The AFC West is a fascinating division this year.
The market has three teams power-rated similarly at the top, all sitting around +200 to win the crown, while the Raiders are basement-dwelling at +2000. Let's dive into the numbers, the regression candidates, and our favorite preseason futures for the West.
Continue below for our favorite AFC West predictions for the 2026 NFL season, which include win total bets for the Chiefs and Chargers, a division win total play on the Raiders, and a long shot fade of the Broncos.
NFL Futures — AFC West Predictions
| NFL Futures Picks |
|---|
| Chiefs Win Total Bet |
| Chargers Win Total Bet |
| Fade Denver Early? |
| How Many Division Games Will Vegas Win? |
Chiefs Under 10.5 Wins (-140)
I'm going under on the Chiefs' win total this season as I have them projected at 9.7 wins.
It's easy to look at Kansas City's uncharacteristic 6-11 season and assume an immediate bounce back, considering it went a disastrous 1-9 in one-possession games.
You obviously expect positive regression there, but not everything was unlucky for K.C. The Chiefs went an absurd 24-of-32 (75%) on fourth downs last season, while opponents went just 6-of-23 (26%).
My real questions lie with the roster, which is trending in the wrong direction. The defense lost massive pieces in the secondary, meaning you're asking rookie corners to play at an All-Pro level right out of the gate in Steve Spagnuolo's exotic scheme.
Offensively, Kenneth Walker brings much-needed explosiveness, but you still have a declining Travis Kelce and massive question marks at tackle.
It's under or nothing for me.
I agree the roster hasn't been upgraded enough to warrant this win total, but I'm looking at alternate markets.
The Chiefs have the easiest schedule in the NFL over the first four weeks, with an opposing win total average of just 6.75.
Because of that early runway, I prefer taking Chiefs Under 3.5 Division Wins (+120) and Travis Kelce Under 66.5 Receptions.
Chargers Under 9.5 Wins (-110)
I originally wanted to be bullish on this team after upgrading to Mike McDaniel at offensive coordinator, but the injuries are already piling up.
Tyler Biadasz is out for the year — that means the Chargers will have rookie Jake Slaughter playing center next to two very questionable guards. Plus, Rashawn Slater is already banged up.
Then there's the schedule.
The Chargers are dead last in net rest advantage at a brutal -24, which is one of the five-worst negative net rest disadvantages since 1990.
Defensively, they lost defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, and they have six defensive players sitting at the age cliff for their respective positions.
The Chargers went 6-2 in one-possession games last year, and they only beat three playoff teams. I project them at 9.4 wins, making me lean to the under.
Jim Harbaugh has been a covering machine, going 59-36-3 ATS (62%) in the regular season over his career.
However, the offensive line and defensive age are massive red flags.
I agree on the Chargers Under 9.5 Wins, and I also like Justin Herbert Over 3,500 Passing Yards given how often they might be trailing.
Fade Broncos Early: 0 Wins in First 5 Games (+1600)
The Broncos were the anti-Chiefs last year, going an insane 11-2 in one-possession games en route to a 14-3 record.
When you adjust for the quarterbacks they actually faced, Denver had arguably the easiest schedule in the league last year. The Broncos only beat two playoff teams with their starting QB all year.
This season, they get smacked with a brutal early schedule where seven of their first eight games are against projected playoff teams.
I have them projected right on their win total of 9.5, but I want to sell them early.
I am fully on board with fading Denver out of the gate.
The Broncos' first five games are at K.C,, Jacksonville, Rams, at San Francisco, and at the Chargers.
I'm taking a sprinkle on Denver to win exactly zero of its first five games at 16-1, and I don't hate a look at them to be the last winless team at 30-1.
Raiders Over 1.5 Division Wins (+110)
Last year was an abject disaster for Las Vegas, but I expect the offensive operation to look much smoother this season with new head coach Klint Kubiak.
The Raiders upgraded heavily in the trenches, bringing in elite center Tyler Linderbaum and getting left tackle Colton Miller back.
The defensive talent and wide receiver rooms are severely lacking, but if the rest of the division succumbs to injuries and regression, Las Vegas might be able to steal a couple of divisional games.
The upgraded offensive line is the biggest factor here, which should drastically improve Ashton Jeanty's output.
I think taking them to go Over 1.5 Division Wins at +110 is a smart way to fade the rest of the division without fully buying into the Raiders' season-long ceiling.
