Initially, I wanted to bet the Bengals here. Joe Burrow is a remarkable 18-3 ATS (86%) in his career as an underdog of three or more points in the regular or postseason, winning nine of the last 14 such games outright — including just last week. But this might be the game that finally gets the Bengals coaching staff fired. Cincinnati's offense just doesn't optimize itself, and that could be a death blow against a Buffalo defense that's gettable, but only if you attack its weaknesses. Buffalo is bad against motion and playaction, but the Bengals rarely attack that way. Cincinnati loves to play out of 11 personnel, second most of any team, but the Bills rank top-five in EPA per play against base. Buffalo prefers to play a lot of two-high safety looks and rank top-three in EPA defending that way; Cincinnati faces two-high looks more than any team and ranks 30th in EPA against it. The Bengals simply aren't getting to any easy buttons with this offense and making things simpler. Buffalo also ranks top five in pressure rate while Cincinnati has struggled all year against pressure. You beat the Bills by running on them, and Cincinnati is a pretty good running team! But the Bengals don't often commit to the run game enough, stubbornly dropping Joe Burrow back out of the shotgun and letting him chuck it all game. The truth is that both run defenses in this game are awful, as bad as anyone in football outside of the Giants. But only one of these offenses commits to the run. Just look at the Bills against the Steelers last week. Josh Allen was under two yards ADOT for the game and got the ball out quickly when they threw it, instead leading James Cook pound the rock all night. With Buffalo's offensive line banged up, running the ball is actually a way to protect the line since it's easier to run block. Allen doesn't have to be the MVP if Cook just does all the dirty work for him. The Bills are 6-0 this season when Cook has 19 or more carries; they're just 2-4 when he doesn't, with both wins coming in wild shootouts. When Cook does have 19+ carries, he averages 23.3 rushes for 144 yards, with at least 108 yards in every game and six TDs in all. Both offenses should want to grind out long, sustained drives to keep the dangerous opposing QB on the sidelines, but only Buffalo really commits to doing that. The Bengals have allowed 14+ carries to a runner 10 times. They've allowed six RBs to run for 93+ yards and three to hit 125 or more. Only one RB had over 18 carries, but that was a breakout game for Kyle Monangai with 26/176, and Buffalo funnels its touches through Cook. A big James Cook game here should proxy as a Bills win. Just look at his numbers in three of the last four Buffalo wins: 32/144 last week against Pittsburgh, 27/114 against the Chiefs in a similar script to this one, and 19/216 against Carolina with two TDs. We're taking the Cook escalator all the way up. Start with over 95.5 rushing yards (Fanatics). The Bengals allow 153 YPG on the ground. And rather than play over 19.5 rushing attempts, let's just assume if Cook gets those 20+ carries that he'll also be productive. It's the terrible Bengals defense, after all, and Cook averages 23/144 with 19+ carries! Play 120+ yards at +235 along with 140+ yards at +475 (bet365), and let's also touch 28+ rushing attempts at +1360 (DraftKings) since he's had 27 and 32 rushes in Buffalo's last two wins. I'm also playing Cook at +300 (BetRivers) to take the rushing crown. He's only 54 yards behind Jonathan Taylor, who has a brutal closing schedule, and Cook may very well have the lead after Sunday if he has a big game against the Bengals.

Initially, I wanted to bet the Bengals here. Joe Burrow is a remarkable 18-3 ATS (86%) in his career as an underdog of three or more points in the regular or postseason, winning nine of the last 14 such games outright — including just last week. But this might be the game that finally gets the Bengals coaching staff fired. Cincinnati's offense just doesn't optimize itself, and that could be a death blow against a Buffalo defense that's gettable, but only if you attack its weaknesses. Buffalo is bad against motion and playaction, but the Bengals rarely attack that way. Cincinnati loves to play out of 11 personnel, second most of any team, but the Bills rank top-five in EPA per play against base. Buffalo prefers to play a lot of two-high safety looks and rank top-three in EPA defending that way; Cincinnati faces two-high looks more than any team and ranks 30th in EPA against it. The Bengals simply aren't getting to any easy buttons with this offense and making things simpler. Buffalo also ranks top five in pressure rate while Cincinnati has struggled all year against pressure. You beat the Bills by running on them, and Cincinnati is a pretty good running team! But the Bengals don't often commit to the run game enough, stubbornly dropping Joe Burrow back out of the shotgun and letting him chuck it all game. The truth is that both run defenses in this game are awful, as bad as anyone in football outside of the Giants. But only one of these offenses commits to the run. Just look at the Bills against the Steelers last week. Josh Allen was under two yards ADOT for the game and got the ball out quickly when they threw it, instead leading James Cook pound the rock all night. With Buffalo's offensive line banged up, running the ball is actually a way to protect the line since it's easier to run block. Allen doesn't have to be the MVP if Cook just does all the dirty work for him. The Bills are 6-0 this season when Cook has 19 or more carries; they're just 2-4 when he doesn't, with both wins coming in wild shootouts. When Cook does have 19+ carries, he averages 23.3 rushes for 144 yards, with at least 108 yards in every game and six TDs in all. Both offenses should want to grind out long, sustained drives to keep the dangerous opposing QB on the sidelines, but only Buffalo really commits to doing that. The Bengals have allowed 14+ carries to a runner 10 times. They've allowed six RBs to run for 93+ yards and three to hit 125 or more. Only one RB had over 18 carries, but that was a breakout game for Kyle Monangai with 26/176, and Buffalo funnels its touches through Cook. A big James Cook game here should proxy as a Bills win. Just look at his numbers in three of the last four Buffalo wins: 32/144 last week against Pittsburgh, 27/114 against the Chiefs in a similar script to this one, and 19/216 against Carolina with two TDs. We're taking the Cook escalator all the way up. Start with over 95.5 rushing yards (Fanatics). The Bengals allow 153 YPG on the ground. And rather than play over 19.5 rushing attempts, let's just assume if Cook gets those 20+ carries that he'll also be productive. It's the terrible Bengals defense, after all, and Cook averages 23/144 with 19+ carries! Play 120+ yards at +235 along with 140+ yards at +475 (bet365), and let's also touch 28+ rushing attempts at +1360 (DraftKings) since he's had 27 and 32 rushes in Buffalo's last two wins. I'm also playing Cook at +300 (BetRivers) to take the rushing crown. He's only 54 yards behind Jonathan Taylor, who has a brutal closing schedule, and Cook may very well have the lead after Sunday if he has a big game against the Bengals.

Initially, I wanted to bet the Bengals here. Joe Burrow is a remarkable 18-3 ATS (86%) in his career as an underdog of three or more points in the regular or postseason, winning nine of the last 14 such games outright — including just last week. But this might be the game that finally gets the Bengals coaching staff fired. Cincinnati's offense just doesn't optimize itself, and that could be a death blow against a Buffalo defense that's gettable, but only if you attack its weaknesses. Buffalo is bad against motion and playaction, but the Bengals rarely attack that way. Cincinnati loves to play out of 11 personnel, second most of any team, but the Bills rank top-five in EPA per play against base. Buffalo prefers to play a lot of two-high safety looks and rank top-three in EPA defending that way; Cincinnati faces two-high looks more than any team and ranks 30th in EPA against it. The Bengals simply aren't getting to any easy buttons with this offense and making things simpler. Buffalo also ranks top five in pressure rate while Cincinnati has struggled all year against pressure. You beat the Bills by running on them, and Cincinnati is a pretty good running team! But the Bengals don't often commit to the run game enough, stubbornly dropping Joe Burrow back out of the shotgun and letting him chuck it all game. The truth is that both run defenses in this game are awful, as bad as anyone in football outside of the Giants. But only one of these offenses commits to the run. Just look at the Bills against the Steelers last week. Josh Allen was under two yards ADOT for the game and got the ball out quickly when they threw it, instead leading James Cook pound the rock all night. With Buffalo's offensive line banged up, running the ball is actually a way to protect the line since it's easier to run block. Allen doesn't have to be the MVP if Cook just does all the dirty work for him. The Bills are 6-0 this season when Cook has 19 or more carries; they're just 2-4 when he doesn't, with both wins coming in wild shootouts. When Cook does have 19+ carries, he averages 23.3 rushes for 144 yards, with at least 108 yards in every game and six TDs in all. Both offenses should want to grind out long, sustained drives to keep the dangerous opposing QB on the sidelines, but only Buffalo really commits to doing that. The Bengals have allowed 14+ carries to a runner 10 times. They've allowed six RBs to run for 93+ yards and three to hit 125 or more. Only one RB had over 18 carries, but that was a breakout game for Kyle Monangai with 26/176, and Buffalo funnels its touches through Cook. A big James Cook game here should proxy as a Bills win. Just look at his numbers in three of the last four Buffalo wins: 32/144 last week against Pittsburgh, 27/114 against the Chiefs in a similar script to this one, and 19/216 against Carolina with two TDs. We're taking the Cook escalator all the way up. Start with over 95.5 rushing yards (Fanatics). The Bengals allow 153 YPG on the ground. And rather than play over 19.5 rushing attempts, let's just assume if Cook gets those 20+ carries that he'll also be productive. It's the terrible Bengals defense, after all, and Cook averages 23/144 with 19+ carries! Play 120+ yards at +235 along with 140+ yards at +475 (bet365), and let's also touch 28+ rushing attempts at +1360 (DraftKings) since he's had 27 and 32 rushes in Buffalo's last two wins. I'm also playing Cook at +300 (BetRivers) to take the rushing crown. He's only 54 yards behind Jonathan Taylor, who has a brutal closing schedule, and Cook may very well have the lead after Sunday if he has a big game against the Bengals.