaign where we saw him take a big step back in production.
Kelce posted career lows in yardage, yards per reception and touchdowns in 2024. While his opportunity to start the 2025 season on the right foot is increased, due to the suspension of Rashee Rice, the Chargers also have the opportunity to key in on him.
We saw this as the case when these two teams met last December.
Rice was out with an injury, and Kelce hauled in five of six targets for just 45 yards. Yes, it's a small sample size, but Kelce's overall decline, combined with a tough matchup (Los Angeles ranked 11th in yards allowed to tight ends last season), gives this value.
Patrick Mahomes
Less Than 23.5 Completions
Lastly, we target the signal-caller for the Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes.
As we mentioned above, Mahomes will be down a key target in Rashee Rice so the Chargers secondary will have one less threat to worry about when Mahomes does drop back to pass.
However, the Chargers impact this pick in two ways. The first being their defensive prowess. L.A. ranked 13th in opponent completion percentage, fourth in yards per pass allowed and ninth in sack rate.
Meanwhile, the Chargers were 26th in yards per rush allowed. So, Kansas City is inclined to run the ball more in the matchup. Speaking of running the ball, the Chargers did that at the 10th-highest rate last season.
With that rate expected to be sustained this season under Jim Harbaugh, the Chiefs may not possess the ball much, which will impact Mahomes' opportunity to throw the ball.
In their two low-scoring meeting last season, Mahomes racked up 19 and 24 completions. Unless he's in a trailing game script, this is a strong pick.
