Team USA enters Friday's Olympic men's hockey semifinal against Slovakia as overwhelming favorites, with Kalshi traders pricing the Americans' victory at 89 cents (89% probability), while Slovakia sits at just 12 cents (12% chance) in the market.
The stark contrast in market confidence reflects the Americans' dominant path to the semifinals, where they cruised through their quarterfinal matchup while their opponents endured the grueling uncertainty of overtime hockey. The USA market has generated significant activity with 18,557 contracts traded at the current 89% implied probability, while Slovakia's longshot odds have attracted 38,987 contracts of volume from bettors looking for value on the underdog.
If you're curious about Kalshi — which is legal in most states and offers a variety of unique markets — or want to make your own USA vs Slovakia predictions, be sure to use our Kalshi promo code to get started.
USA vs Slovakia Odds
Slovakia's journey to the medal round exemplifies the "cold, heartless madness" that has defined these Olympics, as they joined two other hockey superpowers in surviving three-on-three overtime to reach the semifinals.
The format has created chaos throughout the tournament, with several traditional powers falling victim to the lottery-like nature of sudden-death hockey.
The Americans, however, represent the lone team that "comfortably punched" their ticket to the final four, controlling their quarterfinal even while managing key players' health. This seamless progression has clearly influenced market sentiment, with traders viewing USA as the most reliable path to the gold medal game.
Slovakia's 12% market probability shouldn't be dismissed entirely in Olympic hockey, where upsets have become commonplace and single-elimination formats amplify variance.
The Slovaks have already proven their mettle by navigating the tournament's most treacherous path, surviving multiple overtime scenarios that eliminated other contenders as significant underdogs.
With the gold medal race intensifying, Thursday's semifinal represents a classic David vs. Goliath scenario. While prediction markets heavily favor the Americans, Slovakia's resilience under pressure and the unpredictable nature of Olympic hockey ensure that 12% chance carries more weight than the numbers might suggest.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
