A partial government shutdown appears increasingly likely this weekend, with Kalshi prediction markets pricing the probability at 56 cents (56% chance) that the government will be shut down by January 31 as Democrats demand immigration enforcement reforms following a fatal shooting in Minneapolis.
The government shutdown odds reflect the political standoff intensifying in Washington. The market has seen heavy activity with over 15.5 million contracts traded and more than 4.3 million in open interest, indicating significant trader engagement as the deadline approaches.
If you also want to get in on the action, Kalshi offers users the opportunity to make predictions and win real money in most of the 50 U.S. states. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here.
Will the Government Shutdown on Saturday?
The crisis stems from Democrats pushing to remove Department of Homeland Security funding from a $1.2 trillion spending bill unless additional oversight is added to immigration enforcement. The political drama escalated following the fatal shooting of 37-year-old nurse Alex Pretti by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis, prompting calls for ICE reform and increased accountability measures.
According to multiple reports, talks to avert the shutdown have intensified, but Democrats remain firm on their demands for immigration oversight provisions. The BBC reports that negotiations are "edging closer" to a deal, while AP News indicates Democrats are "poised to trigger" a shutdown over ICE reform demands.
A partial shutdown would significantly impact government operations, with various federal agencies and services facing disruptions. The betting markets' 56% shutdown probability suggests traders view the standoff as a genuine coin flip, reflecting the uncertain political dynamics as both parties dig in on their positions.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
