The Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints will face off in Week 1 of the NFL preseason this afternoon. Kickoff is set for in 4:00 p.m. ET from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, La. The game will broadcast live on the ESPN App.
The Saints are 1.5-point favorites over the Jaguars on the spread (Saints -1.5), with the over/under set at 35.5 total points. New Orleans is a 58-cent favorite to win outright, while Jacksonville is priced at 44 cents to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Jaguars vs. Saints predictions and NFL picks for Saturday, August 15.
My Jaguars vs Saints Prediction
- Jaguars vs Saints pick: Saints -1.5
My Jaguars vs Saints prediction is on New Orleans to cover the spread (-1.5), with the best price currently available at Polymarket. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Jaguars vs Saints Odds
Jaguars vs Saints NFL Preseason Preview
Jacksonville Jaguars Preview: QB Depth Limits Upside
The Jaguars have officially announced plans to rest their starters for Saturday's preseason opener. That leaves veteran backup Nick Mullens inline to get the start at quarterback.
Entering his ninth year in the league, Mullens brings plenty of starting experience, compiling a 5-15 record across 20 NFL starts while completing 66% of his passes for roughly 170 yards per game, with 34 touchdowns and 31 interceptions.
Jacksonville knows exactly what it has in its 31-year-old signal-caller, meaning there is little incentive to push him heavily. Expect Mullens to play the first half at most, with an exit likely even sooner.
Once Mullens takes his place on the sideline, Jacksonville’s offense will hand the reins to an unproven pair of signal-callers — undrafted rookies Carter Bradley and Joey Aguilar — competing for the third-string job.
While both young quarterbacks will be eager to prove themselves, facing NFL secondary units with no prior professional experience presents a steep learning curve.
Compared to some of the more experienced options taking snaps for New Orleans, Jacksonville’s late-game quarterback situation leaves them at a bit of a disadvantage.
New Orleans Saints Preview: The Stronger QB Group
The Saints are similarly holding out key starters, but their quarterback depth chart features a pair of signal-callers with substantial regular-season starting experience.
Spencer Rattler is slated to get the nod under center. Named the Week 1 starter last season before going 1-7 and eventually passing the torch to Tyler Shough, Rattler showed glimpses of functional play despite the team's struggles.
He completed 67.7% of his passes for 176 yards per game with eight touchdowns and five interceptions, while adding another 19 rushing yards per contest.
Rattler enters Saturday motivated to solidify his roster spot and prove his place in the league.
Behind Rattler, New Orleans boasts former 2021 No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson. While Wilson faced heavy criticism during his time with the Jets, his experience level is still superior to typical second-half preseason quarterbacks.
After a difficult rookie campaign, Wilson posted a respectable 9-11 record over his next 20 starts with the Jets, averaging over 189 passing yards per game alongside 14 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
Going up against Jacksonville’s third- and fourth-string defensive backups, Wilson should give New Orleans an edge when it comes to late-game execution.
Undrafted rookie Hunter Dekkers, who started four games in the UFL last season for the Houston Gamblers (2-2 record, 3 TDs, 2 INTs), is a bit of a wild card, and he will likely close out the game.
Jaguars vs Saints Prediction, Analysis
This matchup triggers the Bet Labs system titled "NFL Preseason: Contrarian Sharp." The underlying logic of this system centers on identifying reverse line movement where oddsmakers actively shift a line in favor of a team despite public action coming in on the opposite side.
That scenario is playing out here. The market opened with Jacksonville listed as a 1.5-point favorite, and the public has poured into the Jaguars, accounting for 62% of the total spread wagers and 65% of the total money at the time of writing.
Despite taking heavy public action on Jacksonville, oddsmakers have completely flipped the spread, moving New Orleans from a 1.5-point underdog to a 1.5-point favorite, with some books even stretching to -2.5.
When oddsmakers willingly take on increased liability against public perception in an exhibition setting, it indicates strong confidence in the favored side.
With the oddsmakers standing their ground alongside a Saints team that seemingly holds the edge in quarterback depth, we'll back the contrarian line movement and lay the short number with New Orleans.
Pick: Saints -1.5
