Monaco (2-1-3) and Real Madrid (4-2) will face off today at 3:00 p.m. EST at Santiago Bernabeu in Madrid, Spain.
Real Madrid is favored at a -327 price, with the over/under set at 3.5 (-110o / -115u) goals.
Let's get into my Monaco vs. Real Madrid prediction.
Monaco vs. Real Madrid Prediction
Pick: Both Teams to Score: Yes
My Monaco vs. Real Madrid best bet is for both teams to score.
Monaco vs. Real Madrid Odds
| Monaco Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +104 | 3.5 -110o / -115u | +720 |
| Real Madrid Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -135 | 3.5 -110o / -115u | -327 |
Monaco vs. Real Madrid Pick
Pick: Both Teams to Score
While Real Madrid fields a supremely talented attack, the team's foundation shows cracks. The recent dismissal of manager Xabi Alonso and other internal issues have coincided with disappointing results. Defensively, Los Blancos have shown clear vulnerability, a key factor for our Monaco vs Real Madrid pick. They have conceded goals in their last four competitive matches, including three against second-tier Albacete. Advanced metrics support this observation; their expected goals against (xGA) figure of 8.6 is one of the worst in the competition.
On the other side, Monaco arrives in solid form. Although they have only scored seven goals in the competition, their expected goals (xG) number is a full 5.0 goals higher. This massive gap indicates they have been unlucky in front of goal and are due for an offensive breakout. Given Madrid’s defensive frailties, this match presents a perfect opportunity for Monaco’s attack to revert to the mean.
Monaco’s ability to create chances, combined with Real Madrid’s porous back line, makes a strong case for both teams to get on the scoreboard.
Monaco vs. Real Madrid Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Monaco | Draw | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | 13.2% | 77.3% |
Projected Total Goals
| Monaco | Total Goals | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 0.90 | 3.71 | 2.82 |
Monaco vs. Real Madrid Betting Analysis
The pressure in this matchup falls squarely on the shoulders of Real Madrid. For a club of their stature, anything short of a top-eight finish for direct qualification to the Round of 16 is a failure. After recent high-profile losses in the Spanish Super Cup and Copa del Rey, interim manager Alvaro Arbeloa knows his team must secure three points. The Spanish giants have lost two of their last three Champions League games and cannot afford another slip-up, especially at home.
For Monaco, this trip to the Bernabéu is a much lower-stakes affair. They can afford a loss, provided it does not severely damage their goal difference. This freedom from pressure could allow them to play an open, aggressive style. Monaco boasts the fastest counter-attack in the Champions League, a weapon that could prove highly effective against a Madrid side that will push forward.
The head-to-head history is dated, with the last competitive meetings in 2004. However, recent trends show promise for the visitors. Monaco is unbeaten in its last three matches against Spanish opposition. Meanwhile, Real Madrid has a split record in its last six games against French teams. This context, along with Madrid’s unconvincing home performances in the Champions League this season, suggests the French underdogs have more than a glimmer of hope to make this a competitive game.
