The HOOD beat market sits at 78% Yes with one day left on the clock, and the Polymarket referral code ACTION allows you to lock in a $20 new player bonus today.
The market resolves Yes only if Robinhood reports GAAP EPS above $0.43 when it prints after the close on July 29. Yes trades at 77.5 cents, No at 22.5; this one opened near 88% before stepping down to 78% on July 24.
Robinhood has beaten adjusted EPS five quarters running, and the stock has fallen after every one of those prints, by an average of roughly 8%, per TIKR. The March quarter is the template. Adjusted came in at $0.47 against a $0.43 estimate, while GAAP landed at $0.38 and fell short.
Robinhood Stock End-of-July Odds
This market resolves on the GAAP line, which is the one Robinhood has been missing.
The nine-cent wedge between the two numbers is share-based compensation and the rest of the adjustments, and it does not shrink in a quarter where the company is spending.
What's interesting is that the trading volume metrics are already public. CFO Shiv Verma said in April that equity and options volumes were tracking toward the highest month of the year with about $5 billion of net deposits month to date. Chief Brokerage Officer Steve Quirk told the Piper Sandler conference on June 4 that April was the second-highest month ever in equities and options and the highest ever in futures and prediction markets, that May was very strong, and that June 1 was the biggest equity trading day in company history.
Consensus revenue near $1.2 billion against $989 million a year ago already reflects all of it.
The soft spot is the highest-take-rate line. Crypto revenue fell 47% to $134 million in Q1, and Q2 gave it nothing back: spot volume across centralized exchanges hit a two-year low of $3.0 trillion, with May coming in at a $619 billion monthly floor and June recovering only to $695 billion in volume.
Robinhood Chain launched July 1, which puts it in the current quarter, not the reported one.
So do the other three things. Robinhood raised its 2026 adjusted opex and share-based comp outlook by $100 million to build Trump Accounts, which went live July 4. The FINRA pattern day trader change took effect June 4, leaving under four weeks in the quarter.
Rothera, the prediction market exchange built with Susquehanna, went live in June, and Quirk said the economics get passed to customers rather than kept.
The costs landed inside the June quarter. The revenue from them lands after it.
The 78% is pricing a high trading volume quarter, and a volume quarter is what management already told everyone happened. The bar on July 29 is a GAAP quarter, and Robinhood has cleared that bar less often than the odds suggest.
The Robinhood Trade
No at 22.5 cents is the better side of this one. A print that beats revenue and still misses GAAP by a penny is exactly what happened in March, and the $100 million opex raise plus a two-year low in crypto volumes both land in this quarter rather than the next. The risk is a clean $1.28 billion revenue quarter with lighter share-based comp, which pushes GAAP through $0.43 without drama. Size conservatively, as this is a high-risk, high-reward trade.
