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This is Daily Dangles, a column featuring our top expert’s NHL picks, predictions, and best bets.
Every day, one of our experts will provide you with some of the sharpest, high-value betting analysis on what the NHL schedule offers us.
For Monday, October 5, Nick Martin has us covered.
NHL Picks, Predictions Tonight
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- Ottawa Senators Moneyline (-115, bet365; Play to -120)
- Cole Perfetti Point (-105, DraftKings; Play to -110)
- Dallas Stars -1.5 (+145, DraftKings; Play to +140)
Senators vs Bruins Pick
My first slate breakdown piece of the year was a modest success, as the picks finished 2-for-3. The losing selection came in attempting the Boston Bruins, and I'm willing to see if the Bruins can continue to prove me wrong once again Monday night, as they play for the third time in four nights versus a potentially underrated Ottawa Senators squad.
Captain Brady Tkachuk forced Ottawa's hand into trading him this offseason, which has become much more of a trend over the last few years. From a long-term perspective, it certainly hurts the Senators (and many other franchises) to see another superstar player successfully orchestrate a trade request to a more desirable franchise.
But the Tkachuk situation was clearly a distraction at times last season, and there were still many other positives to take away from the year for the Senators, and it seems that perhaps the remaining strength of the roster is being underrated entering the year.
Tim Stutzle was unquestionably the team's best forward last season, and should once again perform as a true number one center. Dylan Cozens and Shane Pinto provide reliable two-way options down the middle, while their overall depth on the wings is still quite respectable.
Ottawa finished the 2025-26 campaign with the best xGA/60 rating in the NHL, and the strength of its blue line was a key reason why. When fully healthy, the unit should be quite excellent, and though a potential absence of Jake Sanderson for Monday's matchup is needle-moving, the depth of the unit should make the absence livable.
Goaltending is the major question mark for the Senators, especially relative to a team like the Bruins, who offer a Vezina candidate in Jeremy Swayman. Linus Ullmark was sharp in Ottawa's season-opening win on Saturday though, and he certainly enters the year as a strong bounce-back candidate after a tumultuous 2025-26 campaign.
Relative to their price of -115, Ottawa should carry much of the play versus the Bruins in this spot, so we will live with the potential mismatch in goal.
Pick: Ottawa Senators Moneyline -115 (bet365, Play to -120)
Jets vs Penguins Pick
Perfetti did not progress the way the Jets organization would have hoped in 2025-26, but the 24-year-old former top 10 selection seems to be on the right track for a much more productive campaign this year. Perfetti missed training camp and the early part of last season due to injury and struggled to get fully acclimated while playing on some highly ineffective lines in the Jets' middle six.
Perfetti has played the majority of the Jets' first two games alongside Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor on the Jets' highly productive top line and has put up four points thus far. He's also skating on the Jets' top power play unit, which is likely to be among the league's more effective combinations this season.
The Penguins seem likely to play fairly high-event hockey this season, and Monday's matchup does feature a total of 6.5. Based on his play in the first two games of the season and his current role, we may not see prices in the -105 range for Perfetti to record a point for very long.
Pick: Cole Perfetti Over 0.5 Points -105 (DraftKings, Play to -110)
Sharks vs Stars Pick
So far the Sharks are living up to the hype, as they enter at 2-0-0 with overtime victories over the Florida Panthers and Los Angeles Kings. As expected, their young stars have shown great offensive upside, while their overall defensive play has been quite sloppy.
The Sharks have allowed 4.18 xGA/60 in a tiny sample of two games, but the important caveat is obviously that this is the level of play that was expected from their defensive core.
Darnell Nurse and Jacob Trouba are proven NHL talents capable of bringing a physical edge, but they are still likely to be below-average options skating in the top four. While Michael Kesselring is highly underrated, he's arguably the team's top defender, and that is certainly a clear weakness and a concern entering a matchup versus one of the deepest offensive lineups in the league.
Dallas did not have a good showing in its season opener loss versus the Blues, but it feels safe to say that we know what the current roster is and the floor feels extremely high for a roster holding six elite talents, great goaltending and solid overall depth.
At +1600, Dallas is still one of my favorite bets to win it all, and this seems to be a good spot to back them earning a comfortable win on home ice versus a Sharks team that will likely still have some significant flaws on the back end.
Pick: Dallas Stars -1.5 +145 (DraftKings, Play to +140)
