The UEFA Champions League has reached its first true turning point: the knockout phase. With the "league phase" safety net gone, the European giants face high-stakes, two-legged battles for survival. The margin for error has vanished as teams fight to secure a spot in the next round. The road to Budapest is now at its most treacherous.
We have eight games to target on this week's Champions League schedule, and our staff has come up with picks for six of them. Continue reading for our Champions League best bets for March 10 and March 11.
Champions League Best Bets
The club logos in the table below represent each match that our soccer betting staff is targeting from today's games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Match | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | Tuesday 1:45 p.m. | |
  | Tuesday 4 p.m. | |
  | Tuesday 4 p.m. | |
  | Wednesday 1:45 p.m. | |
  | Wednesday 4 p.m. | |
  | Wednesday 4 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our soccer Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Liverpool vs. Galatasaray SK
Liverpool has never won in its three previous Champions League visits to Galatasaray. Despite this historical struggle on Turkish soil, the Reds possess a distinct advantage in this stage of the competition. They have won the away leg in nine of their last 12 round-of-16 ties, showing they know how to manage high-pressure road games.
Scheduling also favors the visitors. Liverpool played an FA Cup match on Friday, giving them an extra day of rest before the trip to Istanbul. Meanwhile, Galatasaray faced a demanding domestic derby against Beşiktaş over the weekend. With the Champions League a clear priority for a Liverpool side that has had a disappointing domestic campaign, expect manager Arne Slot to field his strongest possible lineup.
However, Galatasaray has proven its ability to compete. The Turkish champions have lost just two of their last 22 European knockout fixtures in Istanbul and ride a 10-match unbeaten streak at home. Given Galatasaray’s need to press for a lead at home and Liverpool’s consistent offensive output, a bet on both teams to score holds significant value.
Pick: Liverpool To Win & Both Teams To Score – Yes
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Tottenham vs. Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid enters this contest as the clear favorite, but their defensive record suggests they are far from impenetrable. They have conceded goals in seven of their last 10 matches at their home stadium, and allowed Club Brugge to create a 1.74 xG tally. This defensive instability provides a clear path for opponents to get on the scoresheet.
Tottenham is fighting to avoid relegation from the Premier League, but their European performances have been a different story. They found success in the group stage and have demonstrated an ability to score on the road, a trend that boosts the case for this pick.
Atletico holds a solid record against English opposition in Europe with 13 wins, 12 draws, and 10 losses. In contrast, Tottenham has struggled against Spanish teams, with only two wins from 14 European matches. Given the context, Atletico is positioned to take a lead into the second leg, but the value lies in a home victory where both sides contribute to the scoring.
Pick: Atlético To Win & Both Teams To Score – Yes
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Bayern Munich vs. Atalanta
The German powerhouse enters this contest as a heavy favorite, a status earned through a dominant continental campaign that includes seven wins in eight fixtures. Under manager Vincent Kompany, Bayern's attack was the second-most productive in the league phase of the tournament, scoring 22 goals. It also has scored in all 20 of its road matches this season.
Key to it all is Harry Kane. The Englishman has been in world-class form for Bayern, with eight goals in just eight Champions League appearances this season, or a goal every 76 minutes. The matchup also favors a productive day for the striker. Atalanta has struggled to keep opponents off the scoreboard in Europe, with just one clean sheet in its five Champions League matches this season.
The striker is questionable after he missed the previous match with a knock, so you should confirm his status in the starting lineup before you consider this play. If he is on the field, the value is clear.
Pick: Harry Kane to Score Anytime
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Arsenal vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Arsenal travels to Germany with a perfect record in this season's Champions League, a run of eight wins from eight games that established them as a primary tournament favorite. Mikel Arteta’s team has demonstrated a relentless attacking style, scoring 23 goals in the competition so far. They have scored first in every match and are the only team that has not trailed for a single minute.
Still, Leverkusen should not be underestimated. It recovered from a difficult start to its European campaign, securing impressive road victories over Manchester City and Benfica. Their 2-0 away win over Olympiacos in the previous knockout round shows they possess the discipline to compete.
Arsenal enters this first leg as a heavy favorite on the moneyline, but their recent defensive record away from home presents an opportunity. The Gunners have allowed at least one goal in seven of their last 10 road games. This vulnerability, combined with Leverkusen's pressing need to secure a result before the return trip to London, suggests goals are on the menu.
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals
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Chelsea vs. Paris Saint-Germain
Reigning European champion Paris Saint-Germain will aim to avenge the 3-0 defeat it suffered against Chelsea in last summer's Club World Cup final. We can expect Luis Enrique’s side to control possession, much like it did in that loss, where it held the ball 66% of the time. The key difference this time must be efficiency; PSG generated just 0.53 expected goals (xG) in that final, a number it must improve upon.
While PSG has been shaky at home in this competition, with just two wins in five matches at the Parc des Princes, Chelsea has its own struggles away from home. The Blues have recorded only one road win in the Champions League this season, and will likely adopt a counter-attack strategy, a tactic that has brought recent success.
While PSG possesses a formidable attack, signs of defensive frailty have appeared recently, especially in Champions League play. The last five encounters have averaged 3.2 goals, and four of those five games saw both teams score. This historical data, combined with the current team form, makes a wager on the total an attractive option.
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals
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Sporting Clube de Portugal vs. Bodo Glimt
Bodo/Glimt have become the surprise of the tournament. The Norwegian champions are on an incredible four-game win streak in Europe, taking down giants like Manchester City, Atletico Madrid, and Inter. Their status as the first Norwegian club to reach this stage since 2000 is a testament to their quality.
The key to this first leg is Bodo/Glimt’s home advantage. They have been almost unbeatable at Aspmyra Stadion and will look to build a lead before the return trip to Lisbon. Their recent results show they have no fear and will deploy an aggressive, attacking game plan.
Sporting CP will present a major offensive threat themselves, as they lead their domestic league in scoring and average over two goals per game in the Champions League. However, this high-risk approach could play right into Bodo/Glimt's hands, who have proven they can punish the world's best teams in transition. This sets the stage for an entertaining, end-to-end battle.
Pick: Bodo/Glimt To Win & Over 2.5 Goals
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