House Democrats' threat to impeach DHS Secretary Kristi Noem unless President Trump fires her has prediction markets pricing Trump's own impeachment.
The impeachment threat stems from what House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Democratic Whip Katherine Clark, and Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar called "the violence unleashed on the American people by the Department of Homeland Security" in a joint statement. The Democratic leaders demanded Trump fire Noem "forthwith" or face impeachment proceedings against her.
For anyone interested in predicting Trump's impeachment, Kalshi allows users to place real money on the outcome in most states.
Trump Impeachment Odds, Predictions:
Kalshi traders are actively wagering on presidential impeachment odds, with the market showing a bid-ask spread of 64%-65% and significant trading volume of 243,069 contracts. The market's 63,858 open contracts indicate sustained trader attention.
The 66% probability reflects traders' assessment that escalating political tensions could lead to impeachment proceedings against Trump himself, not just his cabinet members. With Democrats lacking House control, any impeachment effort would require Republican support or a significant shift in political dynamics over the next three years.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
